KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I've been following the GGEM for years..does it ever have two runs that are similar..the biggest flip flop model I have ever seen..nothing like a 400 difference in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just my weenie thoughts atm ... Over the weekend when the GFS consistently showed hit after hit, I thought at some point (it's infamous 4-7 day period) it would start to show a more OTS solution. Is that what we're seeing now? OTOH ... what the current 12Z GFS is depicting looks a little like what just occurred this weekend. This is a Nina winter and we maybe looking at some sort of pattern persistence here. I'm not drawling any conclusion; just throwing out some random thoughts. On to the 12Z Euro ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the pattern lately is for a storm to miss us to the south...Gun to my head first guess is for it to miss us to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone have the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I agree 100%. The NOGAPS having that solution is just unreal. now thats a red flag to the gfs and moreso the gem, if the nogaps has a monster being a progressive model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well he among others after busting badly with this weekend storm desperately need this to happen. For those that enjoy his input...JB just updated after the 12z runs He sees a nice 6-12 inch snow from Denver to Dulles (75 mi either side of that line) with the axis turning Northeast for NE and getting the big I-95 cities. Thinks the 12z run looks "feedbackish with it jumping a max out", but overall sees a big winter event just before and during Christmas and puts a "star on top of the Christmas tree of his white Christmas idea" forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the pattern lately is for a storm to miss us to the south...Gun to my head first guess is for it to miss us to the south... which is why im not a fan of the s/w dropping that far southeast. Just give me the bowling west to east. In la nina its hard as heck to get a storm coming up the coast with the fast flow as we have seen countless times so far this season when models have tried to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 which is why im not a fan of the s/w dropping that far southeast. Just give me the bowling west to east. In la nina its hard as heck to get a storm coming up the coast with the fast flow as we have seen countless times so far this season when models have tried to. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I agree 100%. The NOGAPS having that solution is just unreal. I think the Nogaps SE bias is slightly overstated. It exists to be sure, but not so much that you want to see it consistently showing a track well offshore. I prefer when it matches or lies just inside the GFS ensemble mean in the mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 heres the gfs indiv ens run at hr 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just my weenie thoughts atm ... Over the weekend when the GFS consistently showed hit after hit, I thought at some point (it's infamous 4-7 day period) it would start to show a more OTS solution. Is that what we're seeing now? OTOH ... what the current 12Z GFS is depicting looks a little like what just occurred this weekend. This is a Nina winter and we maybe looking at some sort of pattern persistence here. I'm not drawling any conclusion; just throwing out some random thoughts. On to the 12Z Euro ... If the pattern persists and some sort of suppressive out to sea solution verifies, then all we have done is kick the pattern changing storm (that was what it was on the 00z euro) can down the street. Eventually when the pattern changes (and it will), there will come an opportunity. Not a guarantee, but an opportunity. We have also not gained much forecast time today vs yesterday as the gfs/can ggem have slowed the arrival time of the low, so we have nearly as much of a gap between initialization and event time as we did yesterday. Nina deadline (for me) is within 96 hours (seems when these phased systems start getting unraveled), so we may have to wait til the 12z run on Wednesday for a clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think the Nogaps SE bias is slightly overstated. It exists to be sure, but not so much that you want to see it consistently showing a track well offshore. I prefer when it matches or lies just inside the GFS ensemble mean in the mid-range. but in this case its well nw of the gfs ens mean and ggem, which draws a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 heres the gfs indiv ens run at hr 138 If it means anything p010 had alot of big hits this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 but in this case its well nw of the gfs ens mean and ggem, which draws a red flag. Meh all still eye candy runs at this forecast time (except for the fim ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Meh all still eye candy runs at this forecast time (except for the fim ) the fim has been ots the whole time lol, which some models have gone to today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Apparently the ukie and ggem are east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Meh all still eye candy runs at this forecast time (except for the fim ) tony, whats causing this bowling ball now to track this far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 heres the gfs indiv ens run at hr 138 I'm not in love with those. We're following a similar pattern where the trof is modeled broader with successive model runs, and eventually the surface low takes a wide path through the SE and then threatens eastern NE as it matures and finally gains latitude. If I had to guess I would say this recovers a bit over the next few days and we get a surface low tracking slightly further north towards the Tenn. valley. But ultimately I think we'll have to wait on the second push of s/w energy to sharpen and negatively tilt our trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Apparently the ukie and ggem are east I dont believe I've seen anyone post on the 12z ukmet nor is it updated in the sites i have saved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think the Nogaps SE bias is slightly overstated. It exists to be sure, but not so much that you want to see it consistently showing a track well offshore. I prefer when it matches or lies just inside the GFS ensemble mean in the mid-range. Which it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 alright, the 12z euro has just initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 but in this case its well nw of the gfs ens mean and ggem, which draws a red flag. This run is. But I pay attention to nogaps signals only when it's consistently inside other guidance (at least 2-3 runs in a row). And still... it's offshore even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 tony, whats causing this bowling ball now to track this far south? These models slowing it down and the 24hr gaps I have from home make it hard, it looks like the 50/50 low doesn't get out of the way and the ridging out west is not as strong. Add this one to your arsenal: http://www.meteo.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html Walt Drag looks at this all of the time. You may not like what you see as of today, there are more ncep members in here than in e-wall, but its still too far away to make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 These models slowing it down and the 24hr gaps I have from home make it hard, it looks like the 50/50 low doesn't get out of the way and the ridging out west is not as strong. Add this one to your arsenal: http://www.meteo.gc....s/cartes_e.html Walt Drag looks at this all of the time. You may not like what you see as of today, there are more ncep members in here than in e-wall, but its still too far away to make a decision. eeeeekkk, the 12z run hasn't come out yet on that one correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 These models slowing it down and the 24hr gaps I have from home make it hard, it looks like the 50/50 low doesn't get out of the way and the ridging out west is not as strong. Add this one to your arsenal: http://www.meteo.gc....s/cartes_e.html Walt Drag looks at this all of the time. You may not like what you see as of today, there are more ncep members in here than in e-wall, but its still too far away to make a decision. Ouch that's ugly. Hard to even pick out favorable individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 eeeeekkk, the 12z run hasn't come out yet on that one correct? I've got to ask Walt the next time I see him when it comes available, I'm guessing after two since its the combination of Canadian ggem and gfs members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ouch that's ugly. Hard to even pick out favorable individual members. Do you mean the outcome its displaying, or the individual maps themselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 there are more hits on the 12z gfes than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 through 54, the euro looks slower again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Do you mean the outcome its displaying, or the individual maps themselves? I checked surface and 500hPa mean charts as well as individual members. Everything looked unfavorable. The maps themselves are also not colorful and pretty, but I didn't mean to disparage their usefulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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