NYC/PHL 12/21-12/27 Forecast Threats

[Parsley]

Big differences on the GFS for us eastern PA people vs. NYC/LI people. Ha, go figure.

Of course you near the coast are going to love this run, us inland over 100 miles, not so much.

[IsentropicLift]

provided the 12z euro keeps the slower timing and keeps the phasing in good agreement with its 00z run I see no reason why we can't really lock into this one. This may not end up being a large event for the entire coast but then again how often is that the case? In my opinion couldn't have realistically asked for a better jump out of the GFS in a single run. Out of curiosity any similarities with the Presidents day 03 storm?

[tombo82685]

a new yrs snow bomb on this run

[Ridingtime]

a new yrs snow bomb on this run

There are a lot of little nice snow threats after this storm per this model run. Doesn't really mean anything now, but it's nice to see that at least the cold sticks around.

[tombo82685]

I'm not too excited either. The initial potent s/w that traverses the country basically dampens in the ohio valley/mid-Atlantic by 120hr, and a separate s/w, or even two barely distinguishable perturbations/vorts dive in and significantly amplify the longwave trof to nearly save the day at the last minute. This seems like a nod to last night's Euro run. But it also means everything is delayed and we once again have trouble getting a surface low to gain latitude soon enough. I'd prefer the initial wave be stronger.

i agree, i hate these phasing and timing storms, someone gets screwed. With the bowling ball atleast that would bring everyone from nyc south atleast snow no matter what if it maintains its strength.

[Bluescat1]

This far out things are on track, I don't want to be in the bullseye this far from the event, it never works out.

[Parsley]

Man, never checked the 00z Euro this morning, its pretty close to the coast, ha? Wow!

[eduggs]

yup- and with the position of the h7 low one could argue that the significant precip should even be a smidge further west

The low level southerly flow out ahead of the storm is unsuccessful at penetrating very far inland. It looks cold and dry to the north with minimal frontside overrunning precip. Most of the QPF outside of ENE is wraparound, which is slightly less than ideal because the mid-level lows are offshore and moving NE.

[tombo82685]

wow does it cold at the end of this run, wowsers

[KEITH L.I]

wow does it cold at the end of this run, wowsers

very wintry with snow threats every other day on this run..no break in the pattern

[Bluescat1]

wow does it cold at the end of this run, wowsers

And a storm for New Years.

[Manny]

A very volatile set-up, and the GFS shows how a much earlier phase can give everyone snow, like the Euro, but a huge trend nonetheless in having the storm further south-more towards the depiction of the Euro, not the surface though.

[tombo82685]

gfs ens mean has a sub 1008 to sc coast then it goes ene ots from there

[tombo82685]

heres the gem at hr 96

[tombo82685]

color map for hr 108 of the gem

[eduggs]

heres the gem at hr 96

Significantly lower heights in the NE. The s/w trof is more positively tilted and everything shifted south. Ultimately this could produce a robust system, but we're moving away from the ohio valley low that the GFS showed for so many runs.

[goombatommy]

Man, never checked the 00z Euro this morning, its pretty close to the coast, ha? Wow!

You down there, should be more thankful than us up here We are usually borderline up here.

[tombo82685]

hr 120 on the gem, with a low sitting in se ga

[Zir0b]

s/w is much weaker on the GGEM compared to 0z and there's more confluence in the NE. Not liking what I see so far.

[whiteoutwx1796]

ggem is faster, no?

[Zir0b]

trough is too positively tilted on that 120 map, this will probably be a miss or a scraper.

[tombo82685]

s/w is much weaker on the GGEM compared to 0z and there's more confluence in the NE. Not liking what I see so far.

ridge axis is to far east also

[eduggs]

GGEM at 108hr looks promising, esp for the mid-atlantic. Trof axis is close to neutral just east of the Miss R. We have emergent gulf low instead of tenn or ohio valley low as in previous runs. "Northern stream" energy poised to dive into backside and sharpen trof structure. This breadth of a solution like this ups the potential but also decreases the likelihood of an actual impact, esp N and W of the cities.

[tombo82685]

hr 132 on color maps 1000 low off hse

[snywx]

GGEM at 120hr looks promising, esp for the mid-atlantic. Trof axis is close to neutral just east of the Miss R. We have emergent gulf low instead of tenn or ohio valley low as in previous runs. "Northern stream" energy poised to dive into backside and sharpen trof structure. This breadth of a solution like this ups the potential but also decreases the likelihood of an actual impact, esp N and W of the cities.

So whatelse is new?

[tombo82685]

hr 144 has 994 low heading ots

[Edge Weather]

12 UTC NOGAPS

[tombo82685]

12 UTC NOGAPS

now thats a red flag to the gfs and moreso the gem, if the nogaps has a monster being a progressive model.

[Zir0b]

yeah, not favorable developments so far with the strength/axis of the ridge and the strength of the southern s/w...not sure what the 12z Euro will do but I'll wager it won't be like the near perfect 0z solution.

[ChescoWx]

For those that enjoy his input...JB just updated after the 12z runs

He sees a nice 6-12 inch snow from Denver to Dulles (75 mi either side of that line) with the axis turning Northeast for NE and getting the big I-95 cities. Thinks the 12z run looks "feedbackish with it jumping a max out", but overall sees a big winter event just before and during

Christmas and puts a "star on top of the Christmas tree of his white Christmas idea" forecast