NYC/PHL 12/21-12/27 Forecast Threats

[blazess556]

the ridge out west is much stronger than 6z

[tornadojay]

i think it might go a bit southeast of the benchmark.

[tombo82685]

northern stream is just a little to late in phasing

[tombo82685]

sub 988 about a 150 miles or so east of lewes de

[hazwoper]

northern stream is just a little to late in phasing

But sounds like a step towards the Euro, yes?

[tombo82685]

lgt to mod precip over delmarva and i95 se

[tornadojay]

this is a nice run! this thing digs waayyy down.. would be nice if the whole thing closed off.. but there's still additional energy lagging behind it.

[Allsnow]

From the garden state parkway east does very well this run.......prob warnning snowfall

[IsentropicLift]

really couldn't have asked for a better step towards the euro at this point...too early for winter storm watches lol?

[tombo82685]

hr 144 nyc to sne gets hit good. lgt ot mod precip into phl

[LVblizzard]

Has the GFS even wavered more than 200 miles with the position of this low on the east coast over the past few days?

[blazess556]

good run. trends towards the euro and digs the energy much more

[tornadojay]

definitely hits eastern long island the hardest, but you have to be happy with this at this point in time.. it's not shabby at all.. who knows how correct it is though.

[tombo82685]

sne gets crushed this run

[Isotherm]

Slows the timing by quite a bit. We'd have no snow on the ground Christmas morning, but the slower movement would be well worth it by late day (as the Euro showed).

[Allsnow]

over a inch liquid for eastern LI and .75+ for nyc

phl close to .50

[tornadojay]

finally closed off by hour 153 or so.. it pretty much destroys new england

[Dsnowx53]

Definitely a trend towards the Euro. It slows down, digs a lot more, and is able to gain much more latitude WRT longitude than the 0z and 6z GFS did.

[Stormlover74]

Could still work out well. People can still have their christmas dinners (though we'll all be glue to our laptops) awaiting the snow to arrive lasting through sunday.

Slows the timing by quite a bit. We'd have no snow on the ground Christmas morning, but the slower movement would be well worth it by late day (as the Euro showed).

[earthlight]

sne gets crushed this run

So do most areas from Trenton northeast. UVV's are very impressive. Also, one hour quicker with the phase and this system probably buries everybody.

[am19psu]

Not to pee in everyone's cheerios, but I'm not all that excited about this run. Yes, the s/w digs to the Gulf Coast, but the ridging over the west is a bit farther east and the blocking/50-50 low out in front is farther east as well. Verbatim, it's a good run, but it's not great by any stretch for PHL south.

[KEITH L.I]

Could still work out well. People can still have their christmas dinners (though we'll all be glue to our laptops) awaiting the snow to arrive lasting through sunday.

from the GFS loks like light snow starts in the early afternoon christmas day looking at the RH fields

[Ridingtime]

Not to pee in everyone's cheerios, but I'm not all that excited about this run. Yes, the s/w digs to the Gulf Coast, but the ridging over the west is a bit farther east and the blocking/50-50 low out in front is farther east as well. Verbatim, it's a good run, but it's not great by any stretch for PHL south.

I think it's the trend from the previous runs people should be happy about. Only those who don't understand basic model analysis should feel disappointed about this model run.

[Zir0b]

not really liking this, it's another thread the needle event, although perhaps the needle is a bit bigger this time. We're relying on the northern stream to drop down and phase with the southern s/w...the southern s/w could easily escape as a weak wave off the southeast coast if we don't phase in time...and climatology would favor the latter possibility

[Stormlover74]

12/30/00 repeat?

Not to pee in everyone's cheerios, but I'm not all that excited about this run. Yes, the s/w digs to the Gulf Coast, but the ridging over the west is a bit farther east and the blocking/50-50 low out in front is farther east as well. Verbatim, it's a good run, but it's not great by any stretch for PHL south.

[Stormlover74]

I'm convinced every storm is a thread the needle event. We don't get the easy overrunning events anymore with large areas of precip running into cold air giving everyone a solid snowfall. Its either all or nothing lately

not really liking this, it's another thread the needle event, although perhaps the needle is a bit bigger this time. We're relying on the northern stream to drop down and phase with the southern s/w...the southern s/w could easily escape as a weak wave off the southeast coast if we don't phase in time...and climatology would favor the latter possibility

[am19psu]

12/30/00 repeat?

Nah, I'm not saying it's a full blown miss, just that I'm not as excited as the sfc/QPF pattern would suggest. There's a lot of room for this to slide OTS with the modeled H5 pattern.

[Ridingtime]

I'll take this trend any day:

12z GFS:

6z GFS:

[eduggs]

Not to pee in everyone's cheerios, but I'm not all that excited about this run. Yes, the s/w digs to the Gulf Coast, but the ridging over the west is a bit farther east and the blocking/50-50 low out in front is farther east as well. Verbatim, it's a good run, but it's not great by any stretch for PHL south.

I'm not too excited either. The initial potent s/w that traverses the country basically dampens in the ohio valley/mid-Atlantic by 120hr, and a separate s/w, or even two barely distinguishable perturbations/vorts dive in and significantly amplify the longwave trof to nearly save the day at the last minute. This seems like a nod to last night's Euro run. But it also means everything is delayed and we once again have trouble getting a surface low to gain latitude soon enough. I'd prefer the initial wave be stronger.

[ace0927]

yup- and with the position of the h7 low one could argue that the significant precip should even be a smidge further west

So do most areas from Trenton northeast. UVV's are very impressive. Also, one hour quicker with the phase and this system probably buries everybody.