Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 06 UTC NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Exactly where you want the NOGAPS to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks JUST like 96 IMO got 2' out of that one.. would love it if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 bout half...of pa..take the pt of va nw of dc by martinsburg and go due straight north... I know a QPF forecast is bothersome at this point but only .75-1" of QPF seems low doesn't it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If the GFS/NOGAPS are the only models being suppressed, we could be in a good position. Sometimes the GFS will play catch up after having a storm at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 06 UTC NOGAPS The NOGAPS ?? Don't get it ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Can't quite make out the upper levels (850/700) from the maps I'm looking at, but if things play out as the Euro depicts, there's appears to be some moisture influx, albeit a little late, from the GoM, which should help with the QPF. Like we always say, we're gonna thread the needle with this aspect as well. Too much backing of the flow and wrapping up and we'll be shaking Buckeye's hand; too little and we'll be looking at a PHL-south moderate event. Somewhere in the middle lies weenie nirvana. I should also add that I'm a little nervous that it's the Euro's bias that sets the table perfectly for the stream interaction, but as was said before, it still outperforms the other models in this range despite said bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone else concerned that the ridge is from GJT-BIS in the reforecast ensemble from yesterday at 12z? That said, the ridge is in perfect position in the 0z Euro Ensemble, so the reforecast ensemble may not be worth worrying about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 6z GFS cointinues the 0z trend of a sloppier phase and a weaker and further east surface low. Too early too tell if these were a few rouge runs or something we need to watch out for. i lean towards the first one considering the bombs the GGEM and Euro had at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow. Tremendous potential per Euro and GGEM/UK. Still along way out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It's still early on this one but the UK/Euro ensembles were pretty close last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12z NAM has a strong signal for a storm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 As I said last week, nobody should spend too much time on solutions which appear to be outliers. The one Euro solution that gave a big hit last week had virtually no support excpet from a few ensemble members. This time around, even though the 00z Euro appears to be an outlier, it has much better support from the other models. As one met said on the main thread, the NOGAPS seems to have a quick bias and if the GFS follows that model closely, its possible that the GFS is also too quick. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean seems to split the difference and that would mean a nice hit for most of us. Last week the overwhelming mean had just a brush and thats more or less what happened. Sounds like typical GFS to me....first to catch onto a major event but has no support. I remember one met saying that its solutions didn't even make sense considering its synoptic setup. Then...it looses the storm a few runs later only to bring it back 96-84hrs out. Look for it to be in good agreement with the euro by 12z or 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 not sure if I like the look of the NAM...the s/w is very strong so that's good...but it's also ripping through the lower 48, i don't think it would phase in time to give us a euro/ggem liike solution. nevertheless, we would probably still see some (good?) snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 something to note out the Mt. Holly AFD THE DRIVER IN THIS WHOLE PROCESS IS GOING TO BE A VORTEX OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, THAT WILL PUMP UP THE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM CARVE A STRONG TROF. THE UNCERTAINTY RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND FOR THE LIFETIME OF THIS EVENT IS THAT EASTERN PACIFIC VORTEX WHICH IS NEVER FORECAST TO REACH THE DATA RICH RAOB SITES IN NORTH AMERICA, BUT WITH TIME RETROGRADE TOWARD ALASKA. WE WILL BE ABLE TO MEASURE THE STRENGTH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING AS A BY-PRODUCT OF THE FORMER`S INFLUENCE. ON TONIGHT`S RUN THE MODEL EVOLUTION IN GENERAL WAS TOWARD STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE A GREATER TURN EXITING THE ROCKIES VS THE BEE-LINE THE MODELS GAVE IT LAST NIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS SLOWED THE PCPN ARRIVAL DOWN ON AVERAGE BY HALF A DAY. THE ECMWF DIGS THE INITIAL TROF MORE THAN ANY MODEL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOR NOW THIS SHOULD BE LOOKED WITH CAUTION AS IT IS A KNOWN MODEL BIAS. IT MADE THE SAME ERROR WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FASTER AND NOT AS TUCKED INTO THE NJ COAST. THE OP ECMWF SOLUTION AS IS WOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN FOR A WHILE IN EASTERN NEW JERSEY. CONVERSELY THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THAT`S ITS KNOWN MODEL BIAS. FOR THE GOLDILOCKS COMPROMISE TONIGHT WITH ANY ADJUSTMENTS WE MADE, WE WENT WITH A UKMET AND CAN GGEM COMPROMISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 not sure if I like the look of the NAM...the s/w is very strong so that's good...but it's also ripping through the lower 48, i don't think it would phase in time to give us a euro/ggem liike solution. nevertheless, we would probably still see some (good?) snows And what happens if the euro didnt phase? WAY south and no snow for our area. Would rather take my chances with a more northerly storm that even if it misses the phase, we still get decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Okay, what is the 06Z GFS going to do? A) Out to Sea B. Just inland C) Scraper D) Hit but not bad E) Monster hit F) Congrats Cleveland Bump for 12z gfs, taking bets right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Bump for 12z gfs, taking bets right now..... Scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 And what happens if the euro didnt phase? WAY south and no snow for our area. Would rather take my chances with a more northerly storm that even if it misses the phase, we still get decent snow. With this system I'm thinking even that won't help...notice on most models in the last 24 hours or so that by the time the system reaches the DC region its got very little precip left, the forcing really goes into the crapper as it reaches the OH Valley...this has to phase for anyone east of the Apps to see major snows....its not uncommon for these west-east movers to die as they get past the Chicago-St. Louis corridor, thats why it always helps to have a strong high over either Quebec or Maine to increase the overrunning impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Bump for 12z gfs, taking bets right now..... G) Something stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Bump for 12z gfs, taking bets right now..... I would go with either A or C, OTS or scraper. I think the GFS is in it's usual lose the storm mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its going to be a scraper or a complete miss, thats my guess, this tends to be the range where the GFS is often on the polar opposite with the Euro on these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Bump for 12z gfs, taking bets right now..... lol I'm not sure the GFS is ever going to catch onto this. Mt. Holly mentioned that the S/W in question will never be entering an area where it will be sampled better. I definitly think the higher res of the GGEM and Euro are helping their solutions. I hope it takes a track at least as nice as the 00z EC ensemble means but I'm guessing scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 G) Something stupid H) Solution that prompts SPC to put us in the High Risk zone for severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 f Its going to be a scraper or a complete miss, thats my guess, this tends to be the range where the GFS is often on the polar opposite with the Euro on these things. I find it interesting how the GFS and Euro seem to completely switch places on who's most bullish with the storm. The change too place at 0z last night, and I wonder what causes this because it happens often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Bump for 12z gfs, taking bets right now..... I'm feeling good after the EPIC EAGLES WIN, so I'm going with E FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW the SREF is in almost the same position with the surface low at 84rs as the 06z GFS at 90hrs except a tad more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS initialized...here we go............"crosses fingers" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll go with A..shoudn't be a problem..every and I mean every MECS the GFS has trouble with in 5 to 6 day range..you could look it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think I'll go with better than 6z GFS, but not a monster hit yet. Even the 6z GFS gave Phiilly 2-4/3-6 inches, but the coverage area wasn't wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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