Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here's the 156 hour CMC...very impressive solution, the Euro was a bit further west with more QPF/dynamics wow, looks like energy is diving straight down from the arctic! I love western ridges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow, this thread is alive right now for 2am on a Sunday night.. winter must be here. haha yea and winter break has started for some I assume.. i can't wait for 12z !! ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro's SW bias has historically had more impacts on its ultimate solututions over the Plains/Midwest than it does on the East coast so its possible the SW energy deal is not causing it to show too much of an error in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro's SW bias has historically had more impacts on its ultimate solututions over the Plains/Midwest than it does on the East coast so its possible the SW energy deal is not causing it to show too much of an error in the end. so basically what your saying is after holding it up in the sw to long, it speeds it up to fast in the midwest to make up for the time it was behind once it reaches the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 so basically what your saying is after holding it up in the sw to long, it speeds it up to fast in the midwest to make up for the time it was behind once it reaches the east coast? I'm not sure thats why or not but it does seem to be able to see through that bias to still outforecast the GFS most times despite the fact the GFS evolves things more accurately in the SW/southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 adam, when you start the next thread we need a more creative title lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 per dt FEB I told you that the last 12 runs of the GFS were BS.... the 0z GFS shift here is BIG and the identical surFace and 850 and 700 low of the ggeM and euro at 132 -168 hrs is STUNNING the fact that ggem supports euro and gfs is getting a clue is amazing news for us (NE).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The 00Z NOGAPS is fittingly progressive, alittle more than I'd like it to be relative to the other models but still close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The 00Z NOGAPS is fittingly progressive, alittle more than I'd like it to be relative to the other models but still close enough. It's evolution aloft is ridiculous, still...for a crappy and suppressed model this is alarming. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nobody here has mentioned (and probably doesn't care) that since it's Winter Solstace in about 24 hours or so, there ain't gonna be no sun angle to melt any of this away for a long, long time. Meaning that whatever falls and stays, is going to be here for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nobody here has mentioned (and probably doesn't care) that since it's Winter Solstace in about 24 hours or so, there ain't gonna be no sun angle to melt any of this away for a long, long time. Meaning that whatever falls and stays, is going to be here for quite a while. Considering every potential system in December has been a bust so far, I think people are only concerned about actually getting a storm at this point. At 6 days out, it's still obviously a question mark. Once we know we're gonna get a storm (if it happens), then we can think about your point. Let's not count our pennies before they hatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 gfs indiv ens at hr 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It looks like the trend has been south tonight with the initial shortwave and alot more digging...Lets hope these trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Great trends tonight...the fact that alot of models are in good agreement with the low and the pattern is good...makes this a legit threat...hopefully this continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 00Z KMA Hour 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 00Z KMA Hour 144 Thank you for flipping the image and saving me a permanent neck injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL earthlight anyone have the euro ens? i cant believe i am still up right now, 2 finals tomorrow and a blizzard on the euro has got be buzzed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 In other news the 06Z NAM continues to be bold with event NORLUN at 72-84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 In other news the 06Z NAM continues to be bold with event NORLUN at 72-84 hours. The NAM is having a hard time dealing with the current atmospheric pattern, a la the RUC last winter, my suggestion is to disregard the entire NAM output until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL earthlight anyone have the euro ens? i cant believe i am still up right now, 2 finals tomorrow and a blizzard on the euro has got be buzzed out Does this help? PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD400 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 ...WINTER STORM STILL INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATESCHRISTMAS WEEKEND...USED THE 00Z/20 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS GOODSUPPORT FROM THE LATEST UKMET WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DURING THEPERIOD. THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT ISWITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED DETERMINISTICMODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS. THESUPPRESSED TRACK IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE DICEY CHANCE THATSHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW WILL PHASE AT JUST THE RIGHTTIME AND TRAVERSE MOST OF THE NATION AS SUCH. THE ECMWF HASREASONABLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES FOR THE HANDLING OF THE FLOWCOMING INTO THE WEST COAST AS WELL UNDER THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Does this help? PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD400 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 ...WINTER STORM STILL INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATESCHRISTMAS WEEKEND...USED THE 00Z/20 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS GOODSUPPORT FROM THE LATEST UKMET WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DURING THEPERIOD. THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT ISWITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED DETERMINISTICMODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS. THESUPPRESSED TRACK IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE DICEY CHANCE THATSHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW WILL PHASE AT JUST THE RIGHTTIME AND TRAVERSE MOST OF THE NATION AS SUCH. THE ECMWF HASREASONABLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES FOR THE HANDLING OF THE FLOWCOMING INTO THE WEST COAST AS WELL UNDER THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM.CISCO but they are using the 00z euro for their 7day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 but they are using the 00z euro for their 7day? Looks that way to me via this image http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks that way to me via this image http://www.hpc.ncep....fcst_wbgpre.gif wow now that is impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Okay, what is the 06Z GFS going to do? A) Out to Sea B. Just inland C) Scraper D) Hit but not bad E) Monster hit F) Congrats Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Honestly, im predicting a coastal hugger from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Okay, what is the 06Z GFS going to do? A) Out to Sea B. Just inland C) Scraper D) Hit but not bad E) Monster hit F) Congrats Cleveland E, But I'm not very good at picking football teams either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 wow now that is impressive... Ok, the forecaster, Cisco, is a known Euro hugger for sure. If you read his model diag discos, he always goes with it. Not as all surprised he went with that solution. Btw, he is awful. Rosenstein is the best for the long range forecasts from HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ok, the forecaster, Cisco, is a known Euro hugger for sure. If you read his model diag discos, he always goes with it. Not as all surprised he went with that solution. Btw, he is awful. Rosenstein is the best for the long range forecasts from HPC. lol i figured, thanks for the heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is no where even near the ECM or the GGEM so much for that matter.... Basically a whiff at the surface http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06150.gif Less you in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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