ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the relative lack of QPF is extremely bothersome.... on a side note- this La Nina winter is surely looking more like a 95-96 type deal than a strong one....no? this is prob the easiest map i have had to make blue .75-1 pink 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 mother of god... but, the Euro is depicting the perfect solution 6-7 days out. Unfortunately it is highly likely we are going downhill from here, lol. Well, it looks like 96, then we are PERFECT! Lol it showed that pretty much the same way for roughly a week. Lock it in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 are u saying that most of Pa is in .75 or more? bout half...of pa..take the pt of va nw of dc by martinsburg and go due straight north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 mother of god... but, the Euro is depicting the perfect solution 6-7 days out. Unfortunately it is highly likely we are going downhill from here, lol. Yeah remember the Euro buried us just a couple days before today's storm that missed. Yeah this is a better setup, but considering it's 5+ days out it would be foolish to get excited. We know the model solutions will change many times during the week. No use going nuts over particular runs this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 mother of god... but, the Euro is depicting the perfect solution 6-7 days out. Unfortunately it is highly likely we are going downhill from here, lol. Maybe not this time; the consensus is that we get something at least, so good start. Not overly excited about great runs or down about bad runs yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the relative lack of QPF is extremely bothersome.... It really shouldn't be..it's 0.75 and it still snows after that..so it's probably like 0.8 or 0.9 for most areas. The CCB is extremely well developed and would likely yield more QPF given the synoptic setup. The QPF shouldn't be bothersome at 150 hrs...what should be bothersome is the fact that this solution isn't a 48 hr forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 and go due straight... For some reason i lol'ed at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the relative lack of QPF is extremely bothersome.... on a side note- this La Nina winter is surely looking more like a 95-96 type deal than a strong one....no? pretty sure you can at least double that QPF with a 979 mb surface low vertically stacked off the NJ coast under a deep 5H low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It really shouldn't be..it's 0.75 and it still snows after that..so it's probably like 0.8 or 0.9 for most areas. The CCB is extremely well developed and would likely yield more QPF given the synoptic setup. The QPF shouldn't be bothersome at 150 hrs...what should be bothersome is the fact that this solution isn't a 48 hr forecast Yeah, I would think with such a 979mb off Li, would yield higher QPF totals, but it doesn't matter. The Track is absolutely stunning, what beautiful upper air picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 would feel more comfortable if that was abt 75 miles further SE Don't worry about that, the X-Mas 2002 storm was closer than that at 976mb and the entire region was all snow....a system like that makes its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For some reason i lol'ed at this. lol i forgot the north part lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 As always, no need to focus on QPF for a 7-day forecast. Just seeing this run of the ECMWF also backed up by the GGEM is highly encouraging. A lot will depend on when the northern stream interacts and begins the phase. The GFS at 00z showed less interaction which allowed the storm to escape east enough before bombing out. The slower the progression, the better the chance of a major storm. Keep watching those trends and hopefully the models hone in on a solution over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It really shouldn't be..it's 0.75 and it still snows after that..so it's probably like 0.8 or 0.9 for most areas. The CCB is extremely well developed and would likely yield more QPF given the synoptic setup. The QPF shouldn't be bothersome at 150 hrs...what should be bothersome is the fact that this solution isn't a 48 hr forecast Totally agree, lets get this thing inside 100 hrs...but hopefully models stay consistent for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Don't worry about that, the X-Mas 2002 storm was closer than that at 976mb and the entire region was all snow....a system like that makes its own cold air. it rained for the first 12 hours of that storm...the we had like 6-8 hours of heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Don't worry about that, the X-Mas 2002 storm was closer than that at 976mb and the entire region was all snow....a system like that makes its own cold air. sorry, here's a noob question...: what do you mean by making its own cold air...?? i'm from Central LI and i'm a little bit worried about mixing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 doesn't the euro have a bias of being to slow? I thought i saw that somewhere or heard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Totally agree, lets get this thing inside 100 hrs...but hopefully models stay consistent for now sleepless week! well we thought that this time last week as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 good lord the cold after this storm on the euro is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 wow 850's are almost -10, not to mention the RH is all the way back into the tenn valley....impressive....and boston gets dryslotted (im just saying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I mentioned it a couple of times, also have heard a couple of of our red tags say the same thing. doesn't the euro have a bias of being to slow? I thought i saw that somewhere or heard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 good lord the cold after this storm on the euro is nuts. Tom, is it showing -nao/-ao in the later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A rapidly deepening system closing at all levels and with the blocking in place... the placement of the low on the euro is very close to perfect if not already so.. as long as the 850low is SE of us we should be mostly snow if not all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 it rained for the first 12 hours of that storm...the we had like 6-8 hours of heavy wet snow Thats the only storm on record where NYC saw 1 inch rain and then 6 inches of snow....its technically 5.5 but rounded off I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here's the 156 hour CMC...very impressive solution, the Euro was a bit further west with more QPF/dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 doesn't the euro have a bias of being to slow? I thought i saw that somewhere or heard it. it likes to hang energy in the SW US... but the fact that the ggem supports the euro is very very good tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 that is very jan 1996...maybe a smaller precip shield...but the upper levels look similar....not exact, but there are similarities Here's the 156 hour CMC...very impressive solution, the Euro was a bit further west with more QPF/dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thats the only storm on record where NYC saw 1 inch rain and then 6 inches of snow....its technically 5.5 but rounded off I assume. that is pretty amazing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow, this thread is alive right now for 2am on a Sunday night.. winter must be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Tom, is it showing -nao/-ao in the later frames. no, at hr 240, nao and ao are pos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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