Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i dont know- there is a closed h5 low in the ohio valley....i would think that would keep the SLP closer to the coast...and the trough is trying to go neg. I think the next panle would be pretty good considering its 144hrs out. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 current UKMET map @ 144 That looks much improved from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 96 has prceip starting to build into the plains, like john stated a good bit slower than 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro seems to be having trouble with it's northern stream component..and is very far south with the shortwave over the Southern Plains..doesn't look too hot so far. Doesn't look like any other model either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro is trying it's hardest to hang energy back in the southwest US..much slower getting it out of there euro SW US energy bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 102 has a 1012 low in north texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 108 hrs argues for this run to go pretty far east if the phase doesn't catch up rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 102 has a 1012 low in north texas at hr 102 the 0Z GFS has the SLP is NE Okla/SW Mo...so the Euro is significantly slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 108 has a sub 1012 low just north of dallas, tx lgt precip in northern and central plains, heavier stuff over tx and oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 108 hrs argues for this run to go pretty far east if the phase doesn't catch up rapidly. what else is new....Dr. No is back!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I agree that the UKMET looks nice and that in future panels, the storm will move more up than out. Just need it to go negative a little earlier and a little more ridging out ahead of it. P.S. - first post as a tagged met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 108 has a sub 1012 low just north of dallas, tx lgt precip in northern and central plains, heavier stuff over tx and oklahoma there is only abt a 350 mile diff between the gfs and the euro w/re to SLP placement and over 500 mile difference with regard to heavier precip....seems abt right to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 114 doesnt have a well defined surface reflection at all..lgt to mod precip iowa south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 sounds like the euro SW bias is in play here....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Northern stream coming in fast at 114 hrs but the surface low is ridiculously far south over Eastern TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lol hr 120 sub 1012 over central louisiana lgt to mnod precip iowa to la, with heavier stuff in la, ark, ms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Northern stream coming in fast at 114 hrs but the surface low is ridiculously far south over Eastern TX. well that would make it harder for the euro to pull an 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I agree that the UKMET looks nice and that in future panels, the storm will move more up than out. Just need it to go negative a little earlier and a little more ridging out ahead of it. P.S. - first post as a tagged met congrats man, i hope we see you posting a lot of your input in our threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Also very slow compared to other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Big phase occurring at 126 and the surface low is over Southeast Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lol hr 120 sub 1012 over central louisiana lgt to mnod precip iowa to la, with heavier stuff in la, ark, ms about 580 mile diff in SLP placement (using baton Rouge and Nashville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Also very slow compared to other guidance Yeah, The GGEM and UKIE were in or near northern AL by this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 126 sub 1012 low over mobile, al...lgt to mod precip in the ohio valley and over se states...precip wise it looks exactly like the gem did with alittle area of mod precip over ohio valley and more down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Big phase occurring at 126 and the surface low is over Southeast Mississippi. great, i take my 18Z GFS comment back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Big phase occurring at 126 and the surface low is over Southeast Mississippi. But is the phase early enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 132 sub 1008 low over se alabama, the northern stream is really starting to dive in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 132 sub 1008 low over se alabama, the northern stream is really starting to dive in 168 look slike UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Still lots of overrunning precip into the M/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 138 sub 1008 low over east central ga..lgt precip south of oh river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It's getting tugged north now at 144...DC is about to get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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