KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks like for NYC it we get light snow from midnight Christmas eve thru the morning of the 26th according to the 0z GFS..looking good,,better than the slop and dry slot issues on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hoping the GGEm and UK trend closer now. Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 5 to 6 days out, I am ok with this run. Not a great run, but not a terrible run. If you ask me the 18z gfs was a terrible run. Based on the GFS output SEPa is roughly 110hrs from the onset of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Details to be worked out but main point is the storm remains for 10 straight runs. As others said the setup is great, and the 18z was just crapola. The fear is a miss not a mix. Well said Tony. Fact is we've seen a storm depicted for this time frame for several days now - that's a very strong signal. Other models have detected the threat and are responding according. The timing of the phase is going to be the potential issue. Ridge out West is nice but the axis is a bit east of where we'd like it for a guaranteed snow. Near-miss is definitely an option that can't be ruled out at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'd take an inch or two on Christmas instead of about 4" changing to rain. Even though this run isn't a blizzard it's still very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i think a track in between the 18z and the 00z is more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Interesting run, I'd be nice if it would phase earlier so everyone can get in on the heavier QPF. Still wondering if Boston can receive any significant snow in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 another big diff on this run was the reappearance of the 50/50 low that the 18z kicked out Yeah, that 50-50 helps hold the confluence over sern canada and keeps our short wave from closing off too early. With that said we don't want an overbeaing 50-50 that will force a later phase. Although the pattern is excellent we still need some things to fall into place for this to be a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sign me up for 2-4 inches of snow now! Anything more I'll consider an extra stocking stuffer. Waiting on the GGEM before bedtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is going to be a crappy winter, i'm telling ya..... thanks for your valuable contribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks like for NYC it we get light snow from midnight Christmas eve thru the morning of the 26th according to the 0z GFS..looking good,,better than the slop and dry slot issues on 18z Personally I think this scenario would be a nightmare for NYC north, with just a dusting in the City, heavy snow S and E, and partly cloudy to the north. The 18z scenario would at least result in several inches on the ground and a fresh coating at the end from CNJ north. Hopefully a compromise solution is in order and we don't have to choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i think a track in between the 18z and the 00z is more accurate. Personally I think it ends up as a track in between the two, but closer to the 0z, kind of like what the Euro showed in terms of track today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 People need to stop reading these model outputs at this time like it's fact. I know I am stating the obvious, but for some reason it gets under my skin when in this time frame people get hung up on the details and loose sight of the fact that its the upper level pattern that matters the most. And quite frankly, it's still looking good and the potential is way better than it has ever been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 People need to stop reading these model outputs at this time like it's fact. I know I am stating the obvious, but for some reason it gets under my skin when in this time frame people get hung up on the details and loose sight of the fact that its the upper level pattern that matters the most. And quite frankly, it's still looking good and the potential is way better than it has ever been. ++++++++++11111111111111 Ridgingtime thank you very much for this post. I was reading the 00z thread on the main forum, and I just couldn't take it anymore. The H5 looks good, the storm is still there, that is all you could ask for at this point. Do people expect the models to show a HECS every run from here until next weekend? Even during our big storms last year the models were all over the place leading up to them...Sheesh its frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So help me if i see one more post by DT in the general thread on how much Richmond is getting I'm going to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So help me if i see one more post by DT in the general thread on how much Richmond is getting I'm going to lose it. He actually seems to like this as a general threat to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So help me if i see one more post by DT in the general thread on how much Richmond is getting I'm going to lose it. thats why i stay here, cause its focused on this area no other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The very slow GGEM has begun and is out to 24h. The ggem has been consistent with keeping this system suppressed and mostly a miss for our area. It'll be interesting too see how it or if it trends either way closer or mainly south and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 thats why i stay here, cause its focused on this area no other areas. I don't blame you. I think i'll stay away from the general threads also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The very slow GGEM has begun and is out to 24h. The ggem has been consistent with keeping this system suppressed and mostly a miss for our area. It'll be interesting too see how it or if it trends either way closer or mainly south and OTS. I know I should probably know this but where do you guys get those black and white GGEM maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I know I should probably know this but where do you guys get those black and white GGEM maps? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I know I should probably know this but where do you guys get those black and white GGEM maps? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 All I know is that if you live and die by every model run, then you'll drive yourself crazy. Don't expect a major snowstorm but many of us will probably get a few inches for Christmas although a whiff is still on the table. I think many people assume that because the overall pattern shows blocking and a western ridge that they'll see a big storm. There's a reason why we rarely see big snow events and that's because the pattern has to be nearly perfect for that to happen and it almost never is. This time the pattern is close to being great but it's not enough, unless things change in the next few days. Plus, in a Nina, light to moderate events are generally the rule. As for the gfs, I think the low is too far south, whether or not it phases, the surface low should exit off of Virginia, which is far enough north to give us a nice little Christmas snow event. Generally in these types of bowling ball systems, the latitude they enter in from the Pacific is the latitude they will exit out from in the Atlantic and that latitude at this time would be around Virginia. Obviously if we see a phase, we'll get a good deal more snowfall than currently depicted but the broad trough and its location at this time are a bit unfavorable for a big phase. Like I said, to get a big storm around here, things have to be perfect. In this case, being almost there would favor smaller amounts, not significant ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 gfs ens mean take a sub 1012 low looked to be centered over sc then scoots its off cape fear, nc then scoots it ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So help me if i see one more post by DT in the general thread on how much Richmond is getting I'm going to lose it. I'm with you man. The dude is a good forecaster and I am thankful for his contributions to this board, but he tends to live model by model run when he is in a good snow range. When he is not, he is blasting everyone else who is reading a model like its fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 gfs ens mean take a sub 1012 low looked to be centered over sc then scoots its off cape fear, nc then scoots it ots The ensembles are usually a bit SE of the op, so that's not too surprising. The op is most important anyway IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 gfs ens mean take a sub 1012 low looked to be centered over sc then scoots its off cape fear, nc then scoots it ots All the snow hounds would love that if NYC was ultimately going to miss anyway, the mentality for many on this board is "screw me, then just screw everyone" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 heres the gem at hr 108, looks to be a little south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 heres the gem at hr 108, looks to be a little south of 12z Old run tombo (sun 12/19 00z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Old maps, Tombo. Here's the new GGEM. Looking pretty damn good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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