tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 123 sub 1008 low over eastern ten...lgt precip over pa...its almost comical the h5 differences from 18z compared to 0z run of the gfs right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 123 sub 1008 low over eastern ten...lgt precip over pa...its almost comical the h5 differences from 18z compared to 0z run of the gfs right now Northern stream ready to dive in and turn it on its side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It is possible the NAM is having problems with this unusual pattern, a la the RUC last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Not a particularly high amplitude trof on this run. I prefer amplitude to get more people involved up and down the coast. This should still produce an acceptable solution however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It is possible the NAM is having problems with this unusual pattern, a la the RUC last winter. It's the NAM, it's always having problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 135 sub 1000 low over hse lgt to mod precip up to m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The difference between 18z and 0z at 132hrs is comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 135 sub 1000 low over hse lgt to mod precip up to m/d line So far looking like the Euro to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well this is the first lousy run in days. Trof is too broad. But last two runs are good bookends at the extremes of the ensemble spectrum. The threat is still legit. Not so bad for mid-atlantic on second look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the northern stream energy is a bit late in phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 so we go from a i95 track to a surpressed delmarva jackpot on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For those viewing mobil-ey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So far looking like the Euro to you? no the euro phased it a little quicker, the gfs is a little late thus it brushes coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the northern stream energy is a bit late in phasing in. Yeah...let's hope they don't grow further apart in coming runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 so we go from a i95 track to a surpressed delmarva jackpot on the 0z I think the 00z solution is a lot more realistic than last run. The close off that early was just absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 no the euro phased it a little quicker, the gfs is a little late thus it brushes coastal areas Still get a few frames of light snow. Somewhere in the middle of 18z and 00z would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Still snowing at hr. 156. So while it's light, it's a lengthy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks like .25-.3 for phl, a pro longed lgt snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is going to be a crappy winter, i'm telling ya..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A little quicker w/ the phase and close off, we'd be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 like snowgoose said, i think the gfs is a little to far south, i think the end result will be a track across southern or central va...the ridge axis out west though looks beautiful, the northern stream was just late on the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is a nice run. I imagine the precip shield is a little meager toward our area because the phase is a bit wonky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is a fine run in my eyes..I like the upper air setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Much better than the absurd 18z solution. I'll take it this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM is very robust with this shortwave already into the CONUS at 84 hrs. We're just a day or two away from getting into serious discussions with this system..the players will be on the field shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is a fine run in my eyes..I like the upper air setup. Agree, very close to a big hit, and the H5 makes much more sense than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The difference between 18z and 0z at 132hrs is comical. They're different to be sure, but not comical IMO. The past two operational runs have been represented in the ensemble populations... moreso the slightly offshore track. I'm never too surprised to see a solution that is similar to any of the individual ensemble members from recent cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Details to be worked out but main point is the storm remains for 10 straight runs. As others said the setup is great, and the 18z was just crapola. The fear is a miss not a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Agree, very close to a big hit, and the H5 makes much more sense than 18z. another big diff on this run was the reappearance of the 50/50 low that the 18z kicked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 5 to 6 days out, I am ok with this run. Not a great run, but not a terrible run. If you ask me the 18z gfs was a terrible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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