snowman21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ThAts the snow map from the last storm. Toss itIt's time stamped 7 am Friday Feb 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MA and RI weather forecasters seem to agree that RI is going to get mostly rain out of this, after about 3-5" of snow. Depressing, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 2/5/01.... a day full of nudity here awesome storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nope. Check the timestamp. Fresh.Ok my bad I guess but I have a feeling they will update it at 4:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm on NCEP. NAM is digging further in the gulf @ 30, more energy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I have news for you regarding the HPC....great organization, and they have a wealth of talent; however employing them as a means to revolt against a trend is in ill fated endeavor because they always lag behind trends. Now, they do this for a reason, but nevertheless... I wouldn't use them as an excuse to ignore blatant trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know some may chastize me for whining, blah, blah, but I have to point out that the one time that the amped EURO runs are right, is the one time that most of sne doesn't want it to be. What about the twleve times it tried to model a blizzard?? No soup!! Progressive regime, sw cut offs, etc, etc....but when we need a tic east, we can't even get a slight nudge east....nope. The southern stream is different Well, nw NE is due, anyway... I've been feeling the track over CQX since last night when Euro didn't budge and then UKIE cam in way amped. May still have the ACK track but closer in seems a better bet currently. You still get a pasting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 2/5/01.... a day full of nudity here awesome storm Biggest storm in the Southern Pioneer Valley until Feb/Nemo last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That map looks reasonable. Probably a bit aggressive in CT per euro, but overall good guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro ens look even with the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ok my bad I guess but I have a feeling they will update it at 4:00 That's a dumb feeling. This graphic was release ahead of the rest of their products but is nonetheless part of their afternoon package. I'm not really sure why you'd think an update would be necessary at 4 to a map issued around 3:10, especially when it seems rather reasonable with what we've been looking at guidance-wise today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can't get the model center to even work. Blows. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight. You know you're getting front end. Beyond that is up for grabs in your BY. Andover is kind of close to the ocean so you could taint but Ray will outdo you in this event I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Watches up already for BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Watches up here, Don't see this often enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We don't get blizzards in GC. This storm looks pretty much perfect for the Berkshires, S VT, and E NY as it stands right now. There's a strong mesoscale snow band signal for this neck of the woods as a result of strong deformation and a healthy CCB on the backside of this low pressure that could result in an extended period of 1-2" per hour snows. I have a hard time seeing how most of SNE save for the Berkshires and northern ORH hills stay all snow with this as the low will likely be a classic coastal hugger. As such, there's a good chance that a good chunk of VT and the Berkshires will finally get a good storm after a streak of lows that tracked near or SE of the benchmark fringed or whiffed this area. That said, a quick front end dump featuring up to 6-10" of snow is possible before many areas of SNE flip. Some of the SE areas will likely see less than this and may not reach warning criteria though. Rain combined with a heavy snowpack in areas that change over could result in localized street flooding and roof leaks. Although perhaps a little extreme with its 971 mb low, I think the 12z GGEM is most in line with how I think this event will pan out. I favor a Montauk/Block Island to CC type track. Euro is a little funky and how it closes things off so quickly and GFS is still too far east. This will be a big ticket event for the interior. Boy, I'd have thought so, but the BOX map looks to be tailing off the further northwest you go. Mirrors the outline of their probability maps from earlier. Whatever. Looks like the new #1 CIPS analog is 2/5/01...one of my favorite storms...lol. That was insane. I was in Westfield at the time. We got over 22" in about 8 or 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is a model Mexican standoff...none are backing down and in fact they're hunkering down. The NAM is Yosemite Sam. NAM slowed towards consensus but maintains a similar track that pounds a lot of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM looks nice. One thing looks certain...regardless of p-type, this looks to be a pretty good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GYX Forecast Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is a model Mexican standoff...none are backing down and in fact they're hunkering down. The NAM is Yosemite Sam. NAM slowed towards consensus but maintains a similar track that pounds a lot of SNE. Euro/Ukie are prob a bit slow, but NAM is def way too fast I think. They'll converge eventually in the next 24 hours with the NAM moving much more than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd go with a Euro, Canadian, and UKMET blend. But I would pick out the best parts of each! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Call me a weenie but something just tells me the NAM is going to end closer to the final outcome than the Euro. I remember one or 2 miller a's that the NAM did very well on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Biggest storm in the Southern Pioneer Valley until Feb/Nemo last year. Epicosity ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight. You know you're getting front end. Beyond that is up for grabs in your BY. Andover is kind of close to the ocean so you could taint but Ray will outdo you in this event I think. Well, I'm on Andover line on SW end so I'm directly north of Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well...I think I'm even less confident today than I was yesterday regarding the outcome IMBY. West of 495 should be crushed. Living life on the edge here. As usual. 2-15" should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM looks nice. One thing looks certain...regardless of p-type, this looks to be a pretty good storm. Thats the best way to look at it...yea we all want our windows covered the most but the impact this will have on the entire east coast will be awesome to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Call me a weenie but something just tells me the NAM is going to end closer to the final outcome than the Euro. I remember one or 2 miller a'd that the NAM did very well on You're a weenie. . When NCEP is telling you not to pay attention to it, I'd be reluctant to latch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Call me a weenie but something just tells me the NAM is going to end closer to the final outcome than the Euro. I remember one or 2 miller a's that the NAM did very well on OK, weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Call me a weenie but something just tells me the NAM is going to end closer to the final outcome than the Euro. I remember one or 2 miller a's that the NAM did very well on At least you are admitting this is a big weenie statement. NAM doesn't have much support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At least you are admitting this is a big weenie statement. NAM doesn't have much support. Just a gut feeling. Either way it's a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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