40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know some may chastize me for whining, blah, blah, but I have to point out that the one time that the amped EURO runs are right, is the one time that most of sne doesn't want it to be. What about the twleve times it tried to model a blizzard?? No soup!! Progressive regime, sw cut offs, etc, etc....but when we need a tic east, we can't even get a slight nudge east....nope. The southern stream is different Well, nw NE is due, anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd go with a Euro, Canadian, and UKMET blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That storm was totally different..that was a cold fluff bomb. I don't see the similarities at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My guess is e pym county 1-2 outer cape nada. Then 2-4 shading se ct to pvd to cambridge to essex county (e of 95) i see 4-6 from IJD to Cumberland wilmington to n andover. 6-8 nw of that line over to Pepperell sw to shrews bury to just se of rev. 8-10 rev to n orh to birving and i see 14-18 far w ma .02 cents. That map has a zero percent chance of verifying... because SE CT is OKX, lol. Other than that, seems reasonable to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We had lots of storms like this when I was a kid. Worcester would get slammed but Boston would go over to rain and the proverbial rain snow line was Rte 128 to 495. Looks to be lining up like than for this one. I remember a lot of storms that would crush Albany, and we would end up with a sloppy 6-8". (Christmas 2002 for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know some may chastize me for whining, blah, blah, but I have to point out that the one time that the amped EURO runs are right, is the one time that most of sne doesn't want it to be. What about the twleve times it tried to model a blizzard?? No soup!! Progressive regime, sw cut offs, etc, etc....but when we need a tic east, we can't even get a slight nudge east....nope. The southern stream is different Well, nw NE is due, anyway... Just completely ignore the ensembles being south and east and the HPC preferring a further east track. Also completely ignore the fact there has been convective feedback issues, and much complexity with the storm. So, I don't see how you are already completely writing off the storm and considering no further trends. Obviously, NNE and further north and west are favored but we could be pummeled too. It's still several model suites out. Worst case track over the Cape, Will didn't like on the 12z EURO. Between that, the GEM is the other toaster bath and no one even takes that model seriously. Our most respect mets like the ACK or near it track which is a fantastic snowstorm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Messy storm. I cannot see this area getting more than 6 inches before a turn to slop. Even that number may be a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That storm was totally different..that was a cold fluff bomb. I don't see the similarities at all They mean the evoloution and track of the cyclone....it does compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just so you know and I'm sure you do...it's been happening for a few weeks. I get errors periodically that dump to the DB crash page even when we're tracking an OES event and there's nothing else going on. Also, the home page has no link to the models or forums even when logged in. Euro looks pretty good through 6 hours when compared to obs and the RUC analysis etc. Good luck to forecasters with this one. we disabled the board hooks which include the menu links. Just go to models.americanwx.com and you'll be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just completely ignore the ensembles being south and east and the HPC preferring a further east track. Also completely ignore the fact there has been convective feedback issues, and much complexity with the storm. So, I don't see how you are already completely writing off the storm and considering no further trends. Obviously, NNE and further north and west are favored but we could be pummeled too. It's still several model suites out. Dude, I just got out of a 2 hour meeting, so the ens are news to me. Regardless, that post was theoretical, not declarative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow map will be out @ 4pm per BOX Looks like they are early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I remember it...was not a fluff bomb. It was similar in setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That storm had very little cold air to work with. I was in ALB at the time, and that mega band from SE NY to W. Mass and NH skunked me into getting "only" 6 or 7", being just outside of it. That storm was totally different..that was a cold fluff bomb. I don't see the similarities at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dude, I just got out of a 2 hour meeting, so the ens are news to me. Regardless, that post was theoretical, not declarative. I just can't stand when you are on the ledge. I want you to enjoy the storm we have coming. Great map from BOX @ this stage. Utterly perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREF joined the torchaplooza too. 850 0c cuts from a NYC/PSM line. Juiced too.1.50" plus in SE MA/CC. Nice front-end thumper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like they are early. Sitting right on the fence of the 6-8/8-10 lol. Here we go.,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREF joined the torchaplooza too. 850 0c cuts from a NYC/PSM line. Juiced too.1.50" plus in SE MA/CC. Nice front-end thumper. Well ,at least its the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like they are early. That is more bullish for this neck of the woods (central CT) than I expected given the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ThAts the snow map from the last storm. Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like this NAM run is heading toward more amplified.. It's sharper in the Dakotas with stronger feed-in max velocities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That is more bullish for this neck of the woods (central CT) than I expected given the 12z runs. Agreed... I would shift the heavier totals Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just can't stand when you are on the ledge. I want you to enjoy the storm we have coming. Great map from BOX @ this stage. Utterly perfect. I just can't stand when you are on the ledge. I want you to enjoy the storm we have coming. Great map from BOX @ this stage. Utterly perfect. On the ledge? Worst case is 6" here...just mean that a slight nudge would be much more, but seems stubbornly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 5" on box map in melrose . Id take it but man what a w-e gradient. Essex county has 1-2 on cape Ann and 10-14 in nw part of county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ThAts the snow map from the last storm. Toss it Nope. Check the timestamp. Fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ThAts the snow map from the last storm. Toss it Graphic last modified: Tuesday, 11th February, 2014 @ 2:55PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just completely ignore the ensembles being south and east and the HPC preferring a further east track. Also completely ignore the fact there has been convective feedback issues, and much complexity with the storm. So, I don't see how you are already completely writing off the storm and considering no further trends. Obviously, NNE and further north and west are favored but we could be pummeled too. It's still several model suites out. Worst case track over the Cape, Will didn't like on the 12z EURO. Between that, the GEM is the other toaster bath and no one even takes that model seriously. Our most respect mets like the ACK or near it track which is a fantastic snowstorm for us. Good post and I agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro ensembles seem to mirror the OP run every run almost...they are also weaker/warmer with the system like the OP run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Essex county map tells me thats today's "screw off if u live near the ocean map" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can't get the model center to even work. Blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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