TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 link ...twitter or news broadcast Noyes is harping north shore blizzard potential Pickles... https://twitter.com/MattNoyesNECN There are several recent tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Man how media has this already going to the further hyperbolic fever pitch: Forecast: Historic, crippling, catastrophic ice "So what are you telling us exactly..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS Boston @NWSBoston Snow, psbl change to mix/rain Thu PM, esp near 495. 6"+ psbl. @BostonWxCast Thoughts for interior NE MA? Tough one for my locale particularly. I could get absolutely pummeled or I could mix. Ugh! This is most model addicted I have been since last years blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 accuweather is calling it a blizzard on their map in a strip from sw va all the way to n me, just inland from the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 accuweather is calling it a blizzard on their map in a strip from sw va all the way to n me, just inland from the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys from HFD-ORH and GAY will get a nice front ender even verbatim. Like Will...I'm a little skepticle of that solution in terms of the 500mb evolution, but for BOS and points SE...it likely doesn't matter much unless this tracks closer to ACK. Hopefully this shuts up the VT crowd. No offense guys. lol the storm hasn't happened yet. Wait for the other shoe to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BOX is doing a Q&A with the public on twitter. Mainly cautious with all comments as well expected. If you are interior all they are saying is 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BOX is doing a Q&A with the public on twitter. Mainly cautious with all comments as well expected. If you are interior all they are saying is 6+. Of all the systems to do it with... this one? I'd rather run the Cleveland Browns than answer "my backyard" Twitter inquiries on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 blizzard is such an overused term. do they really think we go 3 hours with frequent gust of 35? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Such a tough system......the only thing I'm confident about is the front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Updated HPC/WPC Model Discussion MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD213 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014VALID FEB 11/1200 UTC THRU FEB 15/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...==============================================12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES==============================================NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TOSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.==============================================...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLEMEANCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE...BELOW AVERAGE FORPRECIPITATION TYPEDESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVINGENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANTMODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THATTHIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ANDSNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EASTCOAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TOONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THECENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING ASIT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKSIN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST.THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHENMEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSEDCIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THESURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND ISCORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE MOST CONSISTENTOPERATIONAL MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE BEEN THE ECMWF ANDUKMET...AND THEY DISPLAYED THE SAME TREND ON THE 12ZCYCLE...SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHICH YIELDS A WARMER SOLUTION NORTHWARDALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BLENDING THESE TWOMODELS TOWARD THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS OUR APPROACH FOR FAVORING THEMORE CONSISTENT MODELS THAT ARE DISPLAYING SMALL SCALETRENDS...WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE CONTINUED WIDER RANGE OFSOLUTIONS REPRESENTED ESPECIALLY BY THE FASTER NCEP GUIDANCE. THEGEFS MEAN CLUSTERED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHEREASTHE OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER.THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUNDID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICHYIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TOPUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Such a tough system......the only thing I'm confident about is the front end dump. Agreed. Hopefully it comes in strong. Otherwise, it's 2-5" to rain and then curtains. Sticking to my guns and going 5-8" here. Probably 4-7" for YBY. 3-6" BOS. 6-9" for Ray. 10+ Kevin to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm looks pretty much perfect for the Berkshires, S VT, and E NY as it stands right now. There's a strong mesoscale snow band signal for this neck of the woods as a result of strong deformation and a healthy CCB on the backside of this low pressure that could result in an extended period of 1-2" per hour snows. I have a hard time seeing how most of SNE save for the Berkshires and northern ORH hills stay all snow with this as the low will likely be a classic coastal hugger. As such, there's a good chance that a good chunk of VT and the Berkshires will finally get a good storm after a streak of lows that tracked near or SE of the benchmark fringed or whiffed this area. That said, a quick front end dump featuring up to 6-10" of snow is possible before many areas of SNE flip. Some of the SE areas will likely see less than this and may not reach warning criteria though. Rain combined with a heavy snowpack in areas that change over could result in localized street flooding and roof leaks. Although perhaps a little extreme with its 971 mb low, I think the 12z GGEM is most in line with how I think this event will pan out. I favor a Montauk/Block Island to CC type track. Euro is a little funky and how it closes things off so quickly and GFS is still too far east. This will be a big ticket event for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agreed. Hopefully it comes in strong. Otherwise, it's 2-5" to rain and then curtains. Sticking to my guns and going 5-8" here. Probably 4-7" for YBY. 3-6" BOS. 6-9" for Ray. 10+ Kevin to ORH 5-10" is a large, but accurate range from Brookline-Woburn-Interior 128 away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is the only system that destroys everyone with heavy snow and the HPC say get rid of it. So why are we even taking big storm. GFS is SO much weaker and crappier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow map will be out @ 4pm per BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the new #1 CIPS analog is 2/5/01...one of my favorite storms...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is the only system that destroys everyone with heavy snow and the HPC say get rid of it. So why are we even taking big storm. GFS is SO much weaker and crappier. I would ride the Euro. It has been consistent, although I think it's latest run isn't the ultimate outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the new #1 CIPS analog is 2/5/01...one of my favorite storms...lol. I mentioned that event yesterday. Congrats, Springfield, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the new #1 CIPS analog is 2/5/01...one of my favorite storms...lol. Not surprising. I had that thought today and the airmass for us coasties is slightly better it seems but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Heading up to Wa Wa @9am thurs to hide from pm rains. If i hear mpm complain about this thing for his area...we need to do something. Lol jk mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not surprising. I had that thought today and the airmass for us coasties is slightly better it seems but close. what was the result of that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 what was the result of that storm? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/FE060114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the new #1 CIPS analog is 2/5/01...one of my favorite storms...lol. Lines up well with EURO 12z snow maps from NW NJ to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/FE060114 Thanks. That works for me - this event can't get here soon enough...I am tired of the model ups and downs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pretty much my expectations for SE Mass: FEB 6 2001 ...BRISTOL COUNTY... EAST MANSFIELD 4.6 12:12 AM ATTLEBORO 3.0 4:55 PM DIGHTON 2.3 3:50 PM NEW BEDFORD 2.0 2:50 PM ...PLYMOUTH COUNTY... BRIDGEWATER 2.5 3:45 PM WAREHAM 1.5 5:15 PM ...BARNSTABLE COUNTY... SANDWICH 1.0 6:50 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 blizzard is such an overused term. do they really think we go 3 hours with frequent gust of 35? I doubt it happens for either of us, but maybe PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully this shuts up the (western) VT crowd. No offense guys. Fixed this for ya. We're doing just fine here on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow map will be out @ 4pm per BOX My guess is e pym county 1-2 outer cape nada. Then 2-4 shading se ct to pvd to cambridge to essex county (e of 95) i see 4-6 from IJD to Cumberland wilmington to n andover. 6-8 nw of that line over to Pepperell sw to shrews bury to just se of rev. 8-10 rev to n orh to birving and i see 14-18 far w ma .02 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We had lots of storms like this when I was a kid. Worcester would get slammed but Boston would go over to rain and the proverbial rain snow line was Rte 128 to 495. Looks to be lining up like than for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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