Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM for the good folks who understand snow maps have variances but show trends and a publically posted WXbell graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Everything coming east together perfectly for a one of a kind 2 part bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow, the 18z GFS gives ORH like 6-8" of snow in 6 hour at the end. This is true but it also shifted about 150 miles east with that feature in 1 6hr run. Yikes...forecasting nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18Z GFS is crazy around here. About .4" of snow QPF on the front side. A lull, then about .6" QPF of sleet (I think) in about a 3 hour period, then another 4-5" of snow. I have no idea how this is going to play out, but doubt it will be exactly like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM for the good folks who understand snow maps have variances but show trends and a publically posted WXbell graphic The 18z RGEM was really good for the back end CCB further east than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Everything coming east together perfectly for a one of a kind 2 part bomb If we are being honest about it, everything but the best global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM for the good folks who understand snow maps have variances but show trends and a publically posted WXbell graphic Snow maps do have variances, like how they are produced. WeatherBell happens to produce maps that show all snow for temps below freezing. Not so useful when mixing is a distinct possibility. I'm not sure how the CMC produces it, so I can't really comment on its validity. QPF is more useful, and even then that's a pretty poorly forecast variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The new warning for the northern zones is now calling for 12-16. It's nice to have the foot-mark as your basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well at this point, ride the Euro and see what 0Z brings to the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's 12-18 there Some of that is wasted on warmth but about maybe 10-12" for you on that run. I think you'll easily eclipse 12"+ up there. This storm is going to trend colder right up to now-cast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HL is is going for 1-3 in BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HL is is going for 1-3 in BOS kill me now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HL is is going for 1-3 in BOS Harvey? Wow! Hard to go against him.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My daughter in Virginia is enjoying heavy snow at 18*. Progged up to 14" there. Bring it north, mates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OKX is pretty bullish, forecasting 10-14 around here. I can't seem to upload the graphic without getting an error, but here's the link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php I've bought lift tickets to Mount Snow for Friday. Should be epic if we can get there (driving up early Friday morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The trend with part 2 is hard east it seems. But we'll have to see if that carries this evening. Another shift like that and even I'm in the game at the end. Harv going light...TBH that doesn't surprise me I think with the high retreating we torch quick with some of those earlier solutions. The lowest levels will warm faster than we think and at the same time it's warming aloft...but that may all be moot after the 0z run. Nail biter this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll tell you what..wet snow cancel..it's 19.9/5 here right now..so figure it starts snowing and wetbulbs down to 15 or 16.. The first part of the storm is going to be powder..and will pile up quickly.. colder trends def gonna win out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 God the only thing confident at this late hour is still just whether something is going to happen or not. But all these shifts ...left, right, up down, north south... however minute means major sensible differences. what a fercockta popscycle headache. The models are like an unmanned fire hose spraying solutions all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll tell you what..wet snow cancel..it's 19.9/5 here right now..so figure it starts snowing and wetbulbs down to 15 or 16.. The first part of the storm is going to be powder..and will pile up quickly.. colder trends def gonna win out It won't be that cold where the snow is forming so it won't be powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The trend with part 2 is hard east it seems. But we'll have to see if that carries this evening. Another shift like that and even I'm in the game at the end. Harv going light...TBH that doesn't surprise me I think with the high retreating we torch quick with some of those earlier solutions. The lowest levels will warm faster than we think and at the same time it's warming aloft...but that may all be moot after the 0z run. Nail biter this time. Yea Harv is like the Euro of OCM's. Tough to go against, but even we could be in line for something like 4-6" if the Euro has another 10-20 mile tick SE later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From Alb discussion. We usually watch the meso bands from a far. Hope to witness one this time. THU NIGHT...THEIR ARE SEVERAL SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLYFROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF AN INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND FORMING. THE CSTARRESEARCH DONE WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY HAS SHOWN WITH THESEINTENSE BOMBS THAT MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS CAN FORM ON THE NW SIDE OFTHE H700/500 CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH INTENSE 2-D H850-700 FGEN.EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THAT A NW TO SE CROSS-SECTION THROUGH THECAPITAL REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z IS SHOWING TREMENDOUS UPWARD VERTICALMOTION COINCIDING WITH STEEPLY SLOPED FGEN...BENEATH AN AREA OFNEGATIVE EPV. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A PIVOTING MESOSCALE SNOWBANDBASED ON THE LATEST CSTAR RESEARCH. THE DUAL JET STRUCTURE SETS UPAT NIGHT WITH A SECOND JET STREAK MOVING NEAR NEW ENGLAND...OURAREA WILL BE WEST OF THE UPPER JET AXIS/ LEFT FRONT QUAD/. PCPN EFFICIENCY LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONEOF -10C TO -16C OVER THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL MESOSCALE SNOWBAND OR BANDS. SNOW RATES COULD REACH 3" OR SO AN HOUR...IF THISBAND FORMS. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAND SETS UP ACROSS THEREGION. THE CAPITAL REGION COULD GET INTO THIS BAND. RIGHTNOW...FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERNCATSKILLS...SOUTH AND EAST HAVE THE BEST CHC. A LOT COULDCHANGE...SINCE THIS IS 24-30 HRS OUT IN THE FCST. THE LOW DEEPENSTO ABOUT 980 HPA NEAR SE LONG ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT...AND AROUND 975HPA IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z/FRI. IT CLASSIFIES AS A SYNOPTICBOMB WITH THE 24 HPA FALL IN MSLP IN 24 HRS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 God the only thing confident at this late hour is still just whether something is going to happen or not. But all these shifts ...left, right, up down, north south... however minute means major sensible differences. what a fercockta popscycle headache. The models are like a unmanned fire hose Yeah its been brutal. Some fairly small shifts in the details can mean a lot in sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Went from -21F this morning to +25F this afternoon... quite the warm up today with a 46 degree rise. 18z GFS says we get all our snow in a 6-hour period up here with the deformation/CCB. Any further east and its a problem. Ride the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Total mind F. NWS ups their amounts for the area, tv mets drop them to practically nothing. What's the deal, trying to cover all the bases lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM appeared to bring most of west of 495 a foot plus or close to it. ORH looks golden on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OKX is pretty bullish, forecasting 10-14 around here. I can't seem to upload the graphic without getting an error, but here's the link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php I've bought lift tickets to Mount Snow for Friday. Should be epic if we can get there (driving up early Friday morning). So, you can be one of the hundreds of CT cars joining the hundreds of NY and NJ cars that trapse through Shelburne on Friday nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 God the only thing confident at this late hour is still just whether something is going to happen or not. But all these shifts ...left, right, up down, north south... however minute means major sensible differences. what a fercockta popscycle headache. The models are like an unmanned fire hose spray solutions all over the place Oy Vey! Mets going to earn their keep over the next 48 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM for the good folks who understand snow maps have variances but show trends and a publically posted WXbell graphic untuckedLordamercy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's a real tough call for bOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are people's thoughts as to why the models are so divergent with this storm? Yeah its been brutal. Some fairly small shifts in the details can mean a lot in sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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