dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro runs hotter than your server before it crashes every model run. This is getting like Easternwx now....someone send an SoS to the IT people. Euro totally breaks with consistency. Now what do forecasters do? Go with a solution supported by Crazy Uncle and JMA or go with the GFS? the server has been fine. It's some other issue...possibly software related. We have an outside guy that's going to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My hope springs eternal. I need this to play out big to boost confidence in an average snowfall. What do you see causing it to close off so early? I think that was the last thing that folks were anticipating would happen. We're a few of the only ones in the SNE forum not sweating a closer in track. Your elevation is hopefully going to help with ratios. I've been expecting 6"+ since yesterday and that hasn't changed. Anything over that is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How bad is the qpf reduction? Yes, I'm asking. It looks to go right over the Cape?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thats definitely over done with 500mb closing off so early...but that is 6 runs in a row of track consistency. I'm starting to get excited for atleast something up here in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ALB-PF-CAR jack? Congrats Noyes? That would be the first time this winter anyone has uttered *any* of those words...in either question, lol. I guess I'm not grasping the southern stream stuff...what is different in this one that it's not progressive like previous systems? Very weak northern stream kicker, flow slows down just enough, or the energy is just that strong coming out of the south? This whole negative tilt trough is new for a system this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sounds like CCB just croaks us with snow as it moves across and lingers Not verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 actually ends up looking like a pretty intense core-wrapped cyclone with heavy snow and N wind at 72 hours... Kind of like it starts as snow ... goes to mixed crap for 4 hours at varying intensity, then gets solidified heavy as snow for 5 hours, and it's done. fun storm for changeability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not verbatim. Based on what Earhlight posted..why wouldn't that translate from NYC right thru SNE to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That would be the first time this winter anyone has uttered *any* of those words...in either question, lol. I guess I'm not grasping the southern stream stuff...what is different in this one that it's not progressive like previous systems? Very weak northern stream kicker, flow slows down just enough, or the energy is just that strong coming out of the south? This whole negative tilt trough is new for a system this season. This is a classic Miller A. We haven't had one this season yet. Euro tends to do very well with these ala 10/29/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like the euro verbatim. Nice thump of snow longer for mby before it opens up and floods the mid level with mildness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Based on what Earhlight posted..why wouldn't that translate from NYC right thru SNE to the coast? It's not a blizz for them. The CCB is more upstate NY and Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is a classic Miller A. We haven't had one this season yet. Euro tends to do very well with these ala 10/29/11 Except that Miller A's tend to screw western and northern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That would be the first time this winter anyone has uttered *any* of those words...in either question, lol. I guess I'm not grasping the southern stream stuff...what is different in this one that it's not progressive like previous systems? Very weak northern stream kicker, flow slows down just enough, or the energy is just that strong coming out of the south? This whole negative tilt trough is new for a system this season. you're only remembering the storms that trended south. The Cape has had a few systems that kept coming NW inside 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 you're only remembering the storms that trended south. The Cape has had a few systems that kept coming NW inside 48hrs. You are likely right in my messed up view of this winter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not verbatim. Yeah we get some CCB type snow sas the UUL deepens almost over us or just east, but its not "croaked"...probably 2-3" or something for that stuff. The way the Euro handled the southern stream seems to be stemmed from how slow it was ejecting it east...way slower than other guidance it appears just glancing at it again now. Ugghh...Euro loves to screw around with these origins sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 72 would be something else in eastern areas I think. I fired up the 7 day free trial on wxball. 10mb drop between cape and gom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's going to be a long day waiting for tonights euro, thats for damn sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure what to think. Euro definitely makes me nervous regarding taint here now. Hopefully it was just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is an absolute crusher for 95% of NNE. Huge for the mountain resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully euro is having probs ejecting it east. I thought i recalled someone saying this wasnt a situ where its sw (holding energy back) was a issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure what to think. Euro definitely makese nervous regarding taint here now. Hopefully it was just a hiccup.lol. You're fine. There will be plenty of snow even if the banding rots over the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Best to keep expectations in check and enjoy tracking this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Everyone besides far nw ct and the berks taints it would seem at hour 66. hour 72 everyone rapidly drops back off as we get stung and storm departs in GOM while it bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Box accum maps probs show how longitude is > than latitide wrt snow in their minds. Kev has better snow probs for 6,8, 12 inches then locals just west of 495 (like dracut) on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Best to keep expectations in check and enjoy tracking this system. W quasi high bridging in as main high retreats west i had more hope w this system than a day ago but the euro is really givin forecasters headaches in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah we get some CCB type snow sas the UUL deepens almost over us or just east, but its not "croaked"...probably 2-3" or something for that stuff. The way the Euro handled the southern stream seems to be stemmed from how slow it was ejecting it east...way slower than other guidance it appears just glancing at it again now. Ugghh...Euro loves to screw around with these origins sometimes. It was slower compared to 00z too. I always fear this with srn stream systems. This is when we wish we had a nice high to help out with frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hr 60 is a very good front end thump before the torch mostly for everyone. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It was slower compared to 00z too. I always fear this with srn stream systems. This is when we wish we had a nice high to help out with frontogenesis. Scooter Ageo Flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys from HFD-ORH and GAY will get a nice front ender even verbatim. Like Will...I'm a little skepticle of that solution in terms of the 500mb evolution, but for BOS and points SE...it likely doesn't matter much unless this tracks closer to ACK. Hopefully this shuts up the VT crowd. No offense guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Could the Euro bias of holding back shortwaves out west be at play here? Sounds like the NAM/GFS are on their own at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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