dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Double headed Ddo low on the Nam, darn fun I would say Dbbl whammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 total totals over eastern portions is off the charts 45-48 hrs. Probably thunder and rain over to thunder snow for some on the east. unstable. For those who don't know http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/302/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are some of you looking at? The 18z NAM absolutely crushes E MA on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM warms us by opening up the low and passes it through as a strung out mess before deepening in the GOM rapidly creating it's (likely) faux backlash for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are some of you looking at? The 18z NAM absolutely crushes E MA on the front end. I wonder sometimes. That's an awesome look on the front end. Omega bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are some of you looking at? The 18z NAM absolutely crushes E MA on the front end. Was just going to say... 0.5+ before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are some of you looking at? The 18z NAM absolutely crushes E MA on the front end. I guess the graphics I was looking at were misleading. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Until BOX changes their snow map I am not really worried. They have been pretty on this year and I ultimately roll with their forecasts. They have certainly been right far more than wrong this year for W MA. I'm not sure where people are coming up with 2-3" for Springfield area. I guess anything is possible but I'm skeptical about screw job of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam has been good with this system. And thats a big dump in your yards at the front end. Embrace the dump then the drizzle in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wonder sometimes. That's an awesome look on the front end. Omega bomb. Yeah that is incredible omega...prob 2" per hour for several hours if that verified. Probably overdone, but by the way some people were posting, it sounded as if this run was like 1-3" and then a washout for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, weenie maps for NAM are 1-2' feet for Kevin. Weenie maps are pretty bad to go by though. This includes the backlash many discount FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Its a crush job here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, weenie maps for NAM are 1-2' feet for Kevin. Weenie maps are pretty bad to go by though. This includes the backlash many discount FYI. Is there anyone else on that map besides him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here are the 24h and 27h panels from the 18z NAM. Crudely using the 850 0c line as changeover, you can see how much precip has fallen up to that point before it move thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are some of you looking at? The 18z NAM absolutely crushes E MA on the front end. I can no longer read this thread and determine what to expect. Can someone (preferably a Met) try to summarize expectations based off the latest guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are some of you looking at? The 18z NAM absolutely crushes E MA on the front end. Cut off a third of the 1", and its about 7" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings have been issued by the NWS for most of the state from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for New London and Southern Middlesex Counties. A low pressure system located along the Gulf coast today is forecast to move to the North Carolina Coast by Thursday morning and then slowly move up the East Coast Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Night departing to the Northeast Friday morning. On this track our area can expect a period of moderate to heavy snow Thursday morning, changing to a light to moderate mix Thursday afternoon and potentially back to moderate snow late Thursday Night. Here's the latest forecast. Tonight...Increasing clouds with light snow developing between 2:00 - 4:00 AM. Lows in the upper teens to mid 20's. Thursday...Snow, increasing in intensity during the morning rush hour with 1" - 2" of snow on roadways by 7:00 AM and 1" - 2" inches of additional snow during the morning rush hour. The snow is forecast to become heavy at times by 9:00 AM and continue thru the midday and into early Thursday afternoon. A rain/snow line is forecast to move from the Southeast Coast at 11:00 AM into the Hartford area by 3:00 PM and into the NW Hills by 5:00 PM. The precipitation intensity is forecast to drop back down to light to moderate by the start of the afternoon rush hour with a mix of rain, some freezing rain and sleet across most of the state during the afternoon rush hour. Temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 20's in Northern CT to the low 30's along the coast during the day. Northeast winds are forecast to gradually increase during the day reaching 20 - 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH by the afternoon rush hour. Currently the impact on the morning rush hour is expected to be minor across Northern CT and moderate in Southern CT with a light to moderate snow cover on most roads. The impact on the afternoon rush hour is expected to be minor along the coast with slush on roads, moderate across most of the rest of the state, with a moderate snow cover to locally major in Northern CT near the MA border where some roads may be very slick and snow covered. The NE winds combined with the wet snow may result in a minor number of power outages. Thursday Night...Mixed precipitation changing back to snow in Western CT around midnight and across the rest of the state by 4:00 AM. There will likely be another period of moderate to occassionally heavy snow across Western and Northern CT between midnight and 5:00 AM with several more inches of accumulation especially North and West of I-84. The snow is forecast to end completely by 6:00 AM on Friday. The impact on the Friday morning rush hour is forecast to be moderate with snow cover on most roads and some patches of black ice. Total accumulations are expected to range from 5" - 8" along the coast, 8" - 12" across most of the state and up to 14" in the NW Hills. The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection, Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will issue another update on this storm at 5:30 PM this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think a place like S VT over towards Keene into N ORH county could see extensive snow totals.. fixt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, weenie maps for NAM are 1-2' feet for Kevin. Weenie maps are pretty bad to go by though. This includes the backlash many discount FYI.What's the snow totals for Southie in those? That's gotta be at least 2" on the backlash....at least for you...maybe more forme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Congrats Milinocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What's the snow totals for Southie in those? That's gotta be at least 2" on the backlash....at least for you...maybe more forme. Almost everyone taken verbatim would see several inches. I can't see the new england totals yet, only conus. Images are still coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Its a crush job here Pretty sweet deformation band there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For the CT River Peeps, NAM shows 6-10" Front end thump, then over to drizzle and slop, then 3-5" more snow from backlash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Until BOX changes their snow map I am not really worried. They have been pretty on this year and I ultimately roll with their forecasts. They have certainly been right far more than wrong this year for W MA. I'm not sure where people are coming up with 2-3" for Springfield area. I guess anything is possible but I'm skeptical about screw job of that magnitude. Ryan said that QPF was relatively light this way and heavier in eastern areas. He also said that there was no front thump here so several people jumped ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM still not buying it up here. BTV forecasting 10-16" here in the warming statement, with some models like the NAM still under 0.5" QPF. High stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are some of you looking at? The 18z NAM absolutely crushes E MA on the front end. Part of it is I'm used to using the premium models from this site which aren't working around peak times now....so i'm using the other tools that look like they were drawn on an Atari. Hopefully by winter 2015 we'll have the issues resolved so all aspects of the premium site are usable. That said it's a nice front end hit, it DID get warmer to the SW but didn't really hurt anyone up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ryan said that QPF was relatively light this way and heavier in eastern areas. He also said that there was no front thump here so several people jumped ship. For which run? I was talking about the Euro. The key was "relatively" light QPF in CT on front thump compared to eastern Mass which really goes to town. No real backlash here... Euro had it very far NW like over ALB/VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NMM guidance finally coming around...this model was missing NVT every run until this past run. Now croaks us up here with that "backlash" as some have been talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For which run? I was talking about the Euro. The key was "relatively" light QPF in CT on front thump compared to eastern Mass which really goes to town. No real backlash here... Euro had it very far NW like over ALB/VT. You should respond to the posters that read your earlier post and were talking about 2-3" amount in the Hartford/Springfield area. I was only responding to as why they were saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow WDHD puts me in the 8-15 band. Discounting the 18z NAM,and considering a 2-4" backlash,and the international models shifting east,this may not be too far off. Any Mets think this is too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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