Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Maybe 3-5, 5-9, 9-14? The Euro is not particularly impressive in CT. Seems like we miss out on the good stuff during the day tomorrow and then again tomorrow night. Dont you think it's a little dangerous to make your forecast off of 1 model? Usually you always preach to use all guidance and not put all eggs in one basket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 so now not much of a thump at all back here and no ccb? Toss it. Give me the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 2 things... 1 no Euro snow maps are allowed. 2nd... those snow maps also count ZR and PL as snow. They're basically worthless. since when, Ian posts them all the time, new Ryan rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 2 things... 1 no Euro snow maps are allowed. 2nd... those snow maps also count ZR and PL as snow. They're basically worthless. Agree. Wxbell and wunderground only work with a pure snow event. But weenies love them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Public Service Announcement: Please get all your communicating done in the next 25 minutes as the site will be erratic again from 250pm until 310. Interesting comments from HPC on which way they thought the models would break down the stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD221 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014VALID FEB 12/1200 UTC THRU FEB 16/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...==============================================12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES==============================================NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TOSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.==============================================...FIVE SYSTEMS PRESENTED CHRONOLOGICALLY FROM EAST TO WEST......EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GEFS MEANCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALENOW AS WE SEE THE ONSET OF THE HIGH IMPACT ICE AND SNOW IN THESOUTH...AND THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AREMOVING INTO THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WE ARE ABLE TO RECOMMEND A SIMPLEBLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND GEFS MEANHAVE PERFORMED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN. AFTER CATCHINGONTO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS SETTLED IN...SYNCINGWITH THE GEFS MEAN...WHEREAS SOME EARLIER RUNS HAD BEEN SLIGHTLYFAST AND WEAK. THE WPC QPF AND WINTER WEATHER FORECASTERSCAUTION...HOWEVER...THAT THE GFS PRECIPITATION OUTPUT LOOKS TOOLIGHT. THEIR DAY 1 FORECASTS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE WEIGHTEDTOWARD THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET.THE 12Z ECMWF DISPLAYS VERY MUCH THE SAME STRENGTH AND TRACK ASITS PREVIOUS RUN...BUT IT TRENDED SLOWER. THIS TREND BECOMES MOREAPPARENT ON DAY 2 WHEN THE SYSTEM GETS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ISNOT A CORRESPONDING DEEPER OR MORE SHARPLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION INTHE ECMWF. THE OTHER SEMI-TRUSTED SOURCES FOR THIS STORM...UKMETAND GEFS MEAN...DID NOT TREND SLOWER. SO WE PREFER NOT TO PUT TOOMUCH WEIGHT ON THE TREND IN THE ECMWF...BUT WILL INCLUDE THATMODEL IN OUR PREFERENCE AS IT STILL DESCRIBES THE CHARACTER OF THEEXPECTED STORM. THE UKMET NOW APPEARS SLIGHTLY FAST RELATIVE TOTHE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN...SO WE REMOVE THE UKMET FROM OURPREFERENCE...BUT IT TOO MAY STILL HAVE UTILITY.THE 12Z NAM IS SLOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM BOTH AT THE SURFACE ANDALOFT. THIS LIMITS THE POTENTIAL UTILITY OF THE NAM...BUT IT DOESAPPEAR TO CATCH UP ON DAY 2 WHEN THE SYSTEM REACHES NEW ENGLAND.AT THAT TIME THE NAM DISPLAYS ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF HAVING THERMALFIELDS COLDER THAN CONSENSUS...BUT THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OFTHE STORM MATCHES CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jay, that disco is out of date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 since when, Ian posts them all the time, new Ryan rule? Since it violated the terms of service on the weatherbell site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dont you think it's a little dangerous to make your forecast off of 1 model? Usually you always preach to use all guidance and not put all eggs in one basket What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 so if the euro is right could be an inch or two of snow....light mix and then a dusting to end it? hfd to spfd corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 so if the euro is right could be an inch or two of snow....light mix and then a dusting to end it? hfd to spfd corridor? What? No. More than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here folks....newly pinned storm banter thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42845-feb-13-14-storm-banter-thread/ Post in there for those that love to let their emotions spill out onto the keyboard in rapid succession of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are you talking about?On your video. You said you're using the Euro only on the backlash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On your video. You said you're using the Euro only on the backlash He meant that it makes more sense as far as its depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro really like eastern Mass and the NH Seacoast for tomorrow's thump. Relatively little QPF over CT/W Mass with eastern areas cashing in. I don't have the ECMWF numbers but the GFS numbers look almost identical for BOS and BDL before 18z tomorrow: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kbos http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kbdl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What? No. More than that... That's what the Junior Met from NBC 30 seems to be saying. OTOH ABC 40 is sticking with 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Agree. Wxbell and wunderground only work with a pure snow event. But weenies love them. or a 90% pure snow event in some areas. Beautiful front ender, models have varied in intensity placement and total QPF but overall sense is it lays a 6-10 carpet and then things shut off for a while before they crank up. Tremendous height falls, rapidly deepening LP, you know the drill. models are guidance rarely do they nail events of this magnitude in finite detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z Euro today will tell the tale..It doesn't really matter what any of the other models do..If that comes west we know the drill..if it ticks east again like 00z then good news for all Dont you think it's a little dangerous to make your forecast off of 1 model? Usually you always preach to use all guidance and not put all eggs in one basket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro really like eastern Mass and the NH Seacoast for tomorrow's thump. Relatively little QPF over CT/W Mass with eastern areas cashing in. Are we talking reducing original accumulation estimates by half? Albany and Berks too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's what the Junior Met from NBC 30 seems to be saying. OTOH ABC 40 is sticking with 8-12. No, in the video Ryan actually says 7 or 8 in Hartford most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here folks....newly pinned storm banter thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42845-feb-13-14-storm-banter-thread/ Post in there for those that love to let their emotions spill out onto the keyboard in rapid succession of posts. I could have hit the lottery, just dismounted from a supermodel and be getting 3 feet of snow Thursday and I couldn't rapid post anything. This has been going on for weeks and it only gets worse with each storm. If the site needs more money let's do it but it's less reliable as of late than the place that came before it and it's getting ridiculous. /rant off but the primary purpose for many of us is to be able to discuss big events and lately that's becoming damn near impossible. NAM appears to be a little slower with the digging energy - little flatter out in front this run through 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Btv wrf is borderline r/s for boston for decent part of thump fwiw Also it trended tad slower...bos qpf thump 10am 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM just slowing down a bit coming into "consensus" at it's old begrudging pace. SREFs should be useful in another 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Amazing to take a look down south and see the processes at play. Nothing like the '93 squall line/severe outbreak, but this is probably in the same league. Convection so far seems a bit deeper than anticipated close to the sfc low... think that has any influence on the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No, in the video Ryan actually says 7 or 8 in Hartford most likely Well if that's true then based on his posts here eastern areas must be looking at 12-14" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Julian, wow how familiar is that, number 1 Analog today on CIPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Amazing to take a look down south and see the processes at play. Nothing like the '93 squall line/severe outbreak, but this is probably in the same league. Convection so far seems a bit deeper than anticipated close to the sfc low... think that has any influence on the track? FLradfeb12.gif That's a fantastic loop.... NAM is quite a bit warmer to our SW through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BTV WRF shows significant backend snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18z marginally warmer particularly CT and around NYC at 8h, wetter, low is further S and SE this run vs the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I could have hit the lottery, just dismounted from a supermodel and be getting 3 feet of snow Thursday and I couldn't rapid post anything. This has been going on for weeks and it only gets worse with each storm. If the site needs more money let's do it but it's less reliable as of late than the place that came before it and it's getting ridiculous. /rant off but the primary purpose for many of us is to be able to discuss big events and lately that's becoming damn near impossible. NAM appears to be a little slower with the digging energy - little flatter out in front this run through 12. I have had no problem posting via the mobile site on a cellular network over the past few days. In fact, it would probably help out if myself and a bunch of others had more problems posting to limit the number of times we can post the same thing with different words, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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