Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ensembles still useful? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro qpf and snow maps are pretty funny with the Ct river valley from the Canadian border to the Ct coast in a mini screw zone ala 92, an upslope on East winds area is going to get smoked, take Qpf with a grain of salt, speaking of salt, tremendous inflow of our salty neighbor providing nuclei for snow growth. IMHO this is better than depicted for areas and beware the backside( not yours Marky Mark) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You would think your multimillion dollar operation would foot the bill for Wxbell, surprised they don"t really. Never really asked or thought about it. I mean, as long as the NAM is free, what other model data would we really need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I gotta sack up and pay for some ECM data... I hate going by the PBP posts though everyone's been great with that. I've been trying to think what role terrain may play up here... though NE winds are usually fairly good for limiting downsloping in a lot of areas of NE VT. What the CPV and BTV area has going for it is Champlain Valley convergence towards the end. Watch that with deform and north winds funneling into the Valley between the Dacks and Greens. BTV can rack up some pretty solid totals with low water in those situations. Here's what I'm thinking: First half of the storm has an ENE component as storm passes east and intensifies. As it does so, ageostrophic flow takes over, backing the flow NNE across the region. First half of the storm BTV-RUT will downslope like a mofo. Second half they make up for it. I think a general 6-10" across NVT with highest amounts on eastern facing slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Question---If anybody had the ability to actually lock in on any one model solution that would happen verbatim for their locale---would they? This is going to be a fun now cast storm, and I'll take that anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm a QPF queen. I have a hard time believing we would do better than anyone along the east slope of the Whites and into the ME foothills. I just don't see how this area beats your area to Lewiston...although you spelled out your concerns. I've never been a fan of expecting big ratios to ramp up accumulations...though deform bands are known for that. I just hate relying on that in a forecast, but haven't really looked at snow growth too much yet.When you have good omega from H5-H7 in the deformation banding you're pretty much guaranteed high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro qpf and snow maps are pretty funny with the Ct river valley from the Canadian border to the Ct coast in a mini screw zone ala 92, an upslope on East winds area is going to get smoked, take Qpf with a grain of salt, speaking of salt, tremendous inflow of our salty neighbor providing nuclei for snow growth. IMHO this is better than depicted for areas and beware the backside( not yours Marky Mark) Yeah this should have some sort of orographic signal to it... the Maine foothills are just going to get slaughtered. Up this way, I'm starting to rely on climo and know that although some models will try to downslope all of VT off the Whites, what ends up happening is a more tighter downslope into the CT River Valley, but then upslope enhancement again on the Spine in the middle of VT. Usually the model grids aren't small enough to realize those little nuances as the Spine (while big terrain) really only takes up a chunk of real estate that's maybe 5-10 miles wide, and the global models aren't going to resolve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more bump east tonight and it puts all of us into the CCB instead of ALb right now.So instead of an additional 2-5 we'd get 6-10 more..again assuming it bumps east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more bump east tonight and it puts all of us into the CCB instead of ALb right now.So instead of an additional 2-5 we'd get 6-10 more..again assuming it bumps east again lol. Been out all morning, and read through some of the posts after the Euro came out, but this is the first thing I see when I get to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more bump east tonight and it puts all of us into the CCB instead of ALb right now.So instead of an additional 2-5 we'd get 6-10 more..again assuming it bumps east againGood luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 PF will never accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more bump east tonight and it puts all of us into the CCB instead of ALb right now.So instead of an additional 2-5 we'd get 6-10 more..again assuming it bumps east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good things come out of this, very good things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm probably going down in flames with Mahk too.. I like this system for overperforming in CNH I will be highly disappointed with anything less than a foot. This has foot plus written all over it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How does the SW ME coast look? Still mix/changeover issues near PWM? Its close, May end up on the immediate coast only on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not wanting to wander in the NYC thread.....any thought on what the Big Apple may get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro close to keeping Hartford, ORH, Even close to Lawrence/Lowell all snow... -1 is warmest @ LWM it appears. (850) With the upper levels so wrapped up, this is a setup where it's hard to imagine that 850mb is the warmest level. And I suspect all of SNE has the threat of some taint. NW MA obviously has the least likelihood, but still not impossible. I think the mixing line basically follows the mid-level dry slot here. Then the column crashes hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I will be highly disappointed with anything less than a foot. This has foot plus written all over it... You will be driving pretty far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here's what I'm thinking: First half of the storm has an ENE component as storm passes east and intensifies. As it does so, ageostrophic flow takes over, backing the flow NNE across the region. First half of the storm BTV-RUT will downslope like a mofo. Second half they make up for it. I think a general 6-10" across NVT with highest amounts on eastern facing slopes. Yeah, good points on the downslope and upslope. Fully agree with you on the RUT-BTV comments. The back end of this system has a pretty good blocked flow developing on the 4km BTV WRF, which would favor high ratio snow in the western slope communities and into the BTV area. Aloft the winds in the deform zone are NEly, but at the surface its NWly in the Champlain Valley under the ridgeline inversion... you can pretty much picture it with NE winds at 3,000ft and higher, but NW under that pushing moisture into the mountains on the VT side of the CPV. That low level air rises as it hits the mountains and is forced up into the NE flow aloft, and then the NE winds aloft push that snow back west into the CPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 weird - the map out of Gray has 10-14" riding the coast up until at least Penobscot, but this one looks like it wants to step down the snow anywhere near water. CAR's map has the taint going farther inland, but even on the GYX map it looks like only 4-6" for ROK. I can see where there is going to be some real disappointment for some on here if backlash snows don't come to fruition No disappointment here because of low/no expectations (and the front end looks great, anyway.) Haven't seen a significant backlash snowfall since moving down from Ft. Kent (in 1985.) In fact, except for 4/23/86 in NNJ, that's the only place I've seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 PF will never accept it. Haha nope. But not many on here actively accept and start thumping jackpot for themselves. Its sort of like board etiquette to not spike the football. Post positives for other areas and stay conservative in your area... unless you are Blizz or something You even said it in a post a little while ago, when posting something about eastern areas you had to caveat it with "this is not a weenie IMBY post...but..." I'm not one to sit here and post "I'm going to get slammed, and wow, that looks like a toaster bath for the south coast, etc" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Kev, let go of the CBB notion, will you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Kev, let go of the CBB notion, will you.... Some just can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Powder freak always goes low to a fault. Trauma of having one forecast bust high But (pfreak)knows his stuff very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Kev, let go of the CBB notion, will you.... No..because it's a legit chance.. so again no i won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You will be driving pretty far.. I think 12" is a lock for SNH...just a question if we can squeeze out a few more inches towards the end. What is your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No..because it's a legit chance.. so again no i won't Best regards, LC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey if we raise the funding to 15k can we get a server that works during storms? shocked by the euro, verbatim it smokes interior SE MA. Most of what falls is heavy wet snow through mid/late afternoon Thursday west of the canal and just off the beach. Then again 3 runs ago it gave DC a storm for the ages.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Powder freak always goes low to a fault. Trauma of having one forecast bust high But (pfreak)knows his stuff very well. Agree. His main flaw is he's too cheap to pony up for better model data. Actually most available free now but may not be as timely in some cases. I had kind of figured slop only for me...a few inches but things look different now. If I were forecasting I'd call 4-8 for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 OH I'd say this is more than a mere tick colder... I'm looking at this chart below and thinking someone ...circa BED to ORH is getting a blizzard condition, at least for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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