N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just out of work...catchin up. At first glance it would seem box will up amounts 495 to Bos "area" given 12z guidance . (They had 128 belt at 2-4". This is looking more now that BL will be cold enough for coast tommorrow mid day for near warning accums ,mets ? Just trying to get latest thinking, busy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That would be a little bit of a downer forecast, considering. Agreed--I've tempered my expectations accordingly. 9-12 for my hood. Conditions in Bartlett should still be decent with similar amounts. I'm guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The one thing to watch perhaps is the front end maybe almost favoring ern areas. This isn't an IMBY post, but some models have been hunting at that. Anyways backlash is more ern NY Kevin. Yes it does...the strongest ML frontogensis on the front end is in eastern areas. the LLJ really tries to crank up into RI/E MA. This front-end looks better than the SWFE event from what I can see, for snow totals down this way. That's crazy on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah that was definitely a little bit colder...looked like an ACK track. Keeps W of 495 pretty much all snow...and it still gets the VT chairlist noose-tiers with good backlash so pretty good run for a large chunk of New England. That's all we could hope for. Look good enough to get us over the 3 or 4" advisory threshold up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 U20s or so my guess. Might even be mid 20s for a while Yep, go colder than model guidance on the front end thump...esp in interior. This airmass is not going away easily. We have like -8F dewpoints over the interior right now. I wouldn't even be surprised if it was like 20-22F or a while during the first part of the storm over th einterior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, go colder than model guidance on the front end thump...esp in interior. This airmass is not going away easily. We have like -8F dewpoints over the interior right now. I wouldn't even be surprised if it was like 20-22F or a while during the first part of the storm over th einterior. Yeah it was -21F here this morning for an ambient temp... that's not some BS cold airmass, that's the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's all we could hope for. Look good enough to get us over the 3 or 4" advisory threshold up this way? You are going to get at least 8"...prob double digits...lol..I wouldn't sweat it. That back end deform stuff would prob have 20 to 1 ratios with it to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, go colder than model guidance on the front end thump...esp in interior. This airmass is not going away easily. We have like -8F dewpoints over the interior right now. I wouldn't even be surprised if it was like 20-22F or a while during the first part of the storm over th einterior. Losing valuable qpf on the weakside of the front-end to virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, go colder than model guidance on the front end thump...esp in interior. This airmass is not going away easily. We have like -8F dewpoints over the interior right now. I wouldn't even be surprised if it was like 20-22F or a while during the first part of the storm over th einterior. 12-15:1 ratios at an inch an hour = 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's all we could hope for. Look good enough to get us over the 3 or 4" advisory threshold up this way? Dude the Euro has a sick deform signal over N VT...could be a tight W-E gradient however from BTV eastward to 1V4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know nne winds can be bad for us. front end goodies will be east of us though? wow that would suck. we get no deform or stinger? is this euro or other models as well? this must be why gyx map yesterday had merrimack 8-10 but just ese of us was 10-14.I think we'll get some of both. I just think the best front end amounts will be east of us and the best deform banding west. I'm a little afraid of our region ending up in no-man's land between the areas of best lift. Deform to the left of me, front end thump to the right, here I am stuck in the screwzone with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 8-12", 1.0" qpf your not squeezing more out of that How does the SW ME coast look? Still mix/changeover issues near PWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12-15:1 ratios at an inch an hour = 8+take a look at your temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes it does...the strongest ML frontogensis on the front end is in eastern areas. the LLJ really tries to crank up into RI/E MA. I'm a little bit puzzled at 5h. The kicked energy actually seems more well conjoined with the system but it results in a track further east. All the midlevels look way better track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, go colder than model guidance on the front end thump...esp in interior. This airmass is not going away easily. We have like -8F dewpoints over the interior right now. I wouldn't even be surprised if it was like 20-22F or a while during the first part of the storm over th einterior. Absolutely, and models to me are still way too warm even at night past 495. Even Ray probably is below 32 if that euro track happened. Maybe it briefly gets to it or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think we'll get some of both. I just think the best front end amounts will be east of us and the best deform banding west. I'm a little afraid of our region ending up in no-man's land between the areas of best lift. Deform to the left of me, front end thump to the right, here I am stuck in the screwzone with you. Excellent summary, makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any ideas on timing for the first flakes? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12-15:1 ratios at an inch an hour = 8+ An inch/hour is the same at 8:1 as it is at 25:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 stay the course NCt residents 6-12 basically what you got last storm you get this storm, similar distribution CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD COUNTY...EAST FARMINGTON HEIG 12.0 600 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERNEWINGTON 11.0 304 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERWEATOGUE 11.0 1122 AM 2/05 HAM RADIOBURLINGTON 10.5 314 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER1 WNW WINDSOR LOCKS 10.2 1159 PM 2/05 BRADLEY AIRPORTNORTH GRANBY 10.0 742 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERCOLLINSVILLE 10.0 1021 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERAVON 10.0 1029 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERCANTON 10.0 633 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERWINDSOR 9.8 909 PM 2/05 HAM RADIOSUFFIELD 9.5 1120 AM 2/05 HAM RADIOWETHERSFIELD 9.5 442 PM 2/05 HAM RADIOWEST HARTFORD 9.5 107 PM 2/05 HAM RADIOGLASTONBURY 9.1 1045 AM 2/05 PUBLICMANCHESTER 9.0 1009 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERGRANBY 9.0 1139 AM 2/05 HAM RADIOBRISTOL 8.0 1200 PM 2/05 SPOTTER...TOLLAND COUNTY...SOMERS 10.7 714 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERTOLLAND 10.4 651 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERSTORRS 10.0 1050 AM 2/05 SPOTTERSTAFFORDVILLE 9.8 449 AM 2/06 NONECOVENTRY 9.0 531 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTERCOLUMBIA 7.2 818 PM 2/05 HAM RADIO...WINDHAM COUNTY...THOMPSON 10.3 825 PM 2/05 HAM RADIOPOMFRET CENTER 10.3 632 AM 2/06 NONEASHFORD 8.2 822 PM 2/05 HAM RADIOBROOKLYN 8.0 1205 PM 2/05 HAM RADIOHAMPTON 8.0 235 PM 2/05 COOP OBSERVEREAST KILLINGLY 6.3 1035 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You are going to get at least 8"...prob double digits...lol..I wouldn't sweat it. That back end deform stuff would prob have 20 to 1 ratios with it to boot. Oh lol... haha I've been thinking 10:1 with around 0.5" QPF. Then setting expectations an inch or so below that. The SREF spreads are pretty interesting... some of the ARW members have well over an inch back this way, while the NMM members have some like 3-4" QPF bombs in the HFD-ORH stretch with just destructive backlash. Its interesting to see how so many models are showing like 3-hourly QPF in the 0.5-0.75" range on the backside for someone. Its different on all models, but some of these are just absolutely going apesh*t in 3-hour segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh lol... haha I've been thinking 10:1 with around 0.5" QPF. Then setting expectations an inch or so below that. The SREF spreads are pretty interesting... some of the ARW members have well over an inch back this way, while the NMM members have some like 3-4" QPF bombs in the HFD-ORH stretch with just destructive backlash. Its interesting to see how so many models are showing like 3-hourly QPF in the 0.5-0.75" range on the backside for someone. Its different on all models, but some of these are just absolutely going apesh*t in 3-hour segments. Enjoy the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any ideas on timing for the first flakes? Thanks! dawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dude the Euro has a sick deform signal over N VT...could be a tight W-E gradient however from BTV eastward to 1V4 I gotta sack up and pay for some ECM data... I hate going by the PBP posts though everyone's been great with that. I've been trying to think what role terrain may play up here... though NE winds are usually fairly good for limiting downsloping in a lot of areas of NE VT. What the CPV and BTV area has going for it is Champlain Valley convergence towards the end. Watch that with deform and north winds funneling into the Valley between the Dacks and Greens. BTV can rack up some pretty solid totals with low water in those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro QPF is screwy again, thermals and 7H is what to look for, nice deform bands, front end is impressive, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ensembles still useful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 dawn I'd anticipate a couple hours later for him and others up this way. BTW--clouds moving in from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think box expands the warnings to the coast at 4, model consensus has shifted to warning criteria even in bos proper being much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I gotta sack up and pay for some ECM data... I hate going by the PBP posts though everyone's been great with that. I've been trying to think what role terrain may play up here... though NE winds are usually fairly good for limiting downsloping in a lot of areas of NE VT. What the CPV and BTV area has going for it is Champlain Valley convergence towards the end. Watch that with deform and north winds funneling into the Valley between the Dacks and Greens. BTV can rack up some pretty solid totals with low water in those situations. You would think your multimillion dollar operation would foot the bill for Wxbell, surprised they don"t really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think we'll get some of both. I just think the best front end amounts will be east of us and the best deform banding west. I'm a little afraid of our region ending up in no-man's land between the areas of best lift. Deform to the left of me, front end thump to the right, here I am stuck in the screwzone with you. well you could have worse company.... This is the problem with storms that track in too close. That's why the Gspot can beat the Me-spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Enjoy the jackpot. I'm a QPF queen. I have a hard time believing we would do better than anyone along the east slope of the Whites and into the ME foothills. I just don't see how this area beats your area to Lewiston...although you spelled out your concerns. I've never been a fan of expecting big ratios to ramp up accumulations...though deform bands are known for that. I just hate relying on that in a forecast, but haven't really looked at snow growth too much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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