Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 3-6" on the front end in SE MA starting from the canal going up to Rt 128 and over to I-95. exciting.. I rather be in Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think that is attainable for sure. I think 6-8 is pretty likely for BOS/TOL/HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think 6-8 is pretty likely for BOS/TOL/HFD. 8-12 ORH TOL DXR 4-8 HFD BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just a fantastic writeup : A must read if you like technical stuff http://mnoy.es/1j4fE5Q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow...feeling a lot more confident for something significant up here. 10-14 looks good, maybe a lollis to 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Canadian looked way SE I guess. Seems like an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not convinced that pretty close to Boston doesn't get 7 or 8 inches out of this. Its going to be close depending on how intense that warm conveyor is....its been ramping up. TK and Noyes think so too even into Boston itself, and think maybe an inch or two on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Canadian looked way SE I guess. Seems like an outlier? Yeah...def colder. Tries to pivot through some decent backlash for central/eastern areas though not as good as the NAM. Guess we'll see what the Euro does in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What really helps is just out ahead of the warming layers there is some pretty potent lift and high QPF. Also once precipitation begins it's going to transition to moderate/heavy rather quickly and for at least a several hour period before any worries of precipitation transitions. Could be looking at widespread 1''+ hour rates for a solid 5-7 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM also whips all of us with the backlash. The totals are going to be higher than what you see in media outlets if that backlash whips thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm sorry about the IMBY post but it's so borderline that I haven't gotten the sense of what people think for this area. I'm in Smithfield (North Central RI) and am curious what you think about amounts, morning + evening commute, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 im too nervous for the euro.....i feel like im watching a scary movie with my hands over my face each time i refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The backlash scenario seems quite plausible. As the system advances up to the northeast you can actually see RH begins to vastly increase again over SNE. Not too often you really see that...normally you see drier air being dragged in but not in this case...rather interesting. EDIT VV"s also increase too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 im too nervous for the euro.....i feel like im watching a scary movie with my hands over my face each time i refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Canadian looked way SE I guess. Seems like an outlier? I must have an old run because I see a low tracking inland EDIT: I see now, near BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Canadian looked way SE I guess. Seems like an outlier? The SLP jumped NE from 18z - 00z. Definitely tossed due to lack of continuity between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This storm is getting some weird things right now. Convection sort of robbing moisture near ATL earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I can see where there is going to be some real disappointment for some on here if backlash snows don't come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just a fantastic writeup : A must read if you like technical stuff http://mnoy.es/1j4fE5Q Good write up however I see he has 9 inches for this area and I just do not see that happening....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anytime there is convection involved, Some areas benefit and others get the pipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What a hit for ME though on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I can see where there is going to be some real disappointment for some on here if backlash snows don't come to fruition If anyone is foolish enough to count on backlash snows for any substantial portion of their "take home" from this system, they simply haven't been paying much attention. The potential is nice, it looks best at the moment for E NY, N CT, W/C MA, S VT/NH, swinging NE from there if it blossoms as it well might... but it has to go just right. That said, if it does, could be fun. I think somebody gets clubbed by it but if it's not my backyard, then it simply isn't interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What a hit for ME though on the GGEM. Lack of consistency is concerning and there is a natural pull to discount the Canadian. This storm is so bizarre though have to keep all possibilities in mind as we near. Clearly far right outlier for time being. A forecasters worst fear is late trend either way leading to huge bust as models get better hang on the pieces coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Most of the snow in this is on the front end. Even if the backlash verifies for central/eastern areas, it won't match the front end totals. It would probably be something like 3-5" to end it. Maybe if it goes nuclear it could be more than that, but the chances of that are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I realize that the storm evolution is very different, but from a sensible weather perspective, it sounds like this storm could be pretty similar to last Wednesday's storm (6-8 inch front end, light mix in the middle, another 1-2 inches on the tail end). The main difference could be a bit less intense with the front end thump, maybe a bit more after the change back to snow, and longer duration overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Most of the snow in this is on the front end. Even if the backlash verifies for central/eastern areas, it won't match the front end totals. It would probably be something like 3-5" to end it. Maybe if it goes nuclear it could be more than that, but the chances of that are low. Yeah, expected 12/9/05 is like expecting the blizzard of 78 of backlashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If anyone is foolish enough to count on backlash snows for any substantial portion of their "take home" from this system, they simply haven't been paying much attention. The potential is nice, it looks best at the moment for E NY, N CT, W/C MA, S VT/NH, swinging NE from there if it blossoms as it well might... but it has to go just right. That said, if it does, could be fun. I think somebody gets clubbed by it but if it's not my backyard, then it simply isn't interesting. Yeah, I would not hang my hat on it, Any WSW wind here is a down slope dandy special, Some areas could benefit, But i would want to be in some higher elevations and NW if it was just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Most of the snow in this is on the front end. Even if the backlash verifies for central/eastern areas, it won't match the front end totals. It would probably be something like 3-5" to end it. Maybe if it goes nuclear it could be more than that, but the chances of that are low.Yeah but if we get 6-10 on the front another 3-5 on the fanny side. That's over a foot potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Haven't heard much about dry slotting, is that still a concern with amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The CIPS analog dates are funny. 3/3/1994 2/14/2007 3/13/1993 12/30/1997 2/13/1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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