N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes i saw that on the gfs yesterday more so than the nam, the gfs yesterday at 12z and 18z had that almost pushing down into vt at height of storm. Looked good to me. Today at 12z that feature is still there but not as prominent We also have some residual ridging holding to our north and/or over us as the main high retreats. At least that is what Kocin said yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's going to be a large precip shield with this. The upper level divergence spreads pretty far NW on the more amped runs which I am weighting heavier than the weaker runs (goes back to our original 75/25 Euro compromise). There's a distinct mid-level warm front that gets almost stationary for a while over SE MA during the day on Thursday...to the NW of that it is going to rip. Also, mid-level warming to the northwest of that is probably going to be a bit less than some guidance thinks. So 'I won't be surprised if some of the profiles cool a bit even if some of the amped tracks do not change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a bad look overall to the 12z GEFS members. f60.gif I also think the GGEM is out to lunch on track based on this. I saw those as well, not one GFES member has a solution like the UKMET or GGEM. Even the SREFS have some juiced and amped members (they definitely came NW at the 9z run), but the GFS members just aren't biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I saw those as well, not one GFES member has a solution like the UKMET or GGEM. Even the SREFS have some juiced and amped members (they definitely came NW at the 9z run), but the GFS members just aren't biting. The GFS suite likely has no idea what it is doing...I'd put only minor weight on them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On the gefs you can see this isn't just a pure retreating high pressure. That quasi omega block in e Canada seems like it could be helpful for some areas perhaps 495-128 . I would like a little more disco on this feature and how it can help out certain areas. I thought that "bridging high connecting just n of nne was referenced as "quasi" omega block anyway. This may be what helps N'rly flow if low depend early enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a bad look overall to the 12z GEFS members. Assuming that goldish line = snow / rain line, most of CT seems to be in the rain or sleet for much of this. ... Of course I may not know what the hell I'm talking about either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro be bugging right about now. Who's doing the PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not to keen on the fact that we are 48 hours from go-time, and the only models to not turn me over are the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS suite likely has no idea what it is doing...I'd put only minor weight on them right now. So, my current hope resides on the NAM....any trend would be a friends right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not to keen on the fact that we are 48 hours from go-time, and the only models to not turn me over are the GFS and NAM. The ensembles all seem to be SE of the ops consistently throughout this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone have any idea what the power outages could be on the East Coast from this? Has to be one of the highest we have seen because of the historic freezing rain in the south combine with wind and wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe it's just my imagination...but on ewall the GGEM almost looks like the low retrogrades slightly between hours 54 and 60. Me thinks it's still slightly over amped...but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well one big change is euro closes off a lot further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well one big change is euro closes off a lot further SW. So much for the king of consistency. That'll also lead to more warmth here I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well congrats PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yikes that's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is weaker than 00z...by like 4mb. Weaker dynamics too...so less qpf and a bit warmer. Kind of a whacko solution to be honest...it tries to close off everything pretty far SW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yikes that's warm.Even up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is a little bizzare how it just closes off well SW, but these are powerful srn stream systems that aren't totally immune to this. Still a good front ender for Ray and ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There is taint for a period of time but this is a blizzard as the CCB develops overhead 66-78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ALB-PF-CAR jack? Congrats Noyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My hope springs eternal. I need this to play out big to boost confidence in an average snowfall. What do you see causing it to close off so early? I think that was the last thing that folks were anticipating would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro getting southern stream "Close off" happy I think. I'm not buying that bizarre evolution...though you never say never in this science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Even up here?We're OK. 850 0C gets into SE NH, but I don't know what the warmest level is. Probably 925ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yikes that's warm. Euro runs hotter than your server before it crashes every model run. This is getting like Easternwx now....someone send an SoS to the IT people. Euro totally breaks with consistency. Now what do forecasters do? Go with a solution supported by Crazy Uncle and JMA or go with the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Eh, the idea of something near CC is ok, but a bowling ball at 500mb near Hatteras seems....well perhaps a little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I could almost see this thing ending up a snow downer... Just looking at this new Euro through 48 hours... that high is retreating so aggressively seaward I could almost see this thing getting usurped and needle threaded right up ALB's ass, and it turning into a joke for everyone farther east. No one thinks that will happen, but I don't see any reason why it can't just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ...Better shovel that 10 or so inches of snow off of my flat roof. Could be a joist breaker with all of that wet coming down in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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