Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From Sam super neg tilt 500mb vort max tracking south of LI = heavy banded snow N NJ - SE NY - SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice backlash for everyone..Get that ULL underneath us..and it goes to town from west to east We want it E of LI and through about the Cape to get good snows SE of the N ORH hills to Litchfield county axis...otherwise probably just like an inch at the end vs a nice 3-5" finish. I'm favoring the lesser scenario for central/eastern areas...it'll be close for ORH and maybe your area if it can come a little bit SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice backlash for everyone..Get that ULL underneath us..and it goes to town from west to east I think you really need a nudge east to get more than an inch or two there. This is a classic SE NY into NW CT and SW NH look right now. Hopefully it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We want it E of LI and through about the Cape to get good snows SE of the N ORH hills to Litchfield county axis...otherwise probably just like an inch at the end vs a nice 3-5" finish. I'm favoring the lesser scenario for central/eastern areas...it'll be close for ORH and maybe your area if it can come a little bit SE. What do you make of Lillo's post 500mb vort tracking south of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any parallels to the December 1992 storm that produced huge amounts of cement inland and rain at the coast only to provide a backlash of 6-8 additional snow at the end for everyone right to the coast. It was a cut-off low, but some of the behaviors seem familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if this comes in two phases...the warm conveyor belt front end thump which should be pretty good for many here. Then almost a lull where its drizzle/light rain (perhaps some heavier rain in far SE areas) with some icing and/or snizzle in the interior...then this ULL keeps moving out underneath us which has to argue for a pretty solid CCB to finish ti as heights crash SE. It could be a pretty interesting storm. That about sums it up... There's a lot of changeable nature to this thing, both in time, and spacial. It really will also vary pretty dramatically from say, Orange Mass to Boston. The former will be snowing moderately, while the latter (talking circa mid way through the event) has heavy wind swept cold rain. Boston looks vicious with 34F at the surface, and howling NE winds, and lashing rains ... yes, rains, not snow ... rains. It will snow to start, as you and others have aptly outlined, but if one is going to be inside of ...I'd say even 495 for this deal, the heavies part of this looks to be rain -- half to 2/3rds of QPF is liquid. 800mb temperature are as high as +5C in a lot of the guidance I've seen over Logan, and that penetrates W some distance. By the way, folks are calling that a CCB afterward (stinger or whatever...) but that almost appears to be caused more by an evolving TROWAL to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What do you make of Lillo's post 500mb vort tracking south of LI? The problem is that below 750 MB it is really warm and it wraps all the way around. Unfortunately, it takes work to wipe that away. It's not as simple as saying 500 tracks south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS tucks the low up to the tip of LI then slides it ENE it appears. A wee bit different than the NAM. Not sure I trust it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What do you make of Lillo's post 500mb vort tracking south of LI? If it tracks south of LI and out over the Cape, then I agree...if it rips up through LI and E MA, then the meat of the CCB backlash is going to be west. I do think we'll see a bit of backlash even in the latter scenario, but probably just light stuff that slowly accumulates to an inch or so versus 3-5 hours of mod/heavy snow to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well I'm definitely not going to break out the 12/9/05 analog...that one lost like 20mb in 3 hours over parts of SE MA near the Canal....this won't sniff that, but we could see a nice ending IF that 5H low can squeak out underneath block island. I'm still thinking that the best will be to the west into W MA and CNE, but we've seen a bit of a subtle trend to bring that SE a little bit. Why i said"that kind of situation' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like it but flashes to S+ in th emiddle of it. Those height falls are sick..it would be difficult to keep it non-snow for very long. I agree. Looks like 0.5" for NW CT as sleet/ZR followed by another 0.5" of S+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ukie looks a little less enthusiastic for the backlash, but looks like it has a nice front end job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's weird seeing the backlash blossom like that... it can happen but it's pretty unusual especially with a mature low already to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any parallels to the December 1992 storm that produced huge amounts of cement inland and rain at the coast only to provide a backlash of 6-8 additional snow at the end for everyone right to the coast. It was a cut-off low, but some of the behaviors seem familiar. Sensible wx will certainly be quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, it's clearly a TROWAL. Long duration multi-faceted 12z GFS solution... Starts as snow, then tries to rain, with certitude over eastern NE, but tries to penetrate that way west almost to western MA, then ... dynamics take over and everyone flashes over to snow, with an increase in intensity as all that warm transport aloft evolves into a TROWAL, which situates over top a CCB in the lower levels. For those wanting snow, could be frustrating first half of this event... especially in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Will or Scooter or Hanrahan..is there going to be significant icing with this in a narrow zone.. By sig..i mean could there potentially be a zone of .50 or more zr accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Geez that is a nice back end... Thanks....I spend a lot of time in the gym. At least for those of us in the far far interior, I think the overall message is that we are getting a lot of snow. I'm thinking 10-18 generally with lollies over 20 in lucky/favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ukie looks a little less enthusiastic for the backlash, but looks like it has a nice front end job. You can see why too...it trakcs the ULL up through SNE and not SE of us or over the Cape. That'll be interesing to track because that feature has been a bit unstable...just 100 miles could make a huge difference on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see why too...it trakcs the ULL up through SNE and not SE of us or over the Cape. That'll be interesing to track because that feature has been a bit unstable...just 100 miles could make a huge difference on that. Yeah that's not a real good track for lashing S+..definitely need that further east. I have a hard time seeing it moving that far east though, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Will or Scooter or Hanrahan..is there going to be significant icing with this in a narrow zone.. By sig..i mean could there potentially be a zone of .50 or more zr accretion? No... maybe a minor glaze but the bulk of our QPF comes all at once it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Will or Scooter or Hanrahan..is there going to be significant icing with this in a narrow zone.. By sig..i mean could there potentially be a zone of .50 or more zr accretion? I doubt that much...the heaviest precip falls in the form of snow on the front end and then we basically dryslot until any potential CCB comes through later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's weird seeing the backlash blossom like that... it can happen but it's pretty unusual especially with a mature low already to our south. You have some of the kicker s/w energy phasing into the system so that is likely what's causing the re-blossoming of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see why too...it trakcs the ULL up through SNE and not SE of us or over the Cape. That'll be interesing to track because that feature has been a bit unstable...just 100 miles could make a huge difference on that. If you look at the 700/850mb low tracks that definitely favors a NW displacement for best comma head snows. Taconics/Berkshire special I think. Models tend to be too broad with heaviest QPF placement... the actual precip field may be more narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll take that GFS--taint and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, it's clearly a TROWAL. Long duration multi-faceted 12z GFS solution... Starts as snow, then tries to rain, with certitude over eastern NE, but tries to penetrate that way west almost to western MA, then ... dynamics take over and everyone flashes over to snow, with an increase in intensity as all that warm transport aloft evolves into a TROWAL, which situates over top a CCB in the lower levels. For those wanting snow, could be frustrating first half of this event... especially in the east. Nice theta-e ridge aloft as the TROWAL matures.. probably some reduced or negative EPV in that region as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those heights fall like that kiss the 7h warmth bye bye faster than Cory's fingers railing Led Zepplin on the squeeze box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You want to be in that favorable area near and NW of the 700 and 500 low tracks. Look how the wind vectors convergerge near wrn MA and ern NY state. You also have a 700mb back bent WF feature. At the same time it's mild below 800mb. Now even if this is a bit too warm...it's not going to be off by 4C. You need this to be displaced east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 'This storm would have really been awesome if - ' That phrase seems to be the introduction to just about all atmospheric events on Earth. Save for a very select view examples of lore, there's always some way the Earth keeps these systems in check, and getting out of control. In this case, if there were just a little more polar high not retreating, but situating just NW of Maine, wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice theta-e ridge aloft as the TROWAL matures.. probably some reduced or negative EPV in that region as well. Yup, probably going to be some lightning and thunder when that blossoms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, it's clearly a TROWAL. Long duration multi-faceted 12z GFS solution... Starts as snow, then tries to rain, with certitude over eastern NE, but tries to penetrate that way west almost to western MA, then ... dynamics take over and everyone flashes over to snow, with an increase in intensity as all that warm transport aloft evolves into a TROWAL, which situates over top a CCB in the lower levels. For those wanting snow, could be frustrating first half of this event... especially in the east. Only if you expect a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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