Modfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at NAM soundings looks like perhaps a transition to ZR for at least parts of CT near 0z tomorrow...if those thermal soundings verified as so. Where does it set up Wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check my sig. But i Wasnt referring to you, first of all. And second, its people jumping off cliffs that need to chill. Its okay, we will get through this and somehow there is light at the end. Stay safe! Lot of cold air at the surface needs to be scoured for a while in a lot of the region. Any liquid that falls will be icing up pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bab5871 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I guess I'll be joining you fine folks on the discussion over here, seems no one in the Upstate NY forum has anything to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Downslope dandy We won't jack, but we will rack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My word. What a very strange person you are. Anyhow! Good morning to the rest of you, suddenly strikingly stable by comparison. My office is once again asking me to make a call regarding tomorrow's morning commute. I really wish they'd at least pay for a subscription to better model access if they're going to routinely put these kinds of decisions on me. I'm thinking we'll actually be able to get here, damage will be done during business hours and then the flip to rain/dry slot. My hangup is whether to bother indicating that backlash bomb that the GFS/NAM want to swing through tomorrow evening/night or just sort of gloss over it (The euro just didn't seem to have anything similar...). There's a chance the ugly stuff could hang on for the evening commute. That's probably the toughest forecast...esp if you work out by 128 IIRC? The snow lasts until about 4-5pm on mopst guidance...perhaps even a little later. If we're talking right in metro Boston, then maybe an hour or two sooner. The potential for CCB snows to end it I think wouldn't affect the commutes even if they panned out...more like 11pm-5am affair after everyone is home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We won't jack, but we will rack. Never do jack, But usually make out well, Except this year it seems for here anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes, yesterday it started to jell, the signal for exactly what you describe was on the board for a while, have to think 12/9/05, seriously no extraneous hype just that kind of situation, remember CC got all rain on that. that day is ingrained din my mind. Heavy front end dump to sleet, snow grains fine mist, a little rain then heavy sleet as I looked up a wall of white came down from the heavens accompanied by a huge thunderous roar of wind followed quickly by lightning cracking and thunder then 0 visibility snow. It has that kind of appeal :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If this is a two phase storm, should we expect SN+ to IP to ZR in the interior of SNE, then heights crashing and a return to SN (several inches, a dusting?). When I look at Weather Underground and Accuweather they seem to be going back and forth on initial snow amounts tomorrow and tomorrow night. Is this because they are picking a favorite model, or are the models still changing significantly? I'm a bit lost with the back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If this is a two phase storm, should we expect SN+ to IP to ZR in the interior of SNE, then heights crashing and a return to SN (several inches, a dusting?). When I look at Weather Underground and Accuweather they seem to be going back and forth on initial snow amounts tomorrow and tomorrow night. Is this because they are picking a favorite model, or are the models still changing significantly? I'm a bit lost with the back and forth. It will def flip tomorrow afternoon/evening...for ORH I expect heavy snow over to sleet and then eventually freezing rain for a time, but the heaviest precip will be in the form of snow. It will change back to snow sometime after midnight but the additional amounts are very dependent on whether the upper low track is more underneath block island and over Cape Cod versus up through LI and E MA...if it is underneath Block Island, then we'd get probably 3-6 additional inches...otherwise, probably just a dusting to an inch to top it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS finally getting a clue about the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Never do jack, But usually make out well, Except this year it seems for here anyways The snow map from GYX this morning will have some major changes, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS finally getting a clue about the front end. Going nuts with the stinger... but that's not snow in W CT. Ripping pingers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's a chance the ugly stuff could hang on for the evening commute. That's probably the toughest forecast...esp if you work out by 128 IIRC? The snow lasts until about 4-5pm on mopst guidance...perhaps even a little later. If we're talking right in metro Boston, then maybe an hour or two sooner. The potential for CCB snows to end it I think wouldn't affect the commutes even if they panned out...more like 11pm-5am affair after everyone is home. Yes, my office is in Waltham, just inside of 95, just north of the pike. I think getting to the office will be fine... we're 8:30 to 5:30, generally speaking.... so even the end of workday timing should be in the rain zone (the question is what are roads like by that time). I'll likely advocate that those who CAN work from home be advised they may opt to do so tomorrow, with the caveat that it won't be necessary to close the office. My commute should be fine -- Brookline to Waltham and back -- but the majority of our employees are N & W of the office. Here's hoping I can just give the weather part and be allowed to abstain from the business decision part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is pretty mild tomorrow night. Redevelops +RA actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Definitely has the backlash, but looks more wrn MA up through NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Big thumper on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS finally getting a clue about the front end. Yup. Nice burst of omega at the beginning there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Geez that is a nice back end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That back end crushes Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going nuts with the stinger... but that's not snow in W CT. Ripping pingers? Looks like it but flashes to S+ in th emiddle of it. Those height falls are sick..it would be difficult to keep it non-snow for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Definitely has the backlash, but looks more wrn MA up through NH. NW CT too. That's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like a sick deformation band on the GFS from Berks up into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 W CT on north gets it pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Geez that is a nice back end... I'd like to see that a tick east...but it still gets your area with a good 3-4" or so to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Geez that is a nice back end... Hey, We are talking about weather models here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man from like Litchfield county to Berks and even nrn ORH county get ripped for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS actually looks colder on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Upstate NY forum is strangely labebled as Western NY, so I think that throws some people off. Technically, those of us in ENY don't have a home....but I don't mind posting there or here (we share similar weather to Southern VT and the rest of Western NE). I guess I'll be joining you fine folks on the discussion over here, seems no one in the Upstate NY forum has anything to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice backlash for everyone..Get that ULL underneath us..and it goes to town from west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is impressive, what a monster. Almost like two separate areas of snow will develop depending on when it cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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