CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't buy that 850 warmth getting into Dendrite land Me, yes for a little while , but not much further north or west I agree. It may be a bit overzealous with that. I will admit the backlash aspect of it is rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good luck guys. I'm going to unplug from the forum and just enjoy whatever comes my way. Encouraging runs at 0z last night. Less encouraging this morning though. We'll see what 12z brings. Haven't changed my thinking since Monday. 5-8" final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well when Will and Scooter tell us it did move east a bit and colder a bit..most of us believe them Well when Will and Scooter tell us it did move east a bit and colder a bit..most of us believe them We did not lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those 10-50 miles means a lot to millions of folks 10 miles on one run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good luck guys. I'm going to unplug from the forum and just enjoy whatever comes my way. Encouraging runs at 0z last night. Less encouraging this morning though. We'll see what 12z brings. Haven't changed my thinking since Monday. 5-8" final call. That sounds like a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 will wait for GFS/EURO for final call but for right now for my backyard is 4-6" on front end.. rain and the 1-2" back end.. 100% In agreement. 4-8" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those 10-50 miles means a lot to millions of folks ...Millions upon millions of lives are counting on this. If we work hard together I know we can make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am shocked that you would only post the negatives. shocked! If they (6z gfs, NAM) were improved I would have said so. Both looked less favorable with more mixing, compared to 0z. The alternative would be to not post anything, as though it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That sounds like a good idea. I am going to be on here to read every report from south to north, track the snow line, watch the evolution, probably one of the most historic storms in a long while nationally and probably full of surprises up here. That stinger (sorry tipper) is gaining Mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pound one out on the box as you watch the 12z runs come in. Your area should still be able to get 4-7 Yaaa ahhh I want 8" than 4" Backlash. 4-7 can suck my bellows. The only 12" storm of the season for my yard I missed! Still going with 8-14 here. Kocin said I've got a chance. I've got a chance. His area is going between NO Snow in DC on the GFS to 2 Feet in the NAM. Ahh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Over 2" qpf on the nam........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Once there is a westerly component to the winds, it's downsloping FTL. Exactly, Been down this road before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I agree. It may be a bit overzealous with that. I will admit the backlash aspect of it is rather interesting. I'm starting to wonder if this comes in two phases...the warm conveyor belt front end thump which should be pretty good for many here. Then almost a lull where its drizzle/light rain (perhaps some heavier rain in far SE areas) with some icing and/or snizzle in the interior...then this ULL keeps moving out underneath us which has to argue for a pretty solid CCB to finish ti as heights crash SE. It could be a pretty interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am going to be on here to read every report from south to north, track the snow line, watch the evolution, probably one of the most historic storms in a long while nationally and probably full of surprises up here. That stinger (sorry tipper) is gaining Mo Thats the part most weenies cant comprehend...too worried about their yard. If it dont give them all snow and it turns to rain they quit. I would hate to have them on my team, down 2-0 in the second half and i look around.....heads down, teary eyed, underwears spotted brown...bunch a sissy mofos. Get slapped like catholic school boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at NAM soundings looks like perhaps a transition to ZR for at least parts of CT near 0z tomorrow...if those thermal soundings verified as so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yaaa ahhh I want 8" than 4" Backlash. 4-7 can suck my bellows. The only 12" storm of the season for my yard I missed! Still going with 8-14 here. Kocin said I've got a chance. I've got a chance. His area is going between NO Snow in DC on the GFS to 2 Feet in the NAM. Ahh! My word. What a very strange person you are. Anyhow! Good morning to the rest of you, suddenly strikingly stable by comparison. My office is once again asking me to make a call regarding tomorrow's morning commute. I really wish they'd at least pay for a subscription to better model access if they're going to routinely put these kinds of decisions on me. I'm thinking we'll actually be able to get here, damage will be done during business hours and then the flip to rain/dry slot. My hangup is whether to bother indicating that backlash bomb that the GFS/NAM want to swing through tomorrow evening/night or just sort of gloss over it (The euro just didn't seem to have anything similar...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if this comes in two phases...the warm conveyor belt front end thump which should be pretty good for many here. Then almost a lull where its drizzle/light rain (perhaps some heavier rain in far SE areas) with some icing and/or snizzle in the interior...then this ULL keeps moving out underneath us which has to argue for a pretty solid CCB to finish ti as heights crash SE. It could be a pretty interesting storm. That's kind of how I'm playing it too. No matter the model, we will dryslot...pretty sure about that. Obviously it does not mean precip shuts off completely..but has the look of crappy snowgrowth and/or snizzle...FZDZ..etc. Maybe a pellet or two. Then we just have to see how the back end proceeds. The front end job is sort of a high stakes here. Literally half a degree means the difference of like 3-4". RGEM FWIW is a tick south of the 00z position at hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thats the part most weenies cant comprehend...too worried about their yard. If it dont give them all snow and it turns to rain they quit. I would hate to have them on my team, down 2-0 in the second half and i look around.....heads down, teary eyed, underwears spotted brown...bunch a sissy mofos. Get slapped like catholic school boys. I think you take some posts on here too seriously. I was joking about imby last night. I will kiddingly whine that I "only" got 19' during the Feb 13 Blizzard, that I am only close to seasonal this year, etc. But most of us find the weather itself fascinating to see unfold... if this turns to rain it will be interesting, but if there is thundersnow, or a flash freeze, or backlash, or high winds, etc, even more so. Chillax, prop up your feet, and let the weenie in you flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At hr 36, RGEM is a bit north of 00z now. Just south of ISP it seems. Almost looks like the S/W in the midwest wants to phase with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if this comes in two phases...the warm conveyor belt front end thump which should be pretty good for many here. Then almost a lull where its drizzle/light rain (perhaps some heavier rain in far SE areas) with some icing and/or snizzle in the interior...then this ULL keeps moving out underneath us which has to argue for a pretty solid CCB to finish ti as heights crash SE. It could be a pretty interesting storm. We've talked about this over the years..but whenever we get the ULL to move south of us..there's always a nice band of snow that is typically fairly substantial. it happens more often over NNE as the ULL tend to go to our north....but when they move south of LI ..fun things tend to happen in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Over 2" qpf on the nam........lol Mr Jack, Mr Jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM is starting to really cool that 900mb layer...the soundings for ORH are almost looking like pellets for a while and then ZR. I think we'll see those layers cool more as we get closer. Could be pretty icy in the interior for a time before it flips back to snow...esp north of the pike and W of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks like damage is during morning hours including rush hour. Then during business hours it lets up, changes to rain etc. then ramps up again by the pm rush. Its gonna be a tricky call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Over 2" qpf on the nam........lol Over 1" on gfs, though. Getting juicier... GYX map now features a few 14-18" patches in some mt locations (Monads, Presidentials, Abraham.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mr Jack, Mr Jackpot Westerly winds on the backside may prevent that region from jacking. I like interior SE NH personally for 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think you take some posts on here too seriously. I was joking about imby last night. I will kiddingly whine that I "only" got 19' during the Feb 13 Blizzard, that I am only close to seasonal this year, etc. But most of us find the weather itself fascinating to see unfold... if this turns to rain it will be interesting, but if there is thundersnow, or a flash freeze, or backlash, or high winds, etc, even more so. Chillax, prop up your feet, and let the weenie in you flow. Check my sig. But i Wasnt referring to you, first of all. And second, its people jumping off cliffs that need to chill. Its okay, we will get through this and somehow there is light at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if this comes in two phases...the warm conveyor belt front end thump which should be pretty good for many here. Then almost a lull where its drizzle/light rain (perhaps some heavier rain in far SE areas) with some icing and/or snizzle in the interior...then this ULL keeps moving out underneath us which has to argue for a pretty solid CCB to finish ti as heights crash SE. It could be a pretty interesting storm. Yes, yesterday it started to jell, the signal for exactly what you describe was on the board for a while, have to think 12/9/05, seriously no extraneous hype just that kind of situation, remember CC got all rain on that. that day is ingrained din my mind. Heavy front end dump to sleet, snow grains fine mist, a little rain then heavy sleet as I looked up a wall of white came down from the heavens accompanied by a huge thunderous roar of wind followed quickly by lightning cracking and thunder then 0 visibility snow. It has that kind of appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 2.50"? DAMN! NAM looks ok for 3-6" on front end in SE MA above the Canal before changeover to copious amounts of rain and than a change back over on the STINGER with another 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes, yesterday it started to jell, the signal for exactly what you describe was on the board for a while, have to think 12/9/05, seriously no extraneous hype just that kind of situation, remember CC got all rain on that. that day is ingrained din my mind. Heavy front end dump to sleet, snow grains fine mist, a little rain then heavy sleet as I looked up a wall of white came down from the heavens accompanied by a huge thunderous roar of wind followed quickly by lightning cracking and thunder then 0 visibility snow. It has that kind of appeal. Well I'm definitely not going to break out the 12/9/05 analog...that one lost like 20mb in 3 hours over parts of SE MA near the Canal....this won't sniff that, but we could see a nice ending IF that 5H low can squeak out underneath block island. I'm still thinking that the best will be to the west into W MA and CNE, but we've seen a bit of a subtle trend to bring that SE a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Westerly winds on the backside may prevent that region from jacking. I like interior SE NH personally for 12+ Downslope dandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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