Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 09z SREF track MSL from mouth of Chesapeake Bay at 996mb to between ACK/MVY and over Elbow with a broad 980mb circulation. 976mb low in GOM. Bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 2" 24h qpf is now hitting LI/ SCT/ SRI/ SEMA Damn. Probably a bit overdone there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://mnoy.es/1ePVT3h Well this map isn't bad. I was afraid PWM was gonna get hosed, but we're right on the cusp of the 12". Forecasts here still calling for up to 12 even with rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think Noyes underdoes VT in this one. He must be riding the GFS/NAM and tossing the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Have them out on SV to 33hrs, Looks like 09z is going to be west of 03z with the surface track great, more taint, no? Mannix had us progged for 8-12" with 9-15" north. Looked like a pretty large dryslot sometime tomorrow night for a time, but not sure on the accuracy of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Corey's post was sig-worthy. If there was a definition in the dictionary for SNE winter storm meltdown that would have been it. With that being said, now that we are within 24 hours is it safe to assume that there really won't be a high degree of confidence on a track, meaning is this system really that hard to forecast where it will end up being a Bill Belichick type of deal where "It is what it is", and will really be a nowcast type of deal with no definite track honed in on even within 12 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://mnoy.es/1ePVT3h 9 for Bos seems a little high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think Noyes underdoes VT in this one. He must be riding the GFS/NAM and tossing the Euro. Ill be up in Pittsburg, NH tomorrow. Im expecting more than 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam looks similar to 6z through 18 maybe a little stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see the nam doing what CoastalWX talked about last night, the ull in se canada is trimming the top of the system as it tries to close off at 5h. That feature also looks a bit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM @27 (edit) 998 east of va beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 9 for Bos seems a little high? He thinks that the cold is being underestimated on the models and that Bos and surrounding areas end up with more pastey snow than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS in Gray ME puts 10-14" up to the water all the way down to Casco Bay, with some drop off for York Co east of I-95. Is this consistent with other area predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Everyone rags on the Srefs, But everyone goes take a peek to see what they have lol, Its like the Nam but worse if there is such a thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @33 S of LI and E NJ @990 looks cooler 850 line still in SE Mass but moving NW.. nice front end snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol I mean the best banding may be just south but I think theyll do pretty well...I hope lol. Should be a good weekend up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 man NAM is crawling up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I mean the best banding may be just south but I think theyll do pretty well...I hope lol. Should be a good weekend up there. DT must have forget that there are other counties besides york county in maine , He does not put much time into his maps for the NE, Pittsburgh NH always does better then expected usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like right over elbow of Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man i am flirting with that mix line, 988mb right over the elbow, Awful warm to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like right over elbow of Cape. maybe just east @986 850 deep into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Toaster bath in PF land. Eek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Toaster bath in PF land. Eek. Ugly run right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Toaster bath in PF land. Eek. Check out the 36/39 1000/500 mb slices vs the 0z. If I were anywhere near the mix line I'd be worried. That's a big jump in toaster temps. Guidance wobbling around but the Beast to SR swath still looks great. It's a tough deal though SE and NW of there as one may get smoked by light snow and the other may have a surprise pelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not good for E NE. West is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't see much movement between 42-45hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check out the 36/39 1000/500 mb slices vs the 0z. If I were anywhere near the mix line I'd be worried. That's a big jump in toaster temps. Guidance wobbling around but the Beast to SR swath still looks great. It's a tough deal though SE and NW of there as one may get smoked by light snow and the other may have a surprise pelt. NAM seems to be inching NW at both 850 and the surface, though. I'm amazed that the Euro remained the same at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's a front end job for most, people have to just accept that. That part has not changed. The Berks have the best chance of getting into snow after maybe mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 9 for Bos seems a little high? 9 for Bos seems a little high? He said 6 for Boston, hard to tell from that map but looks like the 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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