Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here's to hoping the front dumper looks good on the 12z runs today. The 00z Euro and 06z NAM make me happy. Both gave about 6-8" before changeover. Could be some nice convection in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yikes...that worries me... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Meso models will hone in on the pivot point today...2' totals in nw ct to w ma to s nh to me, cracker jacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is an odd storm Model confusion abounds. It doesn't matter down here but for many or you it's a huge stakes game. Hopefully we get somewhere near consensus at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6z runs were interesting...wasn't expecting that after the east trend at 00z. -21F this morning here...plenty of cold in the north country. Everyone should read the ATL AFD...that's stuff Blizz dreams about, using words like catastrophic, paralyzing, crippling, etc in an AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ray will not like the new box snowfall map 2-4 near 128 4-6 to Billerica/Andover they aren't buying any mostly snow front end until outside 495 10-14 N ORH to wa wa 14-18 MPM Why? Matches my thoughts from yesterday quite well. 6-12" outside of 495 4-8" imby 3-6" inside rt 128 2-5" se of Boston. Folks keep acting like this is some big enigma, when its been pretty apparent how this plays out fpor the past day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Of course when we need the hard data, the storm down south is forcing no RAOBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yes GON FTL I like your map I'm shocked. Meso models will hone in on the pivot point today...2' totals in nw ct to w ma to s nh to me, cracker jacked. That would be sweet. I don't think we've had a two-footer since the October storm. I don't think this one will do it, but we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's disheartening to look at the Warning Map for the CONUS. Kind of speaks for itself. If you acknowledged the writing on the wall, this isn't very disheartening....but rather a moderate snowfall that brings many to their seasonal mean, at a rather early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Model confusion abounds. It doesn't matter down here but for many or you it's a huge stakes game. Hopefully we get somewhere near consensus at 12z Someone will see over a foot, and perhaps comfortably so, but it won't be withinn 75 miles of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Weenie me if you must, but I think we could see that. 976 mb in the GOM, Yeah someone is going to see 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6z runs were interesting...wasn't expecting that after the east trend at 00z. -21F this morning here...plenty of cold in the north country. Everyone should read the ATL AFD...that's stuff Blizz dreams about, using words like catastrophic, paralyzing, crippling, etc in an AFD. Thanks for the tip.. "IN CASE IT HASNT BEEN MADE CLEAR ALREADY...THESE ARE CATASTROPHIC AND CRIPPLING TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS. IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BE TOO LATE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man what an AFD from FFC WFO. Wow. No saving it for the next shift there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In about 10-15min on NCEP. They are late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Someone will see over a foot, and perhaps comfortably so, but it won't be withinn 75 miles of me. Haven't really changed my thinking it stinks for me and like I told Josh a few days ago there's no solution that works for the Cape. The jackpot will be Berkshire to Sunday River and on either side of that line which gels well with what everyone seems to be saying at this stage. I hope PF gets in on it but he may not, I'm not yet buying the west Euro...having the UKMET on your side usually isn't a great thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are late storms been cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's a lot more snow for eastern areas on the 6z NAM than what I expected based on the comments. This is after looking at the hi-res NAM. Verbatim it would be very heavy wet snow at 32.5 degrees or so. Just the kind to cause tree problems. Precarious of course since it relies on dynamic cooling and huge lift. I think the BOX 2-5" forecast or 2-4" is reasonable but there is a chance of a positive bust if we get slammed super hard before the warmth surges in aloft. Eastern areas have cleaned up so far this winter, I'm glad the wealth is being shared a bit more with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 storms been cancelled NCEP cant believe what there seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Have them out on SV to 33hrs, Looks like 09z is going to be west of 03z with the surface track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 snowing here right now, you all can bite me this may be the most snow I see from this system ha! Light OES I guess with the sun out but pretty. Are people still really using the SREFs in 2014? They went out with Myspace I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I was surprised to see bob and darren hold last night's call with upton going 10-14 overnight for the western half of the southern counties....someone is changing their forecast after the euro today and someone else is hitting a homerun Northern Fairfield Cty always does well in these setups...Upton's got the right idea there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Weenie me if you must, but I think we could see that. thank you. i feel seen and validated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://mnoy.es/1ePVT3h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 snowing here right now, you all can bite me this may be the most snow I see from this system ha! Light OES I guess with the sun out but pretty. Are people still really using the SREFs in 2014? They went out with Myspace I thought. Using? That's a relative term. I like to use them for trends and to also have an idea what the NAM will do. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm shocked. That would be sweet. I don't think we've had a two-footer since the October storm. I don't think this one will do it, but we are due. Unless there is a dramatic shift we get crushed. 10-12" for me 14-18" for you hill folk. Tough call for school administrator's. I would go cancel rather than risk early dismissal chaos just to squeeze in a half day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 snowing here right now, you all can bite me this may be the most snow I see from this system ha! Light OES I guess with the sun out but pretty. Are people still really using the SREFs in 2014? They went out with Myspace I thought. The SREFs are like a bad drug....you know its bad for you but some can't just help themselves. They'll catch on within the next 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The SREFs are like a bad drug....you know its bad for you but some can't just help themselves. They'll catch on within the next 3 runs. With the WRF members now it just seems they're utterly useless. Like a blind man playing darts sometimes it hits the target but in the case of the SREF's it's just by random chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Srefs don't look bad...looks like all snow here and good rates too. SREFs get the 0C line back to Mitch in the Berkshires and up past dendrite and western Maine....they def don;t keep you all snow. But they are likely too warm with that profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREFs get the 0C line back to Mitch in the Berkshires and up past dendrite and western Maine....they def don;t keep you all snow. But they are likely too warm with that profile. yeah...I deleted my post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 09z SREF track MSL from mouth of Chesapeake Bay at 996mb to between ACK/MVY and over Elbow with a broad 980mb circulation. 976mb low in GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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