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East Coast winter storm, February 13th-14th, imminent (Part II)


Typhoon Tip

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Looks like near chatham. Definitely a tick east.

 

Yeah about as much as you can expect from the Euro...it rarely makes jumps more than that.

 

 

You can def see the colder profiles on this run. ORH-MHT might hang onto snow this run...or just a brief taint whereas 12z prob brought it back up to GC.

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Does it sting? Weatherbell doesn't have anything out yet.

 

 

Nope, its like the Ukie..the best back side stuff is out in VT. It is still pretty far west given that it was also really far west at 12z too. Like the ukie, it ticked east but still west of other guidance.

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Yeah about as much as you can expect from the Euro...it rarely makes jumps more than that.

You can def see the colder profiles on this run. ORH-MHT might hang onto snow this run...or just a brief taint whereas 12z prob brought it back up to GC.

That's about what I hoped, so good too see. Would be nice to get another one tomorrow, but we are pretty much honing in on track I think. Maybe room for one more wobbly or something. Defintely a nice finale for the Berks into CNE.

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Nope, its like the Ukie..the best back side stuff is out in VT. It is still pretty far west given that it was also really far west at 12z too. Like the ukie, it ticked east but still west of other guidance.

Something's gotta give one of these times...still sounds like pretty important differences for this range.

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Well I'm out...pretty solid trends tonight for more snow/frozen precip. I think almost all of New England is going to get it good in this one. There's going to be the usual Jackpot Jimmys who cry that someone got 2" more than them obivously.

 

 

FWIW, still watch the kicker/southern stream downstream ridging interaction...it was noticeable this run on the Euro. Kicker was def a bit faster and it prevented the Euro from going nuts closing it off further SW. It sort of helps to keep the shortwave open longer. We'll see how that trends tomorrow.

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Wayyy off topic but I'm going to post this anyone. Will I have much trouble getting from Boston to Sunday River Friday Afternoon? Completely random I know.

 

 

On Topic: Excited with this euro run, seems to be start time thursday morning?

No, unless I am allowed in your car you can not go, lol should be fine.
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***Weenie map disclaimer***10" Ray 10" Tolland 10" Boston 12" ORH Northern RI does very well, close to ORH at a foot. The interior is basically 8-12" 10:1 LE. All coasts even see plowable.

Pretty much the giant 0z improvements we needed, this storm has been a big bag of fun and it hasn't even started yet.

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thermal profiles shifted a good 50 miles west on 6z vs. 0z Nam... eastern SNE roasts on this run... kbos 850mb temps up to 4-5C at 42h-48h... verbatim a few inches on front end, maybe a couple inches on tail-end CCB

 

not the wobble we wanted to see

 

haven't looked at upper air / upstream features, but given east shift of pretty much entire 0z suite, one could hope this is somehow a bad run

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