ice1972 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Seriously now, high societal impact and getting higher up here as more and more of the population comes under the gun. Look for tomorrow's 12z runs to finalize, might want to check your out of power supplies. Just to be safe. For real? I have small 2kw genny that can run the frig but thats about it.......family of four in one bed FTW? Oh F that..... For some reason I can't wrap my head around this one being high impact.........too much uncertainty ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heavy wet snow, high winds to mix, rain to flash freeze with winds, some one on that line will have power issues for certain. Who is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone want to take a stab as to where the CF sets-up, risk of possible TSSN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Steve, where the heck are you? I see you posting from Maine to CT, to southern RI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Steve, where the heck are you? I see you posting from Maine to CT, to southern RI... Steve is omnipresent. The Zen of Zen Masters. I thinks many forecasts are going to be playing catch-up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEFS look maybe near or just inside BM and then bomb east of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Steve is omnipresent. The Zen of Zen Masters. I thinks many forecasts are going to be playing catch-up tomorrow. Why are they too soft on snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEFS look maybe near or just inside BM and then bomb east of CC. You may do really well after all. Still warm on these models but with heights crashing it may be overdone. This was a very favorable trend. If we can get the low out by the BM...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEFS look maybe near or just inside BM and then bomb east of CC. Well the east trend appears to be real. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can someone comment on whether the UK / RGEM have any synoptic resemblance to 0z GFS vs. NAM... GFS vs. NAM are worlds apart synoptically... GFS nails us with late-blooming CCB, NAM nails us with front-end thump of a mature storm. Poring over H5, the sagging of the shortwave further south and closing earlier (as Coastal mentioned) might explain the abrupt development east of SNE and CCB late on the GFS. But NAM for multiple runs shows nothing like that. Ironically, NAM never closes off at H5. Loving this drama with big consequences T-minus 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEFS look maybe near or just inside BM and then bomb east of CC.Dang,best part of tbe storm now looks to be 2 nights from now overnight. Hope the Euro finally budges tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEFS look maybe near or just inside BM and then bomb east of CC. Is that where we want it to bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can someone comment on whether the UK / RGEM have any synoptic resemblance to 0z GFS vs. NAM... GFS vs. NAM are worlds apart synoptically... GFS nails us with late-blooming CCB, NAM nails us with front-end thump of a mature storm. Poring over H5, the sagging of the shortwave further south and closing earlier (as Coastal mentioned) might explain the abrupt development east of SNE and CCB late on the GFS. But NAM for multiple runs shows nothing like that. Ironically, NAM never closes off at H5. Loving this drama with big consequences T-minus 48... NAM did get us with a CCB finish...it wasn't as ridiculous as the GFS of course, but its there. Ukie is still pretty far west but not as much as earlier. GGEM def went east and it sort of a compromise between the NAM and GFS for the finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ukie has a stronger front ender which makes sense to me. Not sure if it is a convection thing on the GFS or not, but seems suspiciously dry. Canadian also has a front end thump, but does not get much precip to western SNE, Ukie and Canadian both have a backlash signal with Ukie more western SNE, Canadian more central and eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is that where we want it to bomb? Yeah that would be a good spot for it. I still would like to see the EC and ensembles. My guess is they may not budge much, but a tick east would be a good thing considering how stubborn that suite of guidance is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Why are they too soft on snow totals? They may not be. This probably still has some tricks to pull. John Q public relies on the Government. Being the go-to outlet informing and protecting the masses. They have to start conservative and ramp up if necessary. I tend to weenie out and have fun, but come crunch time the amateur wanna be comes forth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'd take the 00z UKMET and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just wish we had a strong High Pressure north of here... imagine how amazing that would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ukie has a stronger front ender which makes sense to me. Not sure if it is a convection thing on the GFS or not, but seems suspiciously dry. Canadian also has a front end thump, but does not get much precip to western SNE, Ukie and Canadian both have a backlash signal with Ukie more western SNE, Canadian more central and eastern SNE. Definitely is! At 36 hours it's got strobe lightning over the interface along the G-"string" (QPF interpretation); it's almost like it loses that and goes, 'wait, I have about a billion microbars of lift to contend with', and we end up with it trying to correct with that big output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Long time lurker. First time poster. Should be a fun storm that comes down to now casting Here in Milton, MA 7 miles SW of Boston expecting a mixed bag, and hoping for the best. Hoping NNE can finally cash in. You guys are long due for a good one up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM did get us with a CCB finish...it wasn't as ridiculous as the GFS of course, but its there. Ukie is still pretty far west but not as much as earlier. GGEM def went east and it sort of a compromise between the NAM and GFS for the finale. All in all great trends tonight. Most of us were dusting off the toaster this afternoon. I don't get the QPF distribution on the GFS... seems a bit suspect to me. Comparing SLP track and H5, NAM actually looks a little flatter at H5, GFS a little more intense and negatively tilted. The mid-Atlantic folks were commenting on this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Long time lurker. First time poster. Should be a fun storm that comes down to now casting Here in Milton, MA 7 miles SW of Boston expecting a mixed bag, and hoping for the best. Hoping NNE can finally cash in. You guys are long due for a good one up there. Not really, we're just greedy. We've really had a good 10 years here, save one epic bad winter.. but those happen. This has been no 1980s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Model diagnostic disco... they comment on exactly what we mentioned, that NAM never closes off at H5, GFS shortwave further south... favoring 0z GFS over NAM, to add to the collective wtf: 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLYAFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF / 21Z SREF MEANCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE...BELOW AVERAGE FORPRECIPITATION TYPERELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE LATESTAVAILABLE GUIDANCE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...BUT THESE DIFFERENCESTRANSLATE TO LARGE IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE WITH P-TYPE. ONECONSISTENT TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS...BUTTHERE HAS BEEN MORE OF A WOBBLE OCCURRING BETWEEN EAST/WESTDISPLACEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH / CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOWWITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE 00Z NAM IS STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE OFTHE GUIDANCE WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTEARLY THU AND NEVER REALLY CLOSES OFF A CENTER AT 500 MB...WHICHIS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE REMAINING MODELS. THE NAMTHEREFORE HAS A DIFFERING 850 MB LOW ORIENTATION AND ISFASTER/WEAKER AT THE SURFACE. THE 00Z GFS POSITION LOOKSFINE...JUST A BIT EAST OF THE 12Z ECMWF BUT IS WEAKER AT 850-500MB BY ABOUT 30 M.THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS...INITIALIZED 12Z/11...SHOW3 CLUSTERS AT 00Z/14. THE ECMWF CLUSTER IS OVER THE DELMARVA WITHTHE 12Z ECMWF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS...FOLLOWED BYTHE GEFS MEMBERS ENE OF THE ECMWF...AND THE CMC NORTHEAST OF THEGEFS. GIVEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EAST COASTSTORM ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. AND APPEAR TO BE WELLSAMPLED...THE REASONABLY CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF/UKMET APPEAR TO BEWOBBLING ABOUT A POINT LIKELY TO VERIFY...ALONG WITH THE SREFMEAN...WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF / 21Z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow this party really died. 24 Minutes of just waiting for a EURO poster lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow this party really died. 24 Minutes of just waiting for a EURO poster lol?Me too. This is one of the biggest runs of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro def colder and a bit east of 12z at 48h...it is stronger again too. Stronger and east. IT doesn't pinch off 500mb as much down in the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The silence is deafening. It's always been this way, lurking, surfing. Recovering from the overdose of an eastern shift. Get bored go check the city that never sleeps. EURO model runs should be in a thread unto itself. Many NY posters have access to the early frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro def colder and a bit east of 12z at 48h...it is stronger again too. Stronger and east. IT doesn't pinch off 500mb as much down in the mid-atlantic. The silence is deafening. It's always been this way, lurking, surfing. Recovering from the overdose of an eastern shift. Get bored go check the city that never sleeps. EURO model runs should be in a thread unto itself. Many NY posters have access to the early frames. And of course Will. Good start. Locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like near chatham. Definitely a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like near chatham. Definitely a tick east. Does it sting? Weatherbell doesn't have anything out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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