RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 just when you think you have the fastball squared up, its a 12 to 6 curve that buckles your knees.....0z euro, oh my. here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Uncle looked like it ticked east and colder. It was, though it is still pretty amped. But def not quite as much as 12z. The models are definitely struggling with this deep neg tilt southern stream...they naturally want to amplify it, but there is the physical boundary problem of the kicker behind it...the downstream ridging runs into a brick wall when it tries to bend back to the west at a certian point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well we have to see how the other guidance does, but this may be the tick east we wanted/spoke about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What role do you think the hurricane hunter data plays in the drastic change to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What is a stinger?? When a band of snow develops well behind a surface low as the mid level disturbances swoop in. Not really what's happening here.... I took the dogs for a walk after Will said the GFS looked pedestrian and came back to look at the run, what in the Sam Hell, porno 3 We're heading towards an entirely different evolution it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It was, though it is still pretty amped. But def not quite as much as 12z. The models are definitely struggling with this deep neg tilt southern stream...they naturally want to amplify it, but there is the physical boundary problem of the kicker behind it...the downstream ridging runs into a brick wall when it tries to bend back to the west at a certian point. The flow over the nrn tier is also going to try and flat top any downstream ridging. I was noticing that ULL near Hudson bay is having a say in the flow. In this case, it looked a bit further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What role do you think the hurricane hunter data plays in the drastic change to the GFS? Dropsondes help sample the atmosphere with actual raw data instead of aircraft reports and satellite derived quantities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just a weenie reference to backlash. Thanks. I always appreciate you responses and analysis . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For reference: Good find. Everyone here would take that vs. 12z UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The flow over the nrn tier is also going to try and flat top any downstream ridging. I was noticing that ULL near Hudson bay is having a say in the flow. In this case, it looked a bit further SE. Yeah...Randall Cunningham style circa 1991. This is definitely a bit of a convoluted 00z suite thus far. But on the whole it is colder. I think that trend may go a bit more as models "see" the antecedent airmass a bit better. Earlier, I was trying to come up with an analog where we have this type of an airmass (both mid-level and low levels) near the onset of the storm with the tracks the models are showing and got plain rain even past rt 128. I tried really hard but I can';t find one. Maybe someone has a good example...but I couldn't find it and I am usually pretty good at that stuff. I still wonder if there is a bit larger zone of IP than is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For reference: That low is actually further DE around Penobscott Bay, Not that it matters much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 IMO that's not really a stinger. That's a low imploding in the perfect position. Not upper energy trailing the low. JMHO Wtf is a stinger? There's a recently coined term called a "sting jet", but that is associated with a tropospheric fold. But youz guyzes are talking about QPF stingers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't stingers drop maybe a 0.1 to 0.25" of qpf? I agree with Polar, this is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What is a stinger?? In this discussion it's the trailing precip to the west give or take as the low center departs....wiki indicates this is predominantly a wind related phenomenon.... http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet http://m.livescience.com/29279-storm-sting-jets-explained.html Watch the video.....interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The flow over the nrn tier is also going to try and flat top any downstream ridging. I was noticing that ULL near Hudson bay is having a say in the flow. In this case, it looked a bit further SE. I thought the ull in canada looked a little more east which i assumed would help funnel cold air on the nw side a bit better but i didnt think about it actually stearing the flow. Good obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's no official definition for "stinger"...some of us called the hellecious CCB from the 12/9/05 low nuking out a "stinger" because the presentation on radar looks like one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah...Randall Cunningham style circa 1991. This is definitely a bit of a convoluted 00z suite thus far. But on the whole it is colder. I think that trend may go a bit more as models "see" the antecedent airmass a bit better. Earlier, I was trying to come up with an analog where we have this type of an airmass (both mid-level and low levels) near the onset of the storm with the tracks the models are showing and got plain rain even past rt 128. I tried really hard but I can';t find one. Maybe someone has a good example...but I couldn't find it and I am usually pretty good at that stuff. I still wonder if there is a bit larger zone of IP than is currently modeled. Yeah I certainly could see something where the track does not change much at all, but it's colder overall as you alluded to. It still could tick east, but just saying. I'd like to see the euro slide a bit east and not wrap up near Wallops island. It was interesting that it dug at 500 mb on the GFS, but the S/W sort of swung NE instead of sharpening and moving more NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah guys we are just throwing that term around casually, don't read into it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wtf is a stinger? There's a recently coined term called a "sting jet", but that is associated with a tropospheric fold. But youz guyzes are talking about QPF stingers? Not everything is a meteorological term. It's basically when the CCB or backend of a storm cranks over an area and drops heavy snow. It "stings" the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow is this a tough place to be for Pros / public Mets tnite... NAM and GFS are synoptically worlds apart within 48h of go-time. NAM with a well-developed low that hits SNE with front-end thump vs. GFS with a diffuse weaker low that bombs late and hits NE with a commahead. Wild wild ride on the 0z suite tnite. If there's any bottomline, the northwest track shifts have stopped clearly... clearly a good trend for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's no official definition for "stinger"...some of us called the hellecious CCB from the 12/9/05 low nuking out a "stinger" because the presentation on radar looks like one Speaking of...http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00126.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Time to break-out BUFKIT. Soundings will be interesting. 1.75" ground zero Boston. How much is frozen and how far N and W is the taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Very interesting stuff with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 A Foot of Snow in 6 Hours December 9th, 2005 Redux Type Commahead at the end of the GFS. But I'm All Rain. Like many. I swear to All of you - If That happens and I Rain the whole time? I will NEVER EVER track snow again. I will be absolutely Done. Back to learning Tunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Canadian made a pretty good shift east. It almost had no choice, but looks just west of the BM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Portuguese Man O War color maps have a stinger, look at Julian map for example. Hence stinger, even Wills radar has the jellyfish look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think a combo of that ULL near Hudson bay sagging south and the s/w digging a little more south is helping. Some of this is the result of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah guys we are just throwing that term around casually, don't read into it too much. Hmm, it's a little troubling though, because I suspect the term might have originated from the studies surrounding 'sting jets' and tropospheric folding, made popular by the example Will gave above; but it was studied prior to that. But if people confuse the two - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.