CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Harv was mentioning his concern for this as well. Wind seems to peak after the changeover to rain, do you think that would make damage more or less likely? (As in do you think the snow would be even heavier by that point or be washed away by the arrival of strongest winds) Well I was thinking even 15-20kts of wind on paste before changeover could cause that. It's just a thought...a little early for worrying, but something that came to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Quite the gradient from pwm inland. Wow! No love for PWM and south along the coast. Still hoping for a slight slip east in the track to bring those snow totals over the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Folks should try to not be to numbers oriented because 6" of this stuff is going to have every bit the impact, if not greater, than that of the 1' of confetti that we have grown accustomed to this season. Oh yeah you are going to get some real man snow, none of this fluff stuff. I know it may not be the event you hoped for, but I think this could be fun for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BTV WRF has a nice front ender. I also wonder if the area from BOS to 128 is game for some tree damage and outages should 5"+ paste come to fruition. i like how on the 18z..it is a front end thump BOMB the front end comes in around 7 am and between 10 am and 1pm the winds go from E to NE and between the wind shift and high omega thump it actually has 35 isotherm move East over ocean (from immediate east coast areas) and we get thump (10-4 pm) just a crushing thump really (.75 +) we can dream...... just hope it has right idea with BL winds turning NE after 10 and BL coolin a tad (temporarily) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ IF ONLY it was on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Folks should try to not be to numbers oriented because 6" of this stuff is going to have every bit the impact, if not greater, than that of the 1' of confetti that we have grown accustomed to this season.DefinitelyMy brother in Foxboro lost power for 1 week due to 6" of cement in the Octobomb while I kept it in 22" of powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ice is the big concern obviously but the cement snow can be just as damaging to the power grid. I'll take an all rainer than a night without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BTV WRF has a nice front ender. I also wonder if the area from BOS to 128 is game for some tree damage and outages should 5"+ paste come to fruition. Love those pasty snows even if it goes to rain or mix. That's putting some QPF into the pack. Everyone comes out with a net gain in snow even if you mix or change over. Hopefully it can stay where it is so we all can get some snow from up here down to BOS. Don't need a jackpot, just want 3-4" as yesterday most models didn't have measurable here except for the ECM ...anymore is just a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well I was thinking even 15-20kts of wind on paste before changeover could cause that. It's just a thought...a little early for worrying, but something that came to mind. Is it possible power outages and damage could happen up here? Or are we dealing with more powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 not sure i have ever seen <1 go to 8-10 in a five mile span lol up and down entire coast. this will be a fun now cast for CP of maine. nightmare forecast I think that <1 is actually in the surf off Kittery. But, you're point is well taken. I'm eager to hear what John up in Bath is able to report. Probably a world of different from his digs to the Dunkin' Donuts on Rt. 1 a mile and a half away. A similar difference a mile south to Phippsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 i like how on the 18z the front end comes in around 7 am and between 10 am and 1pm the winds go from E to NE and between the wind shift and high omega thump it actually has 35 isotherm move East over ocean (from immediate east coast areas) and we get thump (10-4 pm) just a crushing thump really (.75 +) we can dream...... just hope it has right idea with BL winds turning NE after 10 and BL coolin a tad (temporarily) Wind direction is absolutely key. Part of the reason why the isotherms shift east is because of the strong lift and cooling happening at the same time. Those areas that would read like 32-33 on that models are probably like 31.5 in actuality. That model displays exactly what I want to play out. Now if it only will...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21Z SREF has this tracking between ACK and the BM with the highest spread to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is it possible power outages and damage could happen up here? Or are we dealing with more powder? I don't think so. I don't think it will be a wet enough snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let's hope even here it's lots of tree damaging wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21Z SREF has this tracking between ACK and the BM with the highest spread to the NW.QPF bumpity bump, interior areas getting smoked, congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's pretty amazing how just a few days ago the concern was a more out too sea solution because of the kicker. Now we can barely get the kicker to do anything to help this threat from coming way west, and flooding many with warmth. Pretty sure wiz said yesterday he could envision this event becoming amped enough where the kicker wouldn't do much of anything. Props to him on that call if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Love those pasty snows even if it goes to rain or mix. That's putting some QPF into the pack. Everyone comes out with a net gain in snow even if you mix or change over. Hopefully it can stay where it is so we all can get some snow from up here down to BOS. Don't need a jackpot, just want 3-4" as yesterday most models didn't have measurable here except for the ECM ...anymore is just a bonus. I think you guys are good. I'm hoping for 4-6 here. That would likely be a net gain. I honestly can't complain...I've done well this winter. The baton is slowly being passed to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let's hope even here it's lots of tree damaging wet snowActually starting to think about flooding issues at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think that <1 is actually in the surf off Kittery. But, you're point is well taken. I'm eager to hear what John up in Bath is able to report. Probably a world of different from his digs to the Dunkin' Donuts on Rt. 1 a mile and a half away. A similar difference a mile south to Phippsburg. I'll definitely be on the battle line. Will be watching the CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well I was thinking even 15-20kts of wind on paste before changeover could cause that. It's just a thought...a little early for worrying, but something that came to mind. Cool, thanks. Still thinking a minor tick east happens 0z tonight? Given the firmness of the modeling today it seems like it would be a *really* slight shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Actually starting to think about flooding issues at workIm thinking like 6-8 of potatoes here then sleet then back to 2-4 of fluff on the backlash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 QPF bumpity bump, interior areas getting smoked, congrats Dendrite Looking at the mean H7 RH I think it's more congrats ALB-MPV-BML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wind direction is absolutely key. Part of the reason why the isotherms shift east is because of the strong lift and cooling happening at the same time. Those areas that would read like 32-33 on that models are probably like 31.5 in actuality. That model displays exactly what I want to play out. Now if it only will...lol. Scott this may seem obvious to some What are the causes for the wind shift at that time .....is it the low deepening and pulling some NE winds down from Maine ...or what should we hope to see....(i really can't make out MSLP strength/track well on that model) esp at that time. the lower resolution version has some idea but rain snow line gets further NW first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 When the board is in super stealth mode, Everyone's location is not shown At my work this afternoon, no ones location was showing. At home now, I can see everyones. I think the locations greatly cut down on IMBY posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cool, thanks. Still thinking a minor tick east happens 0z tonight? Given the firmness of the modeling today it seems like it would be a *really* slight shift. Just pray for big front end thump ....track meh i dont think it's going 75 miles SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cool, thanks. Still thinking a minor tick east happens 0z tonight? Given the firmness of the modeling today it seems like it would be a *really* slight shift. Ugh, I know. I guess when we say Rick east we are referring to final track vs what is modeled. I might be wrong, but could I see a tick east? Yes. It wouldn't shock me if tonight or tomorrow the euro has a slight nudge east. However, remember it is a srn stream system and these never really want to go east. I think all in all it doesn't mean a lot of it goes like the euro or perhaps near ACK. It doesn't change the front end aspect of it really....the track difference would be more for a flip back to snow. Some of you I think are putting too much emphasis on the backlash. If anything it's probably more western areas into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At my work this afternoon, no ones location was showing. At home now, I can see everyones. I think the locations greatly cut down on IMBY posts. We've been toggling the forum back and forth between regular and performance mode during model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That little weenie High Pressure Near Quebec showing up Thursday is better than just a retreating high and a Low moving east from great lakes.....i wonder what that can do for areas that are borderline....will it help in N'rly drain getting established? or what benny's does that have ....track more SE than where it would have gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Scott this may seem obvious to some What are the causes for the wind shift at that time .....is it the low deepening and pulling some NE winds down from Maine ...or what should we hope to see....(i really can't make out MSLP strength/track well on that model) esp at that time. the lower resolution version has some idea but rain snow line gets further NW first. As the low deepens and approaches the winds start to back from E to NE. It's the response from lowering air pressure off to the south. Winds will naturally want to flow towards low pressure. Lower the air pressure and get more of a response. This is what we call ageostrophic flow. Winds begin to flow at more of a perpendicular angle to the isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We've been toggling the forum back and forth between regular and performance mode during model runs. Considering this is the largest population impact of a storm in years...you guys are doing the best you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 can we put any stock in this nam run? any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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