New Englander Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thumper of heavy snow requiring plows for the morning, transitions to torrential rains for eastern areas, It'll be messy. Harv was mentioning he thinks there'll be an area where waterlogged snow gets hit hard by the wind resulting in widespread outages Thursday night, said perhaps around i95 iirc. That is the worst. Snow then a torrential rain. This area can be tricky. Go 10-15 miles NW and it is a blizzard. Go 10-15 SE and it is pouring. That being said...Yeah the wind is a concern. I am thinking we will get about 6 inches then slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is the worst. Snow then a torrential rain. This area can be tricky. Go 10-15 miles NW and it is a blizzard. Go 10-15 SE and it is pouring. That being said...Yeah the wind is a concern. I am thinking we will get about 6 inches then slop. Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where are you? Franklin Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Franklin Mass Yeah, certainly a gradient where you are but you're generally in a good spot. I grew up in Peabody and the gradient there more severe with the ocean influence. But Lowell usually does pretty well considering I'm only 20 miles NW of Peabody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, certainly a gradient where you are but you're generally in a good spot. I grew up in Peabody and the gradient there more severe with the ocean influence. But Lowell usually does pretty well considering I'm only 20 miles NW of Peabody. Yes there can be a heck of a gradient up there. Whenever I think of that area for snowstorms and gradients... Dec 1992 comes to mind with the sharp cut off in Essex County etc. I grew up in Ashland, which is a pretty good spot, only about 15 miles North of here but what a difference it makes sometimes. It never ceases to amaze me how fast conditions can change if one drives from say, Attleborough to Hopkinton on 495. Not that far but what a difference. It never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All about numbers for me. And pack. Its all about the snow pack, I don't jac so just give me a fair share, And i can't ride on dirt, Give me 20" plus of cement that won't leave until late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Belchertown ? Ludlow, N of the Pike. Quite close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I believe the 18Z is the Western extent and an outlier. Trend be damned, that was a jump. Mid-level warming, retreating H and a kicker that would rather get in bed than kick? WHAT? What I do know is been here before, over and again the rhetoric starts. Complex evolution for modelology before declaring a told you so mentality. 00Z will have a better handle beginning (how many times do you have to experience) a back E track. 50 miles one-way or the other is huge with so much potential. Inland looks golden, I mean white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, certainly a gradient where you are but you're generally in a good spot. I grew up in Peabody and the gradient there more severe with the ocean influence. But Lowell usually does pretty well considering I'm only 20 miles NW of Peabody. I'm mostly looking to be entertained by the potential of flooding and wind damage at this point, the timing is just right to screw over morning activities, and with how heavy the rain should be the front end and the pretty substantial pack should all turn into mashed potatoes. My ideal situation is drains are thoroughly plowed over as this transitions to an absolute downpour fast enough to get some classic flooding in the usual areas. Most tree branches still have a couple to a few inches of snow on them as well, so I wouldn't be shocked at snapped branches scattered about either given the wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So looks like a pretty sure bet for mainly a rainer here. How high do temps get while raining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 When the board is in super stealth mode, Everyone's location is not shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 you like the other guy care only about yo yard. to each is own. To be honest, most on here mainly care about their yard or local area. Most are here to experience the weather in their area and discuss it. It's fun once in a while to watch a cool event somewhere else, but let's not pretend people are more concerned about other regions over their local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 To be honest, most on here mainly care about their yard or local area. Most are here to experience the weather in their area and discuss it. It's fun once in a while to watch a cool event somewhere else, but let's not pretend people are more concerned about other regions over their local area. +1 That's why we have regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 To be honest, most on here mainly care about their yard or local area. Most are here to experience the weather in their area and discuss it. It's fun once in a while to watch a cool event somewhere else, but let's not pretend people are more concerned about other regions over their local area. Truth really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah it should be pretty big on the front...I'm still wondering if there is a narrow zone of pellets or even ZR around 495 or just northwest for a time after the front end thump. I almost envision a period of lousy confection sugar snow as the deep lift moves away but still good H8 frontogenesis out by you. But yeah, we Definitely may see bursts of crap moving through as we get waves of lift sort of traversing the area. GFS sort of shows that Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The mantra of the retreating high is something I would like to address. Looking at model maps it appears to me that high pressure across Canada remains only weaker but isn't that a function of the elongation of HP and also lowering pressures in our region are a function of being involved in the circulation of the huge ULL? I see ageostrophic flow from Northern Maine into the circulation all the way to Georgia. If the high was retreating we would flow SW winds. Just a thought. Not that it means anything to the events, the capture and inflow means more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes there can be a heck of a gradient up there. Whenever I think of that area for snowstorms and gradients... Dec 1992 comes to mind with the sharp cut off in Essex County etc. I grew up in Ashland, which is a pretty good spot, only about 15 miles North of here but what a difference it makes sometimes. It never ceases to amaze me how fast conditions can change if one drives from say, Attleborough to Hopkinton on 495. Not that far but what a difference. It never gets old. Funny, I've been thinking Dec '92 for this storm. I was in Lowell at the time (UML). Drove to Ashby to witness the changeover at around 4, it followed me back to Lowell (but I made an appearance at the Blue Moon on my way, haha). One of the most memorable storms ever. This one won't be near that magnitude, but I have a feeling it'll be a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Franklin Mass Much better spot than North Attleboro, where I'm from. Ironically only ~10 miles or so NW. There were seemingly endless storms I remember in the 80's-90's where Franklin doubled the Attleboro's snowfall. Dec '92 classic example - 12" in Franklin, 6" in N. Attleboro. You'll do okay, not a perfect setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's pretty amazing how just a few days ago the concern was a more out too sea solution because of the kicker. Now we can barely get the kicker to do anything to help this threat from coming way west, and flooding many with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Funny, I've been thinking Dec '92 for this storm. I was in Lowell at the time (UML). Drove to Ashby to witness the changeover at around 4, it followed me back to Lowell (but I made an appearance at the Blue Moon on my way, haha). One of the most memorable storms ever. This one won't be near that magnitude, but I have a feeling it'll be a beast.I recall pushing cars out of the Sarah Ave lot for that. There was drinking involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Quite the gradient from pwm inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's pretty amazing how just a few days ago the concern was a more out too sea solution because of the kicker. Now we can barely get the kicker to do anything to help this threat from coming way west, and flooding many with warmth.remember that thought might come in handy tomorrow if this tics east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 remember that thought might come in handy tomorrow if this tics east. Oh how we hope I am wrong. Lol I do think it will probably tick east to be honest. However, that's still a far cry from an out to sea solution. The kicker seems to be much less of a factor overall, but still could help people see good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BTV WRF has a nice front ender. I also wonder if the area from BOS to 128 is game for some tree damage and outages should 5"+ paste come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Quite the gradient from pwm inland. not sure i have ever seen <1 go to 8-10 in a five mile span lol up and down entire coast. this will be a fun now cast for CP of maine. nightmare forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BTV WRF has a nice front ender. I also wonder if the area from BOS to 128 is game for some tree damage and outages should 5"+ paste come to fruition. the 12z did....but i was at work so didn't post.... is this the 18z as well, Scott? it had a hell of a gradient at 7 am then ....temp gradient washed out mostly with low 30s for front end thump most of area and mid upper 20's elevated interior of sne The bos/128/even half way to 495 area should hope front ender trends thumpity dumpitiy if they want warning IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BTV WRF has a nice front ender. I also wonder if the area from BOS to 128 is game for some tree damage and outages should 5"+ paste come to fruition. Harv was mentioning his concern for this as well. Wind seems to peak after the changeover to rain, do you think that would make damage more or less likely? (As in do you think the snow would be even heavier by that point or be washed away by the arrival of strongest winds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice to see my daughter at Virginia Tech slated for 10-14". Would be nice if some of those amounts can get transported up this way. We'll have a much better idea in the next few hours. Will the data collected from the recon flight be ingested for the 00z run? Is that data that is also shared for the international models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the 12z did....but i was at work so didn't post.... is this the 18z as well, Scott? it had a hell of a gradient at 7 am then ....temp gradient washed out mostly with low 30s for front end thump most of area and mid upper 20's elevated interior of sne The bos/128/even half way to 495 area should hope front ender trends thumpity dumpitiy if they want warning IMO. Folks should try to not be to numbers oriented because 6" of this stuff is going to have every bit the impact, if not greater, than that of the 1' of confetti that we have grown accustomed to this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I have a funny feeling that the 00z suite will have a completely new look resulting in forecast and map rewrites galore. Or, maybe I'm just thinking of that as being a funny thing. One thing I'll say is that there seems to be good collaboration between the NWS offices in NY/NE with respect to this. 12z Euro looks to have had issues with both being too fast in the southern stream and too aggressive in the north. Ruc/UA seem to support the 18z better, but not completely (the energy north of the border is lagging a little it seems vs the models) SO....definitely going to see a continued moving target IMO. I don't care enough to try to figure out which way it may lean...i'm wet either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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