It's Always Sunny Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This isn't the best storm for snow. Tuck those weenies back up into your waist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yep you know our ULL climo rule too. I still like this storm. Tomorrow is the key, all systems well sampled. I wouldn't be totally shocked if it's even still snowing early Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wouldn't call my statement extreme...okay so somebody gets 11-12" after good banding, cool, but to say widespread 10-14" is what I consider extreme. 8-10" with isolated 11-12 is more appropriate. Fair enough. We'll see I guess. I expect 15-18" totals in some areas with a general 8-12" where it stays mostly/all snow. This isn't the best storm for snow. Tuck those weenies back up into your waist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll have some thoughts after I take care of a few things. Gotta feed the weenie in training. Decent numbers I think except maybe like 6-9 at BDL. some tips on weenie training.Buy him a mini shovel, a ruler(straight not the slanted one you use). Always consult with him about snow flake size, show complete disgust over taint. Never ever say, it's only a couple of flakes. Finally never mention to him in the midst of a snow storm that the Euro ENS torch next week and will melt it all. I like the replacement HP now showing up in Quebec, also like the overperforming cold all the way to the Gulf Coast, climo time of year, dynamic cooling and omega. 6-12 in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think based on models..and climo..and the colder than normal SST's I'd go 8-12 RAY to ORH to TOL to DXR 4-8 from HVN to IJD to BOS 3-6 Scooter to PVD to GON 2-4 rest of Se new Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's our forecast. I feel pretty good about this. It's a very reasonable layout, Ryan. My only critique would be to go dramatically lower right about there ... ...because it seems you forgot about the local climo studies wrt shadowing, as the flow comes down off the Tolland dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just saw a report where hurricane hunter aircraft will be flying tonight and tomorrow to get better sampling on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From NWS Boston Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am liking the call of 10-14 here still. Ultimately GFS is too warm and if we stay all snow then I think that range is reasonable... We're gonna ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think based on models..and climo..and the colder than normal SST's I'd go 8-12 RAY to ORH to TOL to DXR 4-8 from HVN to IJD to BOS 3-6 Scooter to PVD to GON 2-4 rest of Se new Eng good forecast imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Retreating ridge. The wiggle west may not be done. Beast to Sunday river jackpot with a fairly sharp drop to 2-4 in boston and less south and east. I will get an inch if I'm lucky. Torch will be unabated aloft in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We're gonna ping. Possibly, but if we do it will be short-lived. I think this comes in cooler than modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just saw a report where hurricane hunter aircraft will be flying tonight and tomorrow to get better sampling on this system. USAF plane is out and about as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 USAF plane is out and about as we speak. recon.png How does that get incorporated into models / forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah. There's good lift and snow growth for interior regions but the QPF isn't there. The forecasts I've been seeing are bullish for the interior. I'm with you in that 10"+ may not be quite what was advertised earlier...but it will all come down to the banding and CCB. This almost looks like a Tip favorite, the shredded radar look amongst an absolute firehose band. You are either in it or your not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How does that get incorporated into models / forecast? Somehow it's injected into the initial conditions for the models but I don't know the specifics. Somebody better versed in NWP and fluid dynamics could definitely tell you more, although I suspect it isn't the most riveting process! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Storm of the century it is not. DC will get 6-10. HGR otoh may do very well. My call: BOS: 3-6 BDL: 6-12 PVD: 3-6 LWM: 6-10 ORH: 8-14 EEN: 10-14 CON: 10-14 LEW: 12-16 PWM: 8-12 BTV: 14-18 I will mail you a 12-pack or wine of your choice if BTV gets 14-18" and comes in as the jackpot, haha. I think LEW/Cold Front can take this home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's our forecast. I feel pretty good about this.As usual, a completely reasonable forecast.I still think this will be a better "storm" than most of the others we've had this year. Just a whole mess of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think based on models..and climo..and the colder than normal SST's I'd go 8-12 RAY to ORH to TOL to DXR 4-8 from HVN to IJD to BOS 3-6 Scooter to PVD to GON 2-4 rest of Se new Eng Outside of 495- 6-12"...greatest amounts GC, N ORH hills, s NH/VT 128/495 Belt- 4-8" Inside of 128- 3-6". 2-5" se of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As usual, a completely reasonable forecast. I still think this will be a better "storm" than most of the others we've had this year. Just a whole mess of fun. This will be fun to watch unfold. Probably some surprises in store. I really like how things look for places like the Berkshires, S VT, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would be nice if you would issue forecast for the whole region 6-9 for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Box's map says it was updated at 5:45 but I can't tell any diffences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does this include the CCB/ backlash? CCB is west of you. I would say 6 front end and 3 inch backlash...total 9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GEFS have an omega bomb front end. I kind of like this feature. I think this will do well for a lot of people. On the other hand with the track the way it is, I think the Dryslot and mix come in with ease....but I think this thump will be big relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 at some of the maps I'm seeing posted on twitter...like this one with like 70 retweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys have no clue about the backlash..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GEFS have an omega bomb front end. I kind of like this feature. I think this will do well for a lot of people. On the other hand with the track the way it is, I think the Dryslot and mix come in with ease....but I think this thump will be big relatively speaking. Yeah it should be pretty big on the front...I'm still wondering if there is a narrow zone of pellets or even ZR around 495 or just northwest for a time after the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys have no clue about the backlash..lol. yeah, cause it looks like dogturds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys have no clue about the backlash..lol. Dec 2005 lite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's no way I get 10. 6-8'' and some ping. Maybe 10 N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.