SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow that's horrible. A little snow, washed away by a ton of rain. Towel has been thrown on a 6+ event here. Good luck to all up north I locked it in on yesterdays 12z's run of the Euro..and it has only gotten warmer since. Ya, maybe an inch here before a windswept deluge? Good for the ski places though. I'm kinda curious to see if the 18z RGEM is onto an even more inland solution before the hook ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SNE folks can hinge their hopes on covective feedback or the complexity of the system if they really want to go fishing for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the kicker gets any closer its phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 It looks like it's almost balls on the Euro run from 12z, but the Euro was slightly colder aloft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just completely ignore the ensembles being south and east and the HPC preferring a further east track. Also completely ignore the fact there has been convective feedback issues, and much complexity with the storm. So, I don't see how you are already completely writing off the storm and considering no further trends. Obviously, NNE and further north and west are favored but we could be pummeled too. It's still several model suites out. Worst case track over the Cape, Will didn't like on the 12z EURO. Between that, the GEM is the other toaster bath and no one even takes that model seriously. Our most respect mets like the ACK or near it track which is a fantastic snowstorm for us. I have news for you regarding the HPC....great organization, and they have a wealth of talent; however employing them as a means to revolt against a trend is in ill fated endeavor because they always lag behind trends. Now, they do this for a reason, but nevertheless... I wouldn't use them as an excuse to ignore blatant trends. Now its pretty much over. Today a complete trainwreck. Torch next week and were back to bare ground. Excitement is overwhelming. Make some space for me on the ledge Ray I am too quick on the b*tch trigger quite a bit, but I do happen to have a clue, and once again...school is in session, Jayson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love that it is much stronger now with the front-end omega if you like heavier snow. Its going to have a hard time flipping NW of 495 I think...maybe some sleet taint, but the low column is almost always going to be modeled too warm on that track. Please keep the overly emotional posts out of this thread as well...they'll be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love that it is much stronger now with the front-end omega if you like heavier snow. Its going to have a hard time flipping NW of 495 I think...maybe some sleet taint, but the low column is almost always going to be modeled too warm on that track. Please keep the overly emotional posts out of this thread as well...they'll be deleted. Yea, worst case here is 6", but the huge event is going by the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Relax folks ... not etched in stone yet. As I just said, this run is about identical to the Euro from 12z, but Euro was slightly colder off the deck... And about that, it really only gets briefly warm enough to flip people to IP/rain mix SE, before the column crashes like Amy Winehouse and it flashes over from NW SE -- still some snow (if that's your bag) to go through when that happens. Not a terrible run, actually. Would still be 4" or front in wallop in taunton, then matting, then another 2 to 3" of wind strewn flash freeze, as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Someone in N-central Mass over to Springfield and there abouts is going to get annihilated by a thundering meso band in this run. This definitely should bring some TSSN with it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, what an entertaining run of the GFS. Looks like a definite change to sleet in WNE and then we flip back to paste after 03z. This reminds me of 12-25-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All hail Raymond great futuristic model forecaster! Not only does he understand the models, but he sees them in the fuuuuture. Nah Pessimistic Ray was in effect lol No, it wasn't. I originally thought that the EURO was a little too amped, but once it remained steadfast, and in concert with its ens for 24 consecutive hours, then other globals started sway west once inside of 48 hours....sorry, a light bulb should have gone off. HPC is the last entity on Earth to react to such a trend...for good reason, but one must consider that. This is a s stream system...different ballgame from the first half of winter. We are still getting an appreciable net gain, but climo is tending to nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whoa what a shocker. Saving self from total toaster dump is knowing this is not what the outcome will be. I remember just a few years back the 06Z, 18Z runs would be taken with little weight. People take this as a slam dunk. It is NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love that it is much stronger now with the front-end omega if you like heavier snow. Its going to have a hard time flipping NW of 495 I think...maybe some sleet taint, but the low column is almost always going to be modeled too warm on that track. Please keep the overly emotional posts out of this thread as well...they'll be deleted. Would that also apply for N & W of I-84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can this be one of those deals where its wet in a local but snow to the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Relax folks ... not etched in stone yet. As I just said, this run is about identical to the Euro from 12z, but Euro was slightly colder off the deck... And about that, it really only gets briefly warm enough to flip people to IP/rain mix SE, before the column crashes like Amy Winehouse and it flashes over from NW SE -- still some snow (if that's your bag) to go through when that happens. Not a terrible run, actually. Would still be 4" or front in wallop in taunton, then matting, then another 2 to 3" of wind strewn flash freeze, as an example. I could see a tickle east betwn now and go-time, but I think we are honing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, what an entertaining run of the GFS. Looks like a definite change to sleet in WNE and then we flip back to paste after 03z. This reminds me of 12-25-02. Thunder snow with that one here. Loved that storm. 8" of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea, worst case here is 6", but the huge event is going by the boards. Even though the GFS came in with that warm 850 layer, I have a hard time believing I wash out. I'm thinking a period of sleet before back to heavy pounding aggregates. Not so much for inside 128, but outside 495 will be mostly snow. Battleground 128-495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love that it is much stronger now with the front-end omega if you like heavier snow. Its going to have a hard time flipping NW of 495 I think...maybe some sleet taint, but the low column is almost always going to be modeled too warm on that track. Please keep the overly emotional posts out of this thread as well...they'll be deleted. that's a tremendous backlash too. What an impressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can this be one of those deals where its wet in a local but snow to the SW? Sometimes that happens, sure... Now? I don't think so... Usually you need more a closed slower mover to pull that off. This is moving to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thunder snow with that one here. Loved that storm. 8" of paste. I can envision a relatively steep gradient around rt 128.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seeing the GFS jump that far west is good for us but also interesting. With the BS the 18z RGEM pulled tracking near BWI and cutting off early, I wonder what other changes are in store at 00z tonight. Watch the GGEM go batsh:t crazy and track a 970mb low to POU or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Even though the GFS came in with that warm 850 layer, I have a hard time believing I wash out. I'm thinking a period of sleet before back to heavy pounding aggregates. Not so much for inside 128, but outside 495 will be mostly snow. Battleground 128-495 Agree, wholeheartedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can envision a relatively steep gradient around rt 128.... I think there is a winter storm warning for the right side of you front yard, and chicks in two piece swim wear rubbing lotion over their bodies on the left. ...It's really that much gradient... incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking good for Greenfield. I'm leaning 8-10" here as currently modeled. Berkshire East will be epic Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can envision a relatively steep gradient around rt 128.... Me too. Hopefully that gradient sets up for Medford/Winchester and not Woburn/Burlington. I'm used to this though. Could crack either way...keeps it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How is the snow gradient drop off looking for PWM? I'm still seeing forecasts of mixed precip for this in Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Old school early 70s type of system. 6 inches followed by 37 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think there is a winter storm warning for the right side of you front yard, and chicks in two piece swim wear rubbing lotion over their bodies on the left. ...It's really that much gradient... incredible LolI had been thinking gradient would be more NW, but yours sounds strangely appealing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't see anyone getting more than 10" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't see anyone getting more than 10" out of this. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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