Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:08 PM, bobbutts said: Looking at the snow depth maps 12Z NAM for Fri AM: VS 18Z NAM Increases from NNJ-CT Valley and a nice extra bump for the MPM region. snow maps are not allowed offends the purists, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 8-10 by box sounds good for my area, maybe I can inch closer to the 10-14 if everything goes perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said: 14-18 seems rather bullish...even the 10-14 in CT.Tough to ignore the good trends today and the stinger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:12 PM, CoastalWx said: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Wish that had temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EC ens mean gets 1" of liquid up into C VT...looks overall juicier for NNE and a bit further NW with the mid level centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:08 PM, DFRI said: box perhaps a bit more enthuastic than gyx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:12 PM, weathafella said: Where are you? By Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:14 PM, dendrite said: EC ens mean gets 1" of liquid up into C VT...looks overall juicier for NNE and a bit further NW with the mid level centers. GFS ens looked nw of OP earlier if I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Tough to ignore the good trends today and the stinger Too much emphasis on this east of the Berks and Litchfield county CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:14 PM, sbos_wx said: Wish that had temps aloft. We have it here. H85 temps and 1000-850/850-700 critical thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NOT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY... Okay, some of the 4k NAM products on wxbell are now updated. 10-15" majority of interior with spot 20's in Middlesex hills and NW Ct. Regular ct valley shawdowing but still in the double digits. There are spots into the 20"+ range west of NYC in NJ and north of NYC in NY hudson valley. SNE winner might be Banned Chris in this run. Intense cape ann to Lawrence gradient in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:16 PM, CoastalWx said: Too much emphasis on this east of the Berks and Litchfield county CT. Isn't the euro the only one keeping it that far West? I mean it will obviously be more intense in W SNE but I feel like majority of other models have it traverse SNE as an ending shot of mod-possibly heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:12 PM, Ginxy said: snow maps are not allowed offends the purists, lol Posted to illustrate trend more than amts.. Clearly performs better in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:16 PM, CoastalWx said: Too much emphasis on this east of the Berks and Litchfield county CT. Only if you buy the Euro. tough to ignore every other set of guidance including mesos on that. Get that ULL under LI like that and it's gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't know what to think. 0.5F means 3" or 7" here. I don't like how the models are consistently mild here with temps, but I honestly think they are a hair too warm. At least for my area and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Only if you buy the Euro. tough to ignore every other set of guidance including mesos on that. Get that ULL under LI like that and it's gonna snow So we ride the euro for east tick, but toss it because it doesn't show backlash? Here we go again. As we have said...we need more of a tick east...then you can buy it. I already outlined why, earlier on my post with those graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 New SREFS are significantly wetter back west... maybe this will come together, lol. Regarding the SREFs, man check out this wall that'll move into SNE. 3 hour mean of 0.35-0.5" QPF over a very large area. That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:11 PM, Ginxy said: Man too bad you are not living in ORh for this one, classic ORH special, kind of Meh in Natick Oh I'll be in ORH for this,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:21 PM, sbos_wx said: Isn't the euro the only one keeping it that far West? I mean it will obviously be more intense in W SNE but I feel like majority of other models have it traverse SNE as an ending shot of mod-possibly heavy snow. Your 4k NAM looks pretty similar to the Euro. Follow the higher reflectivities. Front end thump pounds ENE and then the brunt of the deformation stays in far E NY and VT. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:28 PM, dendrite said: Your 4k NAM looks pretty similar to the Euro. Follow the higher reflectivities. Front end thump pounds ENE and then the brunt of the deformation stays in far E NY and VT. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html It added inches of snow on the back end. Did it not? On the phone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ((((d-_-<img data-cke-saved-src= said: )))" data-cid="2778134" data-time="1392239692">By Logan You may get more than you think. Maybe 6 before taint? Heckuva front ender coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:24 PM, powderfreak said: New SREFS are significantly wetter back west... maybe this will come together, lol. Regarding the SREFs, man check out this wall that'll move into SNE. 3 hour mean of 0.35-0.5" QPF over a very large area. That's impressive. Looking forward to blue flashes and seismic booms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:24 PM, powderfreak said: New SREFS are significantly wetter back west... maybe this will come together, lol. Regarding the SREFs, man check out this wall that'll move into SNE. 3 hour mean of 0.35-0.5" QPF over a very large area. That's impressive. LOL at the NMM members up until now. Trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:24 PM, CoastalWx said: So we ride the euro for east tick, but toss it because it doesn't show backlash? Here we go again. As we have said...we need more of a tick east...then you can buy it. I already outlined why, earlier on my post with those graphics. I just don't see how you take the Euro solution verbatim since every other set of guidance really hammers all of SNE. If you've noticed the Euro on the backlash aspect has actually been playing catchup to the others. Even as is the Euro would drop 1-3 in the lash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Could be one of those storms where we get 5 in Milton and Norwood gets like 8 or 9. Seems like a classic 128 dividing line storm. Very interesting storm to follow though. Also what kind of wind are we talking about east of the CF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 they are receiving 45 DBZ snow returns on rad in middle upstate NC -- that's what's likely going to pass through here, too during the front end part of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I just don't see how you take the Euro solution verbatim since every other set of guidance really hammers all of SNE. If you've noticed the Euro on the backlash aspect has actually been playing catchup to the others. Even as is the Euro would drop 1-3 in the lash 1-2" for you is different then the 4-6" your throwin out. Again GFS did not give you much in the backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like the 18Z GFS is going to slide the best front-end lift further east this run. Big hit with the mid-level deformation for the Berks and NH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:33 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Until BOX changes their snow map I am not really worried. They have been pretty on this year and I ultimately roll with their forecasts. They have certainly been right far more than wrong this year for W MA. I'm not sure where people are coming up with 2-3" for Springfield area. I guess anything is possible but I'm skeptical about screw job of that magnitude. For better or for worse, their maps have been pretty good for us. I'll take the current one and run. On 2/12/2014 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said: 14-18 seems rather bullish...even the 10-14 in CT. On 2/12/2014 at 9:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Oh I'll be in ORH for this,. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 9:38 PM, CoastalWx said: 1-2" for you is different then the 4-6" your throwin out. Again GFS did not give you much in the backlash. I didn't throw any numbers out..I will say i think it will be more than 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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