free_man Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 6:57 PM, SnowMan said: I think 12" is a lock for SNH...just a question if we can squeeze out a few more inches towards the end. What is your call? 8-12" for us seems reasonable, 3-10" BOS to ASH. If everything goes well, we could definitely get more and maybe quite a bit more, but I doubt it right now. Hope you're right. The "regionwide 12+" seems too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I will say the ECM has been ridiculously consistent for the past 2-3 days....outside of a few ticks colder or warmer here and there, the overall evolution has been extremely consistent. By far the most of any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 High expectations lead to heavy disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Please beware, I think these are a little out of range for their best use. These are wxbell graphics but were posted to public on twitter. Updated 12z 5-km NCEP MesoWRFs NMM: http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif ARW: http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_arw_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Both of those feature significant backlash for SNE. NMM is ferocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This thing is close to a real monster...gimme one more tick se and close off a hair later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more tick Will do the Trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:07 PM, powderfreak said: I will say the ECM has been ridiculously consistent for the past 2-3 days....outside of a few ticks colder or warmer here and there, the overall evolution has been extremely consistent. By far the most of any model. Nam has been right there too...i know i know, but give credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 6:52 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kev, let go of the CBB notion, will you.... On 2/12/2014 at 6:53 PM, coldfront said: Some just can't its not strictly CCB he is talking about its backlash and what Will referred to, its real and modeled, will it happen no one knows but to ignore its existence is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:08 PM, coldfront said: High expectations lead to heavy disappointment But heavy jubilation when it doesnt. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll stick with the Euro for my "backlash forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:10 PM, Ginxy said: its not CCB he is talking about its backlash and what Will referred to, its real and modeled, will it happen no one knows but to ignore its existence is not good. Majority of models shows it one way or another. Euro does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How badly did the EURO "Charlie Brown" the DC crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I still like 1-2' spots nw of 84 in ct, esp litchfield county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:09 PM, cpick79 said: This thing is close to a real monster...gimme one more tick se and close off a hair later so much for your ten days of boring pickles, hope you get smoked at WAWA , should be a blast, sugar powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Steve, no one is ignoring it, but expecting it to vault you to near a foot is unwise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:11 PM, CT Rain said: I'll stick with the Euro for my "backlash forecast" Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well that is a nice euro run. Makes it interesting or me anyway. Probably like ~6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Steve, no one is ignoring it, but expecting it to vault you to near a foot is unwise imo. I just want to see it , a 2-3 inch backlash is cool with me, although euro is not as aggressive it still does not shut off completely either, also be aware of 5H be very aware, surprise surprise surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am counting on the front end and thinking 7-9, with slight taint, although last storm we seemed to have a hard time transitioning to a mix and stayed mostly snow, this time maybe more FR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:11 PM, CT Rain said: I'll stick with the Euro for my "backlash forecast" How much adjustment to your map, if you are going 100% euro, you need to up the SE coast a tad it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro really like eastern Mass and the NH Seacoast for tomorrow's thump. Relatively little QPF over CT/W Mass with eastern areas cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:17 PM, Modfan said: I am counting on the front end and thinking 7-9, with slight taint, although last storm we seemed to have a hard time transitioning to a mix and stayed mostly snow, this time maybe more FR. sounds right to me except maybe sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:18 PM, Ginxy said: How much adjustment to your map, if you are going 100% euro, you need to up the SE coast a tad it seems Maybe 3-5, 5-9, 9-14? The Euro is not particularly impressive in CT. Seems like we miss out on the good stuff during the day tomorrow and then again tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Steve, no one is ignoring it, but expecting it to vault you to near a foot is unwise imo. I'd say only one person said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:05 PM, Typhoon Tip said: OH I'd say this is more than a mere tick colder... I'm looking at this chart below and thinking someone ...circa BED to ORH is getting a blizzard condition, at least for a short time. John, don't use the B word unless it applies to GC, How bad is the EC with the front-end out west? Comments here seem to really be hitting the notion of the east being the place for it. I'd rather bank on front end than backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 2 things... 1 no Euro snow maps are allowed. 2nd... those snow maps also count ZR and PL as snow. They're basically worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:18 PM, CT Rain said: Both the GFS and Euro really like eastern Mass and the NH Seacoast for tomorrow's lthump. Relatively little QPF over CT/W Mass with eastern areas cashing in.so now not much of a thump at all back here and no ccb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:20 PM, CT Rain said: Maybe 3-5, 5-9, 9-14? The Euro is not particularly impressive in CT. Seems like we miss out on the good stuff during the day tomorrow and then again tomorrow night. euro QPF looks suspect to me but .75 to 1.25 across the state is nice, sticking with my call 6-12 SE to N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 7:24 PM, codfishsnowman said: so now not much of a thump at all back here and no ccb? No thump back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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