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East Coast winter storm, February 13th-14th, imminent (Part II)


Typhoon Tip

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so for up here basically we are locked and loaded at this point.  Now we can just watch.  The usual nail biting on dryslots, bands, subsidence.  At least for those in the far interior.  Still many nails to be chewed and weenies to be sprung and deflated to my south and east.

 

all models over 1" up here, some close to 2.  Consistent signal for 4 days.  I say 10-18 n of the ma/nh border.  Lollies to 24 in some spots.  Don't see that as bold given the consistent qpf, the potential high rations in ccb/deform, and the potential for an overperforming front end.

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  On 2/12/2014 at 6:06 PM, mahk_webstah said:

so for up here basically we are locked and loaded at this point. Now we can just watch. The usual nail biting on dryslots, bands, subsidence. At least for those in the far interior. Still many nails to be chewed and weenies to be sprung and deflated to my south and east.

all models over 1" up here, some close to 2. Consistent signal for 4 days. I say 10-18 n of the ma/nh border. Lollies to 24 in some spots. Don't see that as bold given the consistent qpf, the potential high rations in ccb/deform, and the potential for an overperforming front end.

8-12" for us.
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  On 2/12/2014 at 6:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

The one thing to watch perhaps is the front end maybe almost favoring ern areas. This isn't an IMBY post, but some models have been hunting at that.

Anyways backlash is more ern NY Kevin.

 

 

Yes it does...the strongest ML frontogensis on the front end is in eastern areas. the LLJ really tries to crank up into RI/E MA.

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  On 2/12/2014 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it does...the strongest ML frontogensis on the front end is in eastern areas. the LLJ really tries to crank up into RI/E MA.

Every model has it. Obviously temps on the coast become an issue eventually, but that's why areas near and especially NW of BOS could do real well.

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  On 2/12/2014 at 6:11 PM, bobbutts said:

I'm probably going down in flames with Mahk too.. I like this system for overperforming in CNH

Best WAA may be east of us. Ratios probably won't be that great on the front end. The good ratios will be in the deform zone that will rot over E NY and VT. Then we may even have a slight downslope with the N-NE flow.
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  On 2/12/2014 at 6:11 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said:

We really should not complain about this run. Many peeps prob thought it would run up the ct river lol. The fact its colder and se a tick or two, great to see imo.

Agreed.

 

As long as folks have let go of the KU type deal, this is a very solid event.

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  On 2/12/2014 at 6:15 PM, dendrite said:

Best WAA may be east of us. Ratios probably won't be that great on the front end. The good ratios will be in the deform zone that will rot over E NY and VT. Then we may even have a slight downslope with the N-NE flow.

I know nne winds can be bad for us.  front end goodies will be east of us though?  wow that would suck.  we get no deform or stinger?  is this euro or other models as well?  this must be why gyx map yesterday had merrimack 8-10 but just ese of us was 10-14.

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