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East Coast winter storm, February 13th-14th, imminent (Part II)


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/11/2014 at 10:39 PM, weathafella said:

Storm of the century it is not. DC will get 6-10. HGR otoh may do very well.

 

My call:

 

BOS: 3-6

BDL: 6-12

PVD: 3-6

LWM: 6-10

ORH: 8-14

EEN: 10-14

CON: 10-14

LEW: 12-16

PWM: 8-12

BTV: 14-18

 

Thanks Jerry, It would be rare for me to Jac here

 

  On 2/11/2014 at 11:08 PM, powderfreak said:

I will mail you a 12-pack or wine of your choice if BTV gets 14-18" and comes in as the jackpot, haha.

I think LEW/Cold Front can take this home.

 

I like 8-12" with some IP as it looks right now, That's what i am going with pending and last minute tics, Hopefully SE

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  On 2/11/2014 at 11:26 PM, bobbutts said:

18z GFS clown map

CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_69HR.gif

Nice battleground in my area, 6" in eastern Merrimack county and 20" in west. Screwzones NE Kingdom and BTV

That would be screwzone Boston.

Any chance if this goes further west, so does the follow up kicker that the GFS blows up offshore?

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  On 2/11/2014 at 11:28 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said:

peeps always so concerned about numbers. imo, impact is more important.... monday am and pm commute is mangled in ct, with the taint/rain/dry slot sandwiched in between.

Would have to imagine any rain will flash freeze after temps crash back down.
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  On 2/11/2014 at 11:26 PM, bobbutts said:

18z GFS clown map

CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_69HR.gif

Nice battleground in my area, 6" in eastern Merrimack county and 20" in west. Screwzones NE Kingdom and BTV

It will be hard for us to be a screw zone considering most models yesterday had us with no measurable snow outside the ECM. Anything over 1-3" would be a big win for this event up here IMO.

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I have a funny feeling that the 00z suite will have a completely new look resulting in forecast and map rewrites galore.

 

Or, maybe I'm just thinking of that as being a funny thing.

 

One thing I'll say is that there seems to be good collaboration between the NWS offices in NY/NE with respect to this. 

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  On 2/11/2014 at 11:27 PM, weathafella said:

Scooters bullish on an over performing front ender. Pay attention.

 

I should stress that my confidence is better for Ray-ORH-TOL...etc. I'm not suggesting 12-18"...but I am suggesting this is the main slug of precip. You and I will really need some strong lift. For us, we flirt with 32F and it's something where if we really have a wall of S+..we hover like 31.5-32.0F or something like that. If it's not really on concise band of S+...I could see us going to a very tough accumulating 33-34F snow. Know what I mean? For Ray and those areas..temps will be in the 20s to start so no problem accumulating there. I guess what I mean is that the first 6-9hrs could really pound hard..especially inland...and then the dryslot could shut things off..or we go to a bit of a mix like Will mentioned. Backlash stuff to be determined. That will not be easy to nail down at this stage. JMHO.

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  On 2/11/2014 at 11:45 PM, New Englander said:

Thursday morning commute going to be a nightmare.

Thumper of heavy snow requiring plows for the morning, transitions to torrential rains for eastern areas, It'll be messy. Harv was mentioning he thinks there'll be an area where waterlogged snow gets hit hard by the wind resulting in widespread outages Thursday night, said perhaps around i95 iirc.

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  On 2/11/2014 at 11:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Outside of 495- 6-12"...greatest amounts GC, N ORH hills, s NH/VT

128/495 Belt- 4-8"

Inside of 128- 3-6".

2-5" se of Boston.

 

Not sure why, but I'm feeling this one:

Worcester Hills, Monad's, S Vt, Central NH Western Whites: 12-18, lollies to 24

NW 495 to the above: 8-14

128-495: 4-8

inside 128: 2-5

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