Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:25 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Looking good for Greenfield. I'm leaning 8-10" here as currently modeled. Berkshire East will be epic Friday. leaning being there, making arrangements right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will preface this with the caveat that this is still a nice event just inland here in sne, but this epitomizes why I'd rather a mIller B. 1) More room to take an unfavorable track. 2) More time to occlude early. Glad we have a storm, but these are the risks we run with a system born of the s stream. I know that Steven will have plenty to say, but best case imo is when we have a Miller B with some moisture influx from the south, such as the blizzard last year. These deals that get fully locked and loaded that far south are risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:27 PM, weathafella said: Old school early 70s type of system. 6 inches followed by 37 rain. I think the front end is going to be a huge paste job for some..esp BOS and just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:27 PM, cdgraves said: How is the snow gradient drop off looking for PWM? I'm still seeing forecasts of mixed precip for this in Portland Going to be dicey for us, I think. I'm hoping that we're saved by dynamic cooling (one of the all-time weenie standbys) and the cold SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can envision a relatively steep gradient around rt 128.... This reminds me of VDay when I while Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There is definitely going to be a warm tongue in CT so Kevin may get close to 32, but for the most part I bet you can bet that Ray-Kevin and points NW are below 32. Maybe Ray gets to 33 for a few hours or something. It may not be a doozy like some models had, but a good front ender for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ray could get 6-8 of backlash alone in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Sometimes that happens, sure... Now? I don't think so... Usually you need more a closed slower mover to pull that off. This is moving to fast. Thanks Tip. Just looked like it when it goes severly neg at BOS latitude. Maybe the change back to snow from sleet is more sw to ne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:31 PM, CoastalWx said: There is definitely going to be a warm tongue in CT so Kevin may get close to 32, but for the most part I bet you can bet that Ray-Kevin and points NW are below 32. Maybe Ray gets to 33 for a few hours or something. It may not be a doozy like some models had, but a good front ender for the interior.Any chance of squeezing a call out of you?Maybe to climo sites? My thoughts ORH 8-11 PVD. 3-5 BDL. 4-6 BOS. 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Couple of the local stations snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:32 PM, Ginxy said: Ray could get 6-8 of backlash alone in that setup. I think we could get 2-4 or 3-6 from that depending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:29 PM, CoastalWx said: I think the front end is going to be a huge paste job for some..esp BOS and just inland. If the GFS verified I would think even out towards ORH it would be 8" of paste, then maybe brief sleet/34F drizzle. edit: I'm more referring to lower elevations E of ORH. I doubt ORH itself gets above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:35 PM, weatherMA said: If the GFS verified I would think even out towards ORH it would be 8" of paste, then maybe brief sleet/34F drizzle. I am liking the call of 10-14 here still. Ultimately GFS is too warm and if we stay all snow then I think that range is reasonable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:29 PM, SnowMan said: Seriously? Yeah. There's good lift and snow growth for interior regions but the QPF isn't there. The forecasts I've been seeing are bullish for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:33 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Any chance of squeezing a call out of you? Maybe to climo sites? My thoughts ORH 8-11 PVD. 3-5 BDL. 4-6 BOS. 4-6 I'll have some thoughts after I take care of a few things. Gotta feed the weenie in training. Decent numbers I think except maybe like 6-9 at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:32 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: Thanks Tip. Just looked like it when it goes severly neg at BOS latitude. Maybe the change back to snow from sleet is more sw to ne? nah, still has the look to me of a mix line punching NW, then collapsing rapidly SE when the core of the heights rides over and the winds back aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:37 PM, It said: Yeah. There's good lift and snow growth for interior regions but the QPF isn't there. On which model? The GFS had at least 1.5 qpf for here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I think we could get 2-4 or 3-6 from that dependingyep you know our ULL climo rule too. I still like this storm. Tomorrow is the key, all systems well sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:37 PM, SnowMan said: On which model? The QPF had at least 1.5 qpf for here...Huh? Missed that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Storm of the century it is not. DC will get 6-10. HGR otoh may do very well. My call: BOS: 3-6 BDL: 6-12 PVD: 3-6 LWM: 6-10 ORH: 8-14 EEN: 10-14 CON: 10-14 LEW: 12-16 PWM: 8-12 BTV: 14-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Someone in N-central Mass over to Springfield and there abouts is going to get annihilated by a thundering meso band in this run. This definitely should bring some TSSN with it.. I'm ~8 miles NE of Springfield. Don't get me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:37 PM, SnowMan said: On which model? The GFS had at least 1.5 qpf for here... Where is that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:38 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Huh? Missed that model LOL...I meant the GFS...nice catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:37 PM, It said: Yeah. There's good lift and snow growth for interior regions but the QPF isn't there. The forecasts I've been seeing are bullish for the interior. You don't think 1" of qpf modeled (even as much as 1.5 on gfs) would give 15+ in some areas in lucky bands? I agree 10+ won't be common but to say NO totals higher then 10" seems a bit extreme IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Usually good lift in the DGZ and a lack of QPF is a red flag for more snow. If that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:39 PM, It said: Where is that for? Southern NH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Would that also apply for N & W of I-84? More or less..it will prob go to rain there..and perhaps to ORh, but it wouldn't last too long I don't think. There could even be a thin area of marginal icing. My gut tells me though that if the mid-level centers track where they are progged to track, that this will end up a bit colder as we get closer. A lot of these coastal huggers like 12/25/02, 1/3/03, 1/12/96, etc have a very difficult time actually being all rain in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's our forecast. I feel pretty good about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:39 PM, weatherMA said: You don't think 1" of qpf modeled (even as much as 1.5 on gfs) would give 15+ in some areas in lucky bands? I agree 10+ won't be common but to say NO totals higher then 10" seems a bit extreme IMO. I wouldn't call my statement extreme...okay so somebody gets 11-12" after good banding, cool, but to say widespread 10-14" is what I consider extreme. 8-10" with isolated 11-12 is more appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:30 PM, PWMan said: Going to be dicey for us, I think. I'm hoping that we're saved by dynamic cooling (one of the all-time weenie standbys) and the cold SSTs. I suspect it wont be until tomorrow night until we might have a better indication of whether or not we deal with mixing issues. I think we (Coastal Cumberland County) happen to be in a spot where a very minor shift in track could make a huge difference in our snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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