mappy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I deleted after I saw it all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1" of snow or 1" of QPF. FWIW, here's what John Collins (formerly at WBAL) posted RE: RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Blacksburg throwing up warnings for up to 6-12 for their eastern sections. Higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, March 6 last year quickly comes to mind. If rates slow even a little w/ such marginal temps then...... being 3 weeks ahead will help a lot...if March 6th happened on February 12th it likely would have had good snows into the city...4-6"...and much more to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 February 1983 analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1" of snow or 1" of QPF. I hope someone answers this with something other than a map. Cant see images at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ***ALERT ALERT, 8-12" forecast for RIC may be in trouble for RIC if you consider the 12Z GFS, CMC, and 00-06Z parallel NAM *** Kidding aside, I think we need to step back and again consider climo. Folks n-nw-w of I95/the fall line are going to make out best here. I don't care what the model qpfs are showing...you just know by the forecast track and the fact that those areas will have the colder BL temps nad higher ratios (better chance of hanging under the pivoting CCB/deformation axis). It's just the way it goes most of the time. That's not to say we I95ers and points east to the Bay can't make out on a decent event here. What would make this an "overperformer" for us is IF we can get appreciable accum following any mixing and/or lull in the pcpn with a dry slot...i.e. with the mid levels cutting off and a shapening/elongating/longer lasting deformation band. IMBY, that will make all the difference in an event that goes from 6 to maybe 8 vs. 8-12". Again, our best events along/east of I95 are obviously not just front-side loaded. Started laughing out loud in class.Interesting to see the nam and Canadian heading down a little different path compared to the last few days when they were similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, March 6 last year quickly comes to mind. If rates slow even a little w/ such marginal temps then...... airmass is a good bit better going in and it comes in earlier so we aren't racing against sunrise. thursday could be shot accumwise though depending on solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Blacksburg throwing up warnings for up to 6-12 for their eastern sections. Higher amounts possible. That was issued at like 630 this morning from RNK... 6-12 in the Piedmont regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 But the ratios make no sense. I beleive others have said to ignore that Bufkit output. For instance, the ratios between 1200 and 1500z are > 22, which is not possible around here in a southern stream system (and probably not even for a cold NS system). I see it also outputs a 12:1 ratio at 1100Z when sleet is falling (at least I think that is what SNPL is). Ignore the ratio's. Look at the QPF. It's over and inch all snow. Big time snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 being 3 weeks ahead will help a lot...if March 6th happened on February 12th it likely would have had good snows into the city...4-6"...and much more to the west That's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12 GEFS Mean is west of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah the RPM is a disaster. Let's not have a March 2013 all over again I don't think so though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 is RPM accurate? It always seems low on snow so i guess it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
va_ghost Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Started laughing out loud in class. Interesting to see the nam and Canadian heading down a little different path compared to the last few days when they were similar. Utter newbie here so I did not get the humor. But with the models showing more warmth is this turning into a rain event for RIC area in VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12 GEFS Mean is west of the OP eh...forget it...they end up looking similar... 0.65" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5speed6 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope someone answers this with something other than a map. Cant see images at work. Referring to snow totals, not liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, March 6 last year quickly comes to mind. If rates slow even a little w/ such marginal temps then......During Sundays mini event (1"), snow started sticking immediately IMBY even with lighter rates. Yeah, once we got into mod snow it stuck easier, but it still stuck throughout, and temps werent super cold. I'm not saying light rates wouldn't be an issue, but every day makes a difference--there's a relatively big difference between February 13th and March 6th when it comes to sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 eh...forget it...they end up looking similar... 0.65" for DCA How much of that is by 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 is RPM accurate? It always seems low on snow so i guess it is Nailed March 2013. Nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 During Sundays mini event (1"), snow started sticking immediately IMBY even with lighter rates. Yeah, once we got into mod snow it stuck easier, but it still stuck throughout, and temps werent super cold. I'm not saying light rates wouldn't be an issue, but every day makes a difference--there's a relatively big difference between February 13th and March 6th when it comes to sun angle. Matt is right. 3 weeks of sun angle at this time of year is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How much of that is by 12z? 0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM and Ukie look fine. CMC, who really cares, it still is not a great model. WPC gave it zero weight yesterday. GFS we need to come around, but it may take till 12z tomorrow before it does. 12z Euro is a big run now..need it to hold and not show any movement towards west/weaker/warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You can only say a model has been terrible only when you know the eventual outcome. Easily, you could come back in two days and change terrible to correct. We may have to wait until 00Z...and then maybe this thing is so walking the tightrope as Bob said, that consensus will be weak right up until nowcasting time. There is no way to know. All you can do is stay tuned and look for what makes sense. You can only say a model has been terrible only when you know the eventual outcome. Easily, you could come back in two days and change terrible to correct. We may have to wait until 00Z...and then maybe this thing is so walking the tightrope as Bob said, that consensus will be weak right up until nowcasting time. There is no way to know. All you can do is stay tuned and look for what makes sense. the way I see this is that every model is hitting us hard except the GFS. And the GFS is slowly coming around. Unless the Euro caves in this afternoon my guess is that the GFS will continue to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One thing is for certain, it's frigid out there. Colder ground temps and reduced February insolation should prevent another March 6th if we can achieve a 2-4" foundation by sunrise, imo. I've found that snow accumulates well on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm not one for being overly-dramatic, but one could argue that the 12Z EC could be the biggest run of the season. Or not. Or the 00Z run. We still have time for positive trends, with the event still 30+ hours away. But, we are running out of time, especially since more and more current observed data upstteam is getting sampled. Really curious to see what the Euro has to say with all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0.3" Ugh. Blend the GFS with the NAM/RGEM/UKMET/Euro and you have a 5-6" snowstorm with some mess during the day on Thursday. Not bad, but we were all teased by the prospect of more. The RPM doesn't make any sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One thing is for certain, it's frigid out there. Colder ground temps and reduced February insolation should prevent another March 6th if we can achieve a 2-4" foundation by sunrise, imo. I've found that snow accumulates well on snow. Rates overcome isolation. That, and it has to actually be snow, not sleet falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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