February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[wxmeddler]

CMC  - 983 off OC, mix line DC/Westminster/Lancaster/Trenton/NYC

[wxmeddler]

CMC:

[Ji]

so NAM is cold and snowy except for me

Euro is cold and snowy

Ukmet is cold and snow

GFS is warm and flurries

RGEM is warm and mixy

GGEM is a bit warmer but still snowy

[Ji]

CMC:

where is the precip?

[va_ghost]

How far nw? Can't check anything right now.

I was commenting on the Canadian that someone posted a picture of - see above.. lots o' green

[Ji]

GGEM is nearly back at its 964 from sunday

[clskinsfan]

12Z NAM for DCA:

 

140213/0300Z 39 04007KT 26.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
140213/0400Z 40 03009KT 25.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 13:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
140213/0500Z 41 02011KT 25.4F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 15:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0
140213/0600Z 42 02011KT 25.2F SNOW 16:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 15:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/0700Z 43 02009KT 25.4F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 16:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
140213/0800Z 44 01011KT 25.8F SNOW 13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 15:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
140213/0900Z 45 36011KT 26.3F SNOW 15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105 15:1| 9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62 100| 0| 0
140213/1000Z 46 01013KT 26.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 14:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70 100| 0| 0
140213/1100Z 47 35014KT 27.4F SNPL 12:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.043 14:1| 10.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.74 77| 23| 0
140213/1200Z 48 33014KT 27.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 14:1| 10.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1300Z 49 35013KT 26.9F SNOW 23:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 15:1| 12.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0
140213/1400Z 50 34012KT 26.7F SNOW 23:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 15:1| 13.7|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.90 100| 0| 0
140213/1500Z 51 34012KT 27.0F SNOW 18:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 15:1| 15.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.97 100| 0| 0
140213/1600Z 52 33012KT 27.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 15:1| 15.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0
140213/1700Z 53 32013KT 29.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 15:1| 16.6|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0
140213/1800Z 54 32013KT 30.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 15:1| 16.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1900Z 55 32013KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 15:1| 16.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.14 100| 0| 0

[yoda]

where is the precip?

 

Thats 6pm Friday silly, come on now

[Deck Pic]

UKmet 48 hours..closed

 

[Ian]

where is the precip?

thankfully he skipped the rain panels IMBY 

[WxMan1]

How far nw? Can't check anything right now.

***ALERT ALERT, 8-12" forecast for RIC may be in trouble for RIC if you consider the 12Z GFS, CMC, and 00-06Z parallel NAM ***

Kidding aside, I think we need to step back and again consider climo. Folks n-nw-w of I95/the fall line are going to make out best here. I don't care what the model qpfs are showing...you just know by the forecast track and the fact that those areas will have the colder BL temps nad higher ratios (better chance of hanging under the pivoting CCB/deformation axis). It's just the way it goes most of the time.

That's not to say we I95ers and points east to the Bay can't make out on a decent event here. What would make this an "overperformer" for us is IF we can get appreciable accum following any mixing and/or lull in the pcpn with a dry slot...i.e. with the mid levels cutting off and a shapening/elongating/longer lasting deformation band.

IMBY, that will make all the difference in an event that goes from 6 to maybe 8 vs. 8-12". Again, our best events along/east of I95 are obviously not just front-side loaded.

[Bari]

Looking at at the NAM's skew-T at 45h, looks like good convective uplift good for thunder snow for DC, Good DGZ ftw, i'm happy with just the possibility.

[dtk]

I believe HPC cited that as a reason for the differing solutions

I doubt it, and if they did they are probably wrong (or at least have ZERO supporting evidence to make such a claim).  Also, the GFS does not use 3DVAR, it uses a hybrid EnKF-3D EnVar solver now.  It will be going to (hybrid) 4D EnVar next year.

 

The GFS may not be correct in the end, but it is WAY too overly simplistic to simply blame the DA/initialization for differences in the integrations.

[Joshfsu123]

Saw someone post (on twitter) that RGEM was mixy but still had 6-10/8-12 snow before it got mixy for the area... that's still really good if true. I don't know where to check to see if accurate, but someone more knowledgeable than I am probably knows for sure.

[joc111]

12Z NAM for DCA:

 

140213/0300Z 39 04007KT 26.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

140213/0400Z 40 03009KT 25.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 13:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0

140213/0500Z 41 02011KT 25.4F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 15:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

140213/0600Z 42 02011KT 25.2F SNOW 16:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 15:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/0700Z 43 02009KT 25.4F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 16:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0

140213/0800Z 44 01011KT 25.8F SNOW 13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 15:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0

140213/0900Z 45 36011KT 26.3F SNOW 15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105 15:1| 9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62 100| 0| 0

140213/1000Z 46 01013KT 26.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 14:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70 100| 0| 0

140213/1100Z 47 35014KT 27.4F SNPL 12:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.043 14:1| 10.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.74 77| 23| 0

140213/1200Z 48 33014KT 27.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 14:1| 10.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1300Z 49 35013KT 26.9F SNOW 23:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 15:1| 12.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0

140213/1400Z 50 34012KT 26.7F SNOW 23:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 15:1| 13.7|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.90 100| 0| 0

140213/1500Z 51 34012KT 27.0F SNOW 18:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 15:1| 15.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.97 100| 0| 0

140213/1600Z 52 33012KT 27.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 15:1| 15.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0

140213/1700Z 53 32013KT 29.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 15:1| 16.6|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0

140213/1800Z 54 32013KT 30.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 15:1| 16.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1900Z 55 32013KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 15:1| 16.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.14 100| 0| 0

 

16.9"

 

Snickering at some of those ratios, though.

[Huffwx]

Anyone have GGEm at 48? Ive seen later ... I still can't get 48 on their site. 

[litigator01]

16.9"

 

17:1? 22:1?  23:1?!  

 

C'mon, now.

[mappy]

16.9"

 

Snickering at some of those ratios, though.

 

Never ever take those ratios seriously. ONLY look at the qpf the output gives

[Ji]

16.9"

 

Snickering at some of those ratios, though.

someone should ban these. They are worse than weatherbell

[anotherman]

[WinterWxLuvr]

I know many will disagree violently, but its no fun to get a big snow that starts melting at 8:30 in the morning.  I'd much rather have less snow and more cold.

[jums300]

Should the RPM be taken seriously?  News just posted it.  Shows about an 1" for the whole area.

[joc111]

Never ever take those ratios seriously. ONLY look at the qpf the output gives

 

... which is why I'm snickering at them.

[mappy]

hmmm, and that's with a 7:1 ratio.  Not bad

 

lolz no its not, the 16.9 is the total... some of those ratios are 23:1

[stormtracker]

lolz no its not, the 16.9 is the total... some of those ratios are 23:1

I deleted after I saw it

[Ian]

I know many will disagree violently, but its no fun to get a big snow that starts melting at 8:30 in the morning.  I'd much rather have less snow and more cold.

Sorry.. sun angle season. Enjoy your dripping. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

16.9"

But the ratios make no sense.  I beleive others have said to ignore that Bufkit output.  For instance, the ratios between 1200 and 1500z are > 22, which is not possible around here in a southern stream system (and probably not even for a cold NS system).  I see it also outputs a 12:1 ratio at 1100Z when sleet is falling (at least I think that is what SNPL is).

[TerpWeather]

that just looks choppy for a storm of that strength. Something doesn't seem right there

[stormtracker]

Should the RPM be taken seriously?  News just posted it.  Shows about an 1" for the whole area.

1" of snow or 1" of QPF.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I know many will disagree violently, but its no fun to get a big snow that starts melting at 8:30 in the morning.  I'd much rather have less snow and more cold.

Yeah, March 6 last year quickly comes to mind.  If rates slow even a little w/ such marginal temps then......