February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[asidle]

Do the models take into account the colder than normal Atlantic Ocean temps?  This may help keep this all snow for i-95.  I'm a newbie so just a thought.

[yoda]

12z UKIE 850s 60

 

[Bob Chill]

looks like this could easily be a bust

 

It's getting hard to ignore the gfs less amped and drier solution isn't it. It's been bugging me like heck for days now. The 12z run was so close though. It closed off @ 45 and wasn't ragged. The ns vort had a nice backside dig into the trough. It's a damn tightrope. Even if the euro plasters us again the risks are on the table for sure. 

[Ian]

Do the models take into account the colder than normal Atlantic Ocean temps?  This may help keep this all snow for i-95.  I'm a newbie so just a thought.

Any issues aren't necessarily right at the sfc .. I don't think it matters tho you won't warm up as much as usual right on the water perhaps. GFS temps on Thursday aren't horrible.. but the rates suck. 

[stormtracker]

Well, at least the UKMET looks ok still

[WxUSAF]

Ukie looks just fine.  

 

I'd be worried about the warmth of the RGEM and GFS…but NAM went the other direction and got colder than it's previous runs.  

[Deck Pic]

It's getting hard to ignore the gfs less amped and drier solution isn't it. It's been bugging me like heck for days now. The 12z run was so close though. It closed off @ 45 and wasn't ragged. The ns vort had a nice backside dig into the trough. It's a damn tightrope. Even if the euro plasters us again the risks are on the table for sure. 

 

Hopefully it all falls apart today and not at gametime

[JMU2004]

No need to do a weenie swan dive.

 

Ukie looks fine to my eyes.

[Derecho!]

I think they already chimed in that changes won't be because of "better sampling."

 

I'm a data analyst by day so I'm never going to argue more data isn't better than less data. That said, I'd love some examples of when better sampling had a huge impact.  I'm sure it's happened at least once or twice.. but usually there are no differences a regular viewer could tell apart from closing in.  

 

 

Anecdotally I've been unimpressed by the first runs incorporating data from the NOAA Gulfstream flights (which people make a big deal of) for tropical - most times it seems the models don't change and when they've changed radically they have been more wrong a few times.

[chris87]

Ukie looks just fine.  

 

I'd be worried about the warmth of the RGEM and GFS…but NAM went the other direction and got colder than it's previous runs.  

 

and the gfs precip rates aren't doing its low-level thermals any favors during a daytime event

[yoda]

12z UKIE says hold the line b*tches... hold the damn line

 

 

 

[va_ghost]

Any issues aren't necessarily right at the sfc .. I don't think it matters tho you won't warm up as much as usual right on the water perhaps. GFS temps on Thursday aren't horrible.. but the rates suck. 

 

Perhaps he, like me, are looking at recent pictures posted and seeing a whole lot of green and pinks and not an all snow event. Central VA here.. used to disappointing R/S line.

[WxMan1]

Yeah, works for me too in northern AA. On the cusp of the max pcpn axis, yet hopefully all/mostly snow. Certain heavier, wetter snow compared to west of I95, but because of the thermal profiles, I gotta stick with climo in that the max snowfall will probably be above the fall line, even if near it, despite what the NAM QPF is saying. Probably better dendritic snow growth over that way, along with the colder BL temps, thus higher than 10-1 snow-water ratios likely..

Looks like about 1.4 for BWI. Works for me even with 8:1 ratios

Sent from my XT907

[stormtracker]

It's getting hard to ignore the gfs less amped and drier solution isn't it. It's been bugging me like heck for days now. The 12z run was so close though. It closed off @ 45 and wasn't ragged. The ns vort had a nice backside dig into the trough. It's a damn tightrope. Even if the euro plasters us again the risks are on the table for sure. 

Stay the course.   So far, globals look fine (except, notably, the GFS....but I mean, it has been pretty terrible so far).   We're always at risk in this area.   If the euro looks warm/dry, then there's a cause for concern.

[Interstate]

so 36 hours or so until the start and we are no closer to a model solution... maybe even further apart... It is going to be a long night waiting for the 0z suite... if the CMC and Euro hold.

[stormtracker]

The ukmet isn't worth anything. Always last to get on the bus.

Except it's been lock step with the Euro.  And it's a decent model.  Other than that, you're right.

[Ji]

UKIE and EURO holding hands together on big ticket item is something that you want to see.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Here's a positive thought to counteract all the negative stuff, 29 degrees here now, this air mass

doesn't suck and whatever falls at night during the first thump (even on the gfs) will stick. Even with the weaker solution most of us would wake up to snow cover on Thursday.

[Ji]

with that being said..GFS was warm on the storm last week and it was right:(

[Ji]

Here's a positive thought to counteract all the negative stuff, 29 degrees here now, this air mass

doesn't suck and whatever falls at night during the first thump (even on the gfs) will stick. Even with the weaker solution most of us would wake up to snow cover on Thursday.

thats the goal now? Snow cover?

[yoda]

72 12z UKIE QPF map

 

[Bob Chill]

Stay the course.   So far, globals look fine (except, notably, the GFS....but I mean, it has been pretty terrible so far).   We're always at risk in this area.   If the euro looks warm/dry, then there's a cause for concern.

 

Oh, I'm definitely in. GFS was right on the cusp of the proverbial bowling ball. It stepped towards the euro with the close off and location but didn't hold it together. I do think the gfs run is quite plausible though. Maybe too dry given the upper levels and moisture rich system. But without a close the deform won't have the juice for a big one. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

thats the goal now? Snow cover?

Lol, in dc I think some decent snow cover (4+ inches) is a reasonable goal

[WxMan1]

Agreed. This better be the floor. Plus, the airmass going into the event here is notably colder than March 6th, plus it's 3 weeks ealier on the calendar. Both factors have to help us at least with the front side snow..

Verbatim, the GFS is March 6th at my house. 4" overnight, followed by non-accumulating junk during the day, and a bunch of melting. If the Euro is our ceiling, let's hope this is our floor.

[Deck Pic]

with that being said..GFS was warm on the storm last week and it was right:(

 

GFS will be many people's 3rd or 4th best storm of the winter

[DCAlexandria]

Yoda, Ukie has it snowing till Friday AM?

[ohleary]

Stay the course.   So far, globals look fine (except, notably, the GFS....but I mean, it has been pretty terrible so far).   We're always at risk in this area.   If the euro looks warm/dry, then there's a cause for concern.

 

You can only say a model has been terrible only when you know the eventual outcome.  Easily, you could come back in two days and change terrible to correct.  We may have to wait until 00Z...and then maybe this thing is so walking the tightrope as Bob said, that consensus will be weak right up until nowcasting time.  There is no way to know.  All you can do is stay tuned and look for what makes sense.

[Huffwx]

Is UK QPF of the twelve hours ? 

 

72 12z UKIE QPF map

 

12zUKIE2-11-14QPF72hrmap.gif

[yoda]

Is UK QPF of the twelve hours ? 

Yes, I believe so

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Not sure if or how this matters, but does the Ukie have a 4D VAR type of assimilation?  I know the Euro and Canadian do.  Just that it seems interesting the 4D VAR solutions (global models) are really phasing the system and wrapping it up.  GFS is 3D VAR, and it's almost...but not quite...there, plus it's drier.  May just be coincidence, but just asking.