H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's awful close between 7am-10am but if we held on verbatim with the nam model, here's the totals through 10am. VERY impressive. hres10am.JPG Think you could get away with posting 850s or 925s for around that time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys are saturated to the strat with omega throughout the mid levels. Maybe someone with bufkit can comment, but I don't see a lot to stop the dendrite unloading at peak forcing. Arguably, the dendritic zone is a little high, giving flakes time to alter/rime but meh... If we can just hold on until 15z instead of 12z, we win...big time. Even getting to just 12z we'd be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's awful close between 7am-10am but if we held on verbatim with the nam model, here's the totals through 10am. VERY impressive. hres10am.JPG the 12z and 15z soundings are better than you might think....we'd be snow all the way until 10....the NAM is suggesting that during those heavy bands at 4am we mix...which is possible and we will all complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 the 12z and 15z soundings are better than you might think....we'd be snow all the way until 10....the NAM is suggesting that during those heavy bands at 4am we mix...which is possible and we will all complain You sure? And if heavier precip is the requirement to be back the thin layer, I'd think we'd do better at 9z than 15z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If we can just hold on until 15z instead of 12z, we win...big time. Even getting to just 12z we'd be good. we have to be mindful that if we mix it doesnt mean a flip...we could flirt with some pingers but they might not be the pingers of death,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We're all pretty pumped about the front end threat here. It's been so long since we had area wide +SN. I doubt many hardcore or even casual weenies will be sleeping tonight. I'm napping after the euro. lol ill be sleeping, though may stay up later than usual. and the kiddo will have me up by dawn. so it works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You sure? And if heavier precip is the requirement to be back the thin layer, I'd think we'd do better at 9z than 15z? the warm nose at 900-925 erodes and flattens toward dawn, and then our big issue becomes 750-850 warming by mid to late morning...the 12z sounding is fine and would be snow in heavy precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Seems like nws is going to bust low on 3-5 for dc overnight unless the gfs scores a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam looks similar to last nights euro with precip numbers. Gfs is on it's own.if it shows less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Andy, I don't have 925's @ wxbell. I use twisterdata but no high res unfortunately. Here's 24 and 27 respectively. The column as matt said definitely supports snow during higher rates. Could be pulsing during that 3 hr stretch. Would be kinda fun honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's awful close between 7am-10am but if we held on verbatim with the nam model, here's the totals through 10am. VERY impressive. hres10am.JPG Nice little maxima in the Centerville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks Bob. Those paint a very interesting picture of how temps will be affected by rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wonder if we switch to rain, that actually could be bad. If temps crash into the 20's Thur night the snow could freeze solid like a block of ice. The type where you can stand on top of it and its impossible to move. Ala March 1993. That would be absolutely wonderful.. how could that be bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We're all pretty pumped about the front end threat here. It's been so long since we had area wide +SN. I doubt many hardcore or even casual weenies will be sleeping tonight. I'm napping after the euro. lol I will not be sleeping, that's for sure. Can't wait - hopefully the storm doesn't let us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm in a mtg with ADM McRaven and can't stop browsing the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 it's the warm nose at 900-925mb that we need to be worried about....it is a very shallow layer and so close to freezing not sure we get PD2 style driving sleet...that was an inversion layer above 850mb anyway which is harder to combat.....that happens to us mid morning...we get a warm layer above...it is much less likely to get snow when you have that....a tiny warm nose at 900mb?...f-uck that...we can snow through that... Actually, if the NAM forecast were perfect, it would be snowing at 12Z and probably 15 if the precip rates stayed decent. By 18Z the sounding is a freezing drizzle sounding if the surface temps stays below freezing which it probably will except maybe right in the city. shove the warm nose temp to above 1C and we probably get sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Most reasonable snow map I've seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm feeling greedy, but looks like Hi-Res doesn't get the 1"qpf into the Northern MD Counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks Bob. Those paint a very interesting picture of how temps will be affected by rates. I think it's safe to say that we have a decent chance at all snow through 7am'ish. Average qpf is somewhere in the .75 range so far across guidance. Hardly anything to be bummed about. The maximas and flip spots become nowcasting meso after that. Euro was .75'ish last night during that time. I would hedge wetter. We'll probably see guidance do that through the day. The gfs may go from .08 to .8. lol Gulf moisture laden systems have beat model guidance qpf all year. Too bad most of us got rain out of them. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm in a mtg with ADM McRaven and can't stop browsing the board Lucky you. Any time I've been in a meeting with a GO, I couldn't have a phone in the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If we can just hold on until 15z instead of 12z, we win...big time. Even getting to just 12z we'd be good. This is not going to be a prolific period for you anyway. Plot the 500mb omega to see what I mean, since DC's dendrite zone is between 500-600mb. Omega up there arrives 00z, peaks 3-9z and then is gone. You won't be making good snowflakes after this moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you fix the link, we all don't have access to wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think it's safe to say that we have a decent chance at all snow through 7am'ish. Average qpf is somewhere in the .75 range so far across guidance. Hardly anything to be bummed about. The maximas and flip spots become nowcasting meso after that. Euro was .75'ish last night during that time. I would hedge wetter. We'll probably see guidance do that through the day. The gfs may go from .08 to .8. lol Gulf moisture laden systems have beat model guidance qpf all year. Too bad most of us got rain out of them. haha Mesoscale banding and the snow growth you and HM alluded to are going to make tonight fun. Someone will probably have 12" on the ground by 7-8am tomorrow. Looks like most of us will have 1"/hr rates for a few hours at least overnight and in the bands probably 2"/hr or maybe even 3"/hr. Gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z RGEM meteogram approaches 40mm... prob mostly snow but some sleet... precip does not end till ~11pm Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 wxbell folks, please post screenshots instead of links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM DCA at 15Z tomorrow...lower layers: 975.00, 251.55, -2.07, -2.88, 21.97, 26.86, 0.000297 950.00, 457.94, -2.15, -2.43, 33.89, 39.78, -0.000875 925.00, 670.52, -0.46, -0.59, 49.41, 49.82, -0.002364 900.00, 889.89, 0.28, 0.26, 60.41, 47.95, -0.003685 875.00, 1116.11, 0.72, 0.68, 71.91, 39.96, -0.004605 850.00, 1349.42, 1.17, 1.17, 85.08, 31.83, -0.005023 825.00, 1589.90, 1.30, 1.04, 96.58, 23.27, -0.004975 800.00, 1837.49, 0.62, 0.28, 109.15, 18.31, -0.004840 775.00, 2091.96, -0.20, -0.98, 120.86, 15.63, -0.004555 750.00, 2354.10, -1.09, -1.91, 127.27, 14.39, -0.004378 725.00, 2623.93, -2.41, -3.47, 142.33, 13.08, -0.004343 About 1500 meters above 0C but only maxing out at about 34F.j 18Z: 975.00, 217.92, -1.34, -1.80, 10.77, 23.62, 0.000510 950.00, 424.62, -2.50, -2.64, 21.12, 34.42, -0.000712 925.00, 636.49, -1.93, -2.23, 36.80, 43.20, -0.002866 900.00, 854.82, -0.55, -0.55, 51.79, 44.53, -0.004918 875.00, 1080.61, 0.63, 0.58, 64.97, 36.57, -0.005905 850.00, 1314.10, 1.23, 1.24, 75.38, 25.03, -0.005869 825.00, 1554.53, 1.39, 1.32, 88.09, 17.10, -0.005416 800.00, 1802.59, 1.15, 1.04, 104.25, 9.90, -0.004686 775.00, 2057.78, 0.38, -0.01, 134.32, 8.20, -0.004131 750.00, 2320.45, -0.33, -1.05, 159.45, 11.30, -0.004023 725.00, 2591.32, -1.60, -3.10, 171.91, 14.61, -0.004100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42839-february-12-13-storm-iv-model-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.