February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[Ian]

But what about the weather balloons? IIRC they run at 0&12z. Don't know whether that gets in in time for the 0&12z runs though.

I wasn't saying the obs network is useless or anything. Obviously we want those balloons. 

[WVclimo]

Closed 5h low over the Smoky Mts. At h45 on 12Z GFS..

[vinylfreak89]

    The parallel NAM which will be implemented in May or June has been consistently showing a

 warmer solution with a risk of mixing along the I-95 corridor, so other guidance this morning

 showing something similar may be a legitimate concern.

 

link to parallel nam?

[Yeoman]

Lack of precip looks like a far bigger issue

[Ian]

They are like the GFS and NAM, plenty of times they show different solutions. The RGEM is much better than the NAM of course.

Any proof of that? 

[Bob Chill]

h5 closed at 45 but opened back up at 48. Best close for the gfs so far. It's trying. 

[ravensrule]

Any proof of that? 

Nope don't have any verification scores but since the RGEM got upgraded it has done much better this winter than the NAM. If you can't take that as proof then I am SOL.

[WxUSAF]

GFS goes to pingers for all of us east of a JYO-FDK line during Thursday morning 12-18z or so.  

[high risk]

link to parallel nam?

 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nampll_namx_gsipll_3mods/

 

    NAMX is the one you want.   12z cycle won't be available for a few hours.

[snowfan]

GFS is roughly .7-.8 for DC.

[Ian]

Nope don't have any verification scores but since the RGEM got upgraded it has done much better this winter than the NAM. If you can't take that as proof then I am SOL.

I think you mean you're SQL.

[MN Transplant]

500 nearly closes off, and yet the low levels warm through the day Thurs.  Awful.

[va_ghost]

Looks like RIC goes over to rain on the RGEM around 7z Thursday.  Snow arrives in DC-Balt around 0-1z Thursday.  

I've been waiting for this.  We're not allowed to get big snowstorms.  They slide by us and clobber others.  

[welbane]

Horrible horrible run...

[DDweatherman]

500 nearly closes off, and yet the low levels warm through the day Thurs. Awful.

Any credence to that, earthlight over in the nyc forum says to not really pay attention it the gfs and its inferior thermal profiling?

[CheesyPoofs]

Maybe whoever wrote the morning AFD at LWX had a bit of a weenie moment while typing, haha. The "SIGNIFICANT TO PERHAPS CRIPPLING" was just changed to "SIGNIFICANT TO PERHAPS MAJOR" (rest of the section was untouched).

[stormtracker]

GFS, lol. Who knows, could be right. Next up, GGEM, then the king

[mitchnick]

GFS, lol. Who knows, could be right. Next up, GGEM, then the king

impressive basklash from the u/l

[North Balti Zen]

impressive basklash from the u/l

 

Does that mean it organizes in time to clock areas northeast of us perchance?

[MN Transplant]

GFS, lol. Who knows, could be right. Next up, GGEM, then the king

 

Verbatim, the GFS is March 6th at my house.  4" overnight, followed by non-accumulating junk during the day, and a bunch of melting.  If the Euro is our ceiling, let's hope this is our floor.

[yoda]

RGEM only goes to 48HR.

 

On meteocentre, 00z and 12z go to 48.  06z and 18z go to 54

[Huffwx]

    The parallel NAM which will be implemented in May or June has been consistently showing a

 warmer solution with a risk of mixing along the I-95 corridor, so other guidance this morning

 showing something similar may be a legitimate concern.

 

 

Who do you work for? Seem like you are in the know...

[Ian]

Hard to toss the GFS at this range IMO.  That said, 850 low passage is pretty decent and you'd think there would be more precip with a low that strength.  The 500mb is OK but not amazing. 

[Bob Chill]

Well, it's pretty obvious what we need. I have a hunch the GFS steps into the close off in west TN and holds the ball. But I'm not confident that solution is a lock either. Big storms are tough as nails to pull off. We know what we need. Euro and ens members are hell bent on an amped up/closed off solution so far. It's going to be a long 2 hours. 

[stormtracker]

Verbatim, the GFS is March 6th at my house.  4" overnight, followed by non-accumulating junk during the day, and a bunch of melting.  If the Euro is our ceiling, let's hope this is our floor.

Well, the RGEM has the r/s line up to DC at 48, so maybe the GFS is on to something, but still lacking in precip?

[yoda]

12z UKIE 48hr 850 map

 

[Ji]

something happened with this "new sampled" data

[Deck Pic]

looks like this could easily be a bust

[WxUSAF]

One of the globals is going to get its hat handed to it...

[Ian]

At least CWG's upcoming map will allow Ji to sleep unless he still thinks he lives at DCA.