mappy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 DC has over an inch of qpf by this time tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z NAM has 1" by 7am...some of that is likely mix for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Really like 6-8" for DC by 12z tomorrow, should be one hell of a thump overnight. Like Ian said, not impossible to wake up to 10", rates should be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 DC on the edge of 850 0C at 25 and 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 925 0 line just s/e of DC at 9z....could be some pingers..toward the morning.....FWIW, I think the models are all too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Do you work at LWX? NCEP 12z NAM has 1" by 7am...some of that is likely mix for DC Just starting to mix at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm liking the chances for the wrap around snows here in Salisbury. That's usually rare to get any accumulating snow after the storm changes to rain. MAYBE we can get an inch late Thursday night. Here are my thoughts snowfall.jpg its a real shame we can't get in on the main part of this storm...I for one am sitting here holding out hopes of a last minute east trend, but I don't think it's likely to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z NAM has 1" by 7am...some of that is likely mix for DC 925s flirt with 0 near DC from hr 22 on to 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 925 0 line just s/e of DC at 9z....could be some pingers..toward the morning.....FWIW, I think the models are all too warm I actually think they're a bit too warm in the low levels. The t/dp combo should be pretty suitable to cool down into the 20's as the snow starts tonight. If you have 6-10" areawide on the ground by 7-8AM, then you're probably not going to get too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam doesn't close off h5. Trough goes neg though. Near perfect h85 and slp track. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NCEP Just starting to mix at 12Z ahh ok, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam doesn't close off h5. Trough goes neg though. Near perfect h85 and slp track. Great run. yes, excellent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's the NAM...... You know the drill. Yeah pure shellacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Takes the 850 line to the Fairfax/Loudoun border then cools from there. Huge run for Loudoun County and NW. Stays moderate snow in that band for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 925 0 line just s/e of DC at 9z....could be some pingers..toward the morning.....FWIW, I think the models are all too warmI think so too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Little disappointed in the NAM. If it can't snow more than that, why bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Little disappointed in the NAM. If it can't snow more than that, why bother. If we were 48+ hours out it would purples for all. It's in line with qpf consensus now. Can't toss it anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 part of the reason we warm is because we dryslot....only about 0.2" from 12z to 18z....I doubt that will be driving rain.....we'll flip to moderate sleet and then to light mix/rain....and then flip back to snow....I dont see some driving rainstorm.... BTW...12z sounding for DC is way better than you might think...implies that mixing toward dawn might be more mix than flip...perhaps all snow when still heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Little disappointed in the NAM. If it can't snow more than that, why bother. What. We get crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 These instantweather maps people have really scored a coop over other real time model watching options....real quick like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just because a forecaster expressed their opinion in a discussion does not validate the claim regarding "feedback". It's opinion.....I am a met as well and I don't happen to 100% agree. I don't expect the GFS to end up being right, but using feedback is a total cop out. It had been a real issue some time ago in the summer convective season where the GFS would literally get single grid point storms, but this isn't even close to that type of situation. Cool, but you might wanna take that up with the forecaster who said it. I was just stating that vinyl and some others might not have been off and on the usual weenie excuse of convective feedback, give than someone in the know offered the same opinion. I don't hate the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 part of the reason we warm is because we dryslot....only about 0.2" from 12z to 18z....I doubt that will be driving rain.....we'll flip to moderate sleet and then to light mix/rain....and then flip back to snow....I dont see some driving rainstorm.... BTW...12z sounding for DC is way better than you might think...implies that mixing toward dawn might be more mix than flip...perhaps all snow when still heavy Good post. Gives hope/confidence a shot in the arm that we mostly maximize the heaviest period near the cities. Not much to complain about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Little disappointed in the NAM. If it can't snow more than that, why bother. you get like 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I dont like the 12z nam one bit for my area, Cecil County,MD. Oh my hefty snow hopes are fading fast. Someone talk me off the edge. Am i misreading the latest nam? Looks like maybe even rain from 24-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 you get like 15" He was trolling/pulling a Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good post. Gives hope/confidence a shot in the arm that we mostly maximize the heaviest period near the cities. Not much to complain about I really liked your numbers this morning Bob, they're pretty close to mine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'd be very happy with 12, that would put me exactly at climo for year (26.8). So if nothing else happens after, at least I made it there. But whatever I end up with is good in my book, white ground beats brown anyday! NAM sits the deformation zone on you for days. So, 10-12 front side and then whatever you get tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At a doctors appointment and hate to weenie like this but how does the back side look on the NAM? Very impressed by the pbp so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 part of the reason we warm is because we dryslot....only about 0.2" from 12z to 18z....I doubt that will be driving rain.....we'll flip to moderate sleet and then to light mix/rain....and then flip back to snow....I dont see some driving rainstorm.... BTW...12z sounding for DC is way better than you might think...implies that mixing toward dawn might be more mix than flip...perhaps all snow when still heavy Agree, it's all induced by a fall in uvv and proximity of dry slot. If we're sitting under 20+ dbz with a NW wind it's still likely snow at 31-33 surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 He was trolling/pulling a Ji Thank You Yoda. Come on everybody.....you guys are wound too tight. I was just injecting some much needed "banter" into the model discussion. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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