February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

J.Mike · February 12, 2014

FINAL CALL:

DCA: 3.1"

IAD: 9.5"

Please share your informed analysis for these figures.

Sent from my Droid DNA

vinylfreak89 · February 12, 2014

In my MA region experience, the back end is likely to move out faster than modeled.... Just sayin'...

This is only usually true in underdeveloped systems

high risk · February 12, 2014

Just because a forecaster expressed their opinion in a discussion does not validate the claim regarding "feedback". It's opinion.....I am a met as well and I don't happen to 100% agree.

I don't expect the GFS to end up being right, but using feedback is a total cop out. It had been a real issue some time ago in the summer convective season where the GFS would literally get single grid point storms, but this isn't even close to that type of situation.

+1 the term "convective feedback" used to refer to situations in which a model's convective scheme wouldn't shut off at a point, and you'd get a response of deep vertical motion which would generate local bullseyes of heavy precip. I think it also used to happen in the old Eta model where the convective scheme would fail to trigger in an environment where it needed to trigger, and the gridscale precip processes would kick in create local bullseyes. The current case is one of "potentially misplaced convection" (but we'll see how it plays out) in the GFS that has major impact on the model solution downstream.

Scuddz · February 12, 2014

Disappointing raobs from the southeast U.S. this morning for the NAM...no Charleston SC sounding...Nashville no winds...incomplete from Little Rock...had to delete lower levels temp/rh Tallahassee....

EDIT: looks like CHS made it in just in the nick of time.

Eww

twax1 · February 12, 2014

NWS has 4-8 for tonight and 3-5 for tomorrow in the Manassas, Va. area

Bob Chill · February 12, 2014

I think your numbers were fine.. maybe low. I still don't have the best handle on during the day tomorrow. We appear relatively locked in for tonight and as you say that should be pretty uniform. The ground is rock hard here.

I haven't even looked at the Euro and have a morning event so may not get to it till later. It sounded better at least..

If we have 5-10 on the ground in the morning tomorrow the raw temps for the day are probably a little high as is. Matt was noting last night in txt but not sure we went onto the right track for tomorrow for sure yday... scenario where it's quite wintry throughout seems plausible.

I think I have a pretty good shot at double digits.. maybe even DCA.

I'm pretty much undecided on tomorrow daytime as well. Dc proper will do better than dca for a myriad of reasons we've hashed out tirelessly through the years.

1 - 1.5 qpf seems like a lock at this point. My numbers are hedged low near the cities because things get complicated tomorrow and I was just taking a stab.

Boom or bust potential for daytime tomorrow is prob equal odds in this setup. Meso stuff is far from my forte. We'll see how models trend with the surface and h85 low today. We might be freaking out again (in a good way) later. Even if taint becomes high prob I'm still pretty stoked for the overnight

cgillesp · February 12, 2014

It's movin' on in!

dtk · February 12, 2014

+1 the term "convective feedback" used to refer to situations in which a model's convective scheme wouldn't shut off at a point, and you'd get a response of deep vertical motion which would generate local bullseyes of heavy precip. I think it also used to happen in the old Eta model where the convective scheme would fail to trigger in an environment where it needed to trigger, and the gridscale precip processes would kick in create local bullseyes. The current case is one of "potentially misplaced convection" (but we'll see how it plays out) in the GFS that has major impact on the model solution downstream.

Back in the day when I was working on my MS thesis, I was running a 90km version of the MM5 in real time. If people want to see a demonstration of what "convective feedback" really looks like, I think it should be easy to dig something out as I think the model still runs in real time twice a day.

ohleary · February 12, 2014

Just to clarify, does this mean that whatever the 12z NAM shows, we should take with a grain of salt because of the missing RAOBs in the SE?

No, it's just optimal to have a full set of raob data especially from upstream where the storm is occurring. Just disappointing.

Huffwx · February 12, 2014

You guys deserve a good thump after being bypassed most of this winter.

agree-- but like Dec 09, I felt bummed getting 14. Which is dumb-- I mean, played with my kids and all.

So, lower expectations.. enjoy everything.

Good shot for a top 10 event here. 12.7 is #10. I think you get crushed up there. 20 very possible

Ian · February 12, 2014

I'm pretty much undecided on tomorrow daytime as well. Dc proper will do better than dca for a myriad of reasons we've hashed out tirelessly through the years.

1 - 1.5 qpf seems like a lock at this point. My numbers are hedged low near the cities because things get complicated tomorrow and I was just taking a stab.

Boom or bust potential for daytime tomorrow is prob equal odds in this setup. Meso stuff is far from my forte. We'll see how models trend with the surface and h85 low today. We might be freaking out again (in a good way) later. Even if taint becomes high prob I'm still pretty stoked for the overnight

It'll be interesting to see how the first part comes together. Part of me wouldn't be surprised to wake up to like 10" of snow on the ground in the morning (assuming I go to sleep which is questionable).

I think your numbers are fine.. I don't really toss out numbers anymore. I'm not the best at doing that anyway.. I'm more a big picture guy for snow. My inkling from here is that many will go up today though.

mappy · February 12, 2014

No, it's just optimal to have a full set of raob data especially from upstream where the storm is occurring. Just disappointing.

Do you work at LWX?

high risk · February 12, 2014

Here is the convective precip between 00 and 06z this evening from the 00z NAM and GFS. This is when the NAM has an expansive shield of heavy snow moving in VA that is much weaker in the GFS. The GFS has a huge precip bullseye near HAT, but this shows that it's clearly not convective. In fact, the NAM is actually generating more convective precip near HAT even though the GFS is overall much wetter there.

Huffwx · February 12, 2014

Back in the day when I was working on my MS thesis, I was running a 90km version of the MM5 in real time. If people want to see a demonstration of what "convective feedback" really looks like, I think it should be easy to dig something out as I think the model still runs in real time twice a day.

Your feedback and insight is great. I appreciate when you take time and share your knowledge.

DDweatherman · February 12, 2014

My numbers

BWI: 9.7

DCA: 8.1

IAD: 11.2

HGR: 10.5

Final call at 2

clskinsfan · February 12, 2014

The NAM's bufkit numbers are ridiculous. Seeing that is basically fell in line with the Euro solution. I believe they may have some merit. And for the first time I can remember the ratio's are somewhat believable especially out west. Someone in that death band is gonna get 20 inches.

DCA:

140213/0300Z 21 06009KT 28.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
140213/0400Z 22 04009KT 27.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
140213/0500Z 23 04012KT 27.2F SNOW 16:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105 14:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
140213/0600Z 24 04012KT 27.2F SNOW 13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 14:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/0700Z 25 03009KT 27.6F SNOW 7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202 11:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0
140213/0800Z 26 02013KT 27.9F SNOW 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.156 10:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0
140213/0900Z 27 02017KT 29.4F SNPL 4:1| 0.6|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.155 9:1| 7.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.83 56| 43| 1
140213/1000Z 28 02017KT 31.5F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.02|| 0.133 9:1| 7.5|| 0.36|| 0.02|| 0.96 58| 25| 17
140213/1100Z 29 02015KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 9:1| 8.4|| 0.36|| 0.02|| 1.07 89| 6| 5
140213/1200Z 30 02015KT 32.1F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.110 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.18 70| 11| 18
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1300Z 31 03015KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.23 72| 0| 28
140213/1400Z 32 02015KT 33.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.26 0| 0|100
140213/1500Z 33 02015KT 33.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.28 0| 0|100
140213/1600Z 34 02014KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.29 0| 0|100
140213/1700Z 35 01013KT 33.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.31 0| 0|100
140213/1800Z 36 36013KT 33.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.33 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1900Z 37 35013KT 33.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.36 0| 0|100
140213/2000Z 38 34014KT 32.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.40 0| 0|100
140213/2100Z 39 34014KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.43 79| 0| 21
140213/2200Z 40 33015KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.45 79| 0| 21
140213/2300Z 41 33015KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.48 78| 0| 22
140214/0000Z 42 33015KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.50 75| 0| 25
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140214/0100Z 43 32016KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 8.4|| 0.54|| 0.02|| 1.50 66| 0| 34

IAD:

140213/0200Z 20 05009KT 26.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0
140213/0300Z 21 06007KT 26.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
140213/0400Z 22 03007KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0
140213/0500Z 23 03011KT 26.1F SNOW 16:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 14:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
140213/0600Z 24 02010KT 26.0F SNOW 15:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140 14:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/0700Z 25 02008KT 26.0F SNOW 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.206 13:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0
140213/0800Z 26 01011KT 26.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150 12:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71 100| 0| 0
140213/0900Z 27 01014KT 26.1F SNPL 4:1| 0.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.109 11:1| 9.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.82 88| 12| 0
140213/1000Z 28 01015KT 27.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 11:1| 9.7|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.91 92| 8| 0
140213/1100Z 29 02014KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100 11:1| 10.7|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.01 90| 10| 0
140213/1200Z 30 02015KT 28.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 10:1| 11.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.10 92| 8| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1300Z 31 36013KT 30.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.065 10:1| 11.1|| 0.03|| 0.07|| 1.17 0| 0|100
140213/1400Z 32 01014KT 31.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 10:1| 11.4|| 0.03|| 0.07|| 1.22 100| 0| 0
140213/1500Z 33 36015KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 10:1| 11.7|| 0.03|| 0.07|| 1.27 100| 0| 0
140213/1600Z 34 36015KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 9:1| 12.0|| 0.03|| 0.07|| 1.34 100| 0| 0
140213/1700Z 35 35015KT 31.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 9:1| 12.4|| 0.03|| 0.07|| 1.40 100| 0| 0
140213/1800Z 36 35016KT 31.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.050 9:1| 12.4|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.45 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1900Z 37 34016KT 31.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 9:1| 12.7|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.49 100| 0| 0
140213/2000Z 38 34016KT 31.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 9:1| 12.9|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.53 100| 0| 0
140213/2100Z 39 34016KT 32.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 9:1| 13.3|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.57 100| 0| 0
140213/2200Z 40 33016KT 32.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 9:1| 13.6|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.60 100| 0| 0
140213/2300Z 41 33016KT 32.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 9:1| 14.0|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.63 100| 0| 0
140214/0000Z 42 33017KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 14.0|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.65 84| 0| 16
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140214/0100Z 43 32017KT 33.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 9:1| 14.0|| 0.03|| 0.12|| 1.66 80| 0| 20

BWI:

140213/0300Z 21 05010KT 27.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0
140213/0400Z 22 05009KT 27.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
140213/0500Z 23 04011KT 26.9F SNOW 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 11:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
140213/0600Z 24 03014KT 26.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/0700Z 25 04009KT 27.6F SNOW 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.173 13:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0
140213/0800Z 26 03011KT 28.1F SNOW 8:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202 11:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 100| 0| 0
140213/0900Z 27 02014KT 28.8F SNPL 9:1| 1.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.150 11:1| 8.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.74 87| 13| 0
140213/1000Z 28 02018KT 31.2F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.20|| 0.04|| 0.140 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 0.88 42| 28| 30
140213/1100Z 29 02016KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.00 70| 8| 22
140213/1200Z 30 02014KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.10 50| 5| 45
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1300Z 31 03019KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.19 28| 3| 70
140213/1400Z 32 03016KT 33.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0|100
140213/1500Z 33 02016KT 33.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.24 0| 0|100
140213/1600Z 34 02016KT 33.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.25 0| 0|100
140213/1700Z 35 02014KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.26 0| 0|100
140213/1800Z 36 01013KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.28 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1900Z 37 36012KT 33.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.30 0| 0|100
140213/2000Z 38 35013KT 33.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.32 0| 0|100
140213/2100Z 39 34013KT 33.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.34 39| 48| 13
140213/2200Z 40 34014KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.36 72| 0| 28
140213/2300Z 41 33015KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.39 70| 0| 30
140214/0000Z 42 33015KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 8.1|| 0.24|| 0.04|| 1.40 71| 0| 29

MRB:

140213/0300Z 21 06007KT 23.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
140213/0400Z 22 07005KT 23.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
140213/0500Z 23 02008KT 23.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
140213/0600Z 24 02010KT 22.7F SNOW 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092 12:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/0700Z 25 01008KT 22.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 13:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
140213/0800Z 26 02008KT 22.7F SNOW 19:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 15:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
140213/0900Z 27 02010KT 22.5F SNOW 15:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.125 15:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64 100| 0| 0
140213/1000Z 28 01012KT 22.7F SNOW 13:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 15:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0
140213/1100Z 29 02014KT 23.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 14:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0
140213/1200Z 30 01012KT 24.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1300Z 31 36012KT 24.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88 100| 0| 0
140213/1400Z 32 36013KT 25.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 13:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0
140213/1500Z 33 36013KT 27.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 13:1| 12.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.97 100| 0| 0
140213/1600Z 34 35014KT 28.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 13:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0
140213/1700Z 35 35014KT 28.7F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 13:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06 100| 0| 0
140213/1800Z 36 35015KT 29.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 13:1| 14.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1900Z 37 34015KT 30.1F SNOW 16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 13:1| 15.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.19 100| 0| 0
140213/2000Z 38 34015KT 30.8F SNOW 17:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 13:1| 16.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24 100| 0| 0
140213/2100Z 39 33015KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 14:1| 17.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28 100| 0| 0
140213/2200Z 40 33016KT 32.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 13:1| 17.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.32 100| 0| 0
140213/2300Z 41 33016KT 32.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 17.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34 90| 0| 10
140214/0000Z 42 33016KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 17.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34 69| 0| 31

mosi76 · February 12, 2014

Part of me wouldn't be surprised to wake up to like 10" of snow on the ground in the morning (assuming I go to sleep which is questionable).

I am all with you Ian. Sleep also not likely for me

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

snowdude · February 12, 2014

I'm liking the current temps and dew points. A good sign.

Interstate · February 12, 2014

Do we start a new thread before the 12z suite really gets rolling?

WinterWxLuvr · February 12, 2014

I'll have my final numbers ready by about 3:30 tomorrow afternoon. I plan on doing a map as well. :blink:

chaydaw · February 12, 2014

Anyone care to comment on the current NAM run?

snowfan · February 12, 2014

At 20, NAM has DC pushing .6". Looks good.

Interstate · February 12, 2014

At 20, NAM has DC pushing .6". Looks good.

20? :huh:

WinterWxLuvr · February 12, 2014

Anyone care to comment on the current NAM run?

It's the NAM......

You know the drill.

mappy · February 12, 2014

At 20, NAM has DC pushing .6". Looks good.

by hr 23 DC is on the .9" qpf line

WinterWxLuvr · February 12, 2014

20?

Instant Weather

wxdude64 · February 12, 2014

agree-- but like Dec 09, I felt bummed getting 14. Which is dumb-- I mean, played with my kids and all.

So, lower expectations.. enjoy everything.

Good shot for a top 10 event here. 12.7 is #10. I think you get crushed up there. 20 very possible

I'd be very happy with 12, that would put me exactly at climo for year (26.8).

So if nothing else happens after, at least I made it there.

But whatever I end up with is good in my book, white ground beats brown anyday!

DUSTINMFOX · February 12, 2014

Seems slightly east to me

snowfan · February 12, 2014

At 24, 850s still E/SE of DC.

Interstate · February 12, 2014

Instant Weather

Okay... Thank you.

Member Statistics

February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

Recommended Posts

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Archived

Recently Browsing 0 members