MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Word of caution now that PSU e-wall has the HRRR - the radar they are going with is the composite reflectivity. I have no idea why they went with that over the available 1km, but it is what it is. No, it will not be snowing by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 DCTeacherman16 minutes ago "Loving the look of the deform band on the EURO, jackpot west of town but pivots through DC metro to cap us off with another few inches." Just want to see a wall of heavy snow approaching at 8 am tonight and put 6-10 on the ground by daybreak, and then will take my chances with the Thursday evolution. The gambler in me like that this could bust high. As mentioned yesterday, what wouldl put this storm in the "overperformer" category for us east of I95 is another 1-3/2-4" accumulation with the backside CCB. Well, that and over 6" of front-end snow. Granted, while I'd gladly take the double digits, it would be hard not to think about the ongoing pouring snow to my west as I mix or changeover to sleet or rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nearest weatherbug station to me says I'm still at 7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FINAL CALL: DCA: 3.1" IAD: 9.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 fwiw, last SREF run that came out before the 6Z NAM actually cooled from its prior run hopefully we get a trend in that direction........I hate taint when it's snowing 30 minutes to my west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FINAL CALL: DCA: 3.1" IAD: 9.5" Thanks, we've been waiting on the edge of our seats for your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 P&C has me at "Total accumulation 10-14".....that'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larryweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This reminds me a lot of 1979 storm when they were calling for 4-8 inches them ended up with 20 ... storm somewhat slowed down / stalled off coast ... will see ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This reminds me a lot of 1979 storm when they were calling for 4-8 inches them ended up with 20 ... storm somewhat slowed down / stalled off coast ... will see ... Not so sure we will reach 20. Especially if we mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FINAL CALL: DCA: 3.1" IAD: 9.5" Bust - you not the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 14 IMBY this AM. And Red Sky in the morning..... 17 in the metro for me and Red Sky Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cool to see nearly all counties in VA/MD warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's been great fun model watching with everyone. Thanks for all the pbp, expertise, and insights. Time to shift to the obs thread and await the great white wall of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Only ~28k w/o power in GA, not as bad as I thought at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Only ~28k w/o power in GA, not as bad as I thought at this point. It did not turn to freezing rain there until after 2 a.m, give it time it will get bad there by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 looks like vinyl and others arguing this last night were right after all. Just because a forecaster expressed their opinion in a discussion does not validate the claim regarding "feedback". It's opinion.....I am a met as well and I don't happen to 100% agree. I don't expect the GFS to end up being right, but using feedback is a total cop out. It had been a real issue some time ago in the summer convective season where the GFS would literally get single grid point storms, but this isn't even close to that type of situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm setting my bar in the 8-12 range I think. Anything less will be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This reminds me a lot of 1979 storm when they were calling for 4-8 inches them ended up with 20 ... storm somewhat slowed down / stalled off coast ... will see ... storm blew up over the gulf stream, they sure didn't expect what we got. I remember that storm very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm setting my bar in the 8-12 range I think. Anything less will be terrible. Thank you Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thank you Ji This might be our last good storm for 5 years.. it better be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm setting my bar in the 8-12 range I think. Anything less will be terrible. I guess you didn't like my 7.5 call. I'm upping my dc call to 7.75. The nice part here is its snow for all and below freezing at onset. No waste. Totals will be relatively uniform before mixing. I expect sleet but it could easily hold off till the very end of the thump. Dryslot isn't a guarantee for the cities imo. Track isn't nailed down to a 20 mile range. Should be a fun day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Disappointing raobs from the southeast U.S. this morning for the NAM...no Charleston SC sounding...Nashville no winds...incomplete from Little Rock...had to delete lower levels temp/rh Tallahassee.... EDIT: looks like CHS made it in just in the nick of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Disappointing raobs from the southeast U.S. this morning for the NAM...no Charleston SC sounding...Nashville no winds...incomplete from Little Rock...had to delete lower levels temp/rh Tallahassee.... Just to clarify, does this mean that whatever the 12z NAM shows, we should take with a grain of salt because of the missing RAOBs in the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just to clarify, does this mean that whatever the 12z NAM shows, we should take with a grain of salt because of the missing RAOBs in the SE? It should still get satellite data though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This might be our last good storm for 5 years.. it better be really good. So this will be the 'reset' storm....another 5-6 years of bad winters ahead? Chilly here, 15ish this am. Nice cold set up for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I guess you didn't like my 7.5 call. I'm upping my dc call to 7.75. The nice part here is its snow for all and below freezing at onset. No waste. Totals will be relatively uniform before mixing. I expect sleet but it could easily hold off till the very end of the thump. Dryslot isn't a guarantee for the cities imo. Track isn't nailed down to a 20 mile range. Should be a fun day I think your numbers were fine.. maybe low. I still don't have the best handle on during the day tomorrow. We appear relatively locked in for tonight and as you say that should be pretty uniform. The ground is rock hard here. I haven't even looked at the Euro and have a morning event so may not get to it till later. It sounded better at least.. If we have 5-10 on the ground in the morning tomorrow the raw temps for the day are probably a little high as is. Matt was noting last night in txt but not sure we went onto the right track for tomorrow for sure yday... scenario where it's quite wintry throughout seems plausible. I think I have a pretty good shot at double digits.. maybe even DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm setting my bar in the 8-12 range I think. Anything less will be terrible. I'm trying to keep mine low, but all these sexy runs have me amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This might be our last good storm for 5 years.. it better be really good. I have a hunch next winter will be active. Probably not as arctic cold, but with possibly at least a weak El Nino, and with at least a better chance for some blocking/-NAO phases (which we lacked this winter), I just think we'll do well, as in above climo snowfall wise. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm trying to keep mine low, but all these sexy runs have me amped. You guys deserve a good thump after being bypassed most of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you believe in solar flare activity (or the projected cyclical lack thereof) then next winter will be a cold one also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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