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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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jnis

jnis

Posted
Posted

Very detailed AFD just out of LWX:

LATEST SREF SNOW RATIOS SHOW A BROAD 10-12:1 REGIME FROM THE I-95

CORRIDOR AND WEST - WHILE THE BAY TO I-95 IS SPREAD BETWEEN 5-10:1.

AS W/ MOST WINTRY COASTAL STORM SYSTEMS...MIXING OF SLEET/RAIN

WITHIN 50-100 MILES OF THE SFC LOW ALWAYS A FACTOR FOR OUR REGION.

THE DAYTIME HRS OF THU WILL BE NO DIFFERENT W/ PERIODS OF MIXED

PRECIP ALONG AND E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM MID MRNG THRU LATE EVE

W/ THE POSSIBLE BRIEF CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW W/ WHAT LITTLE

PRECIP IS STILL LEFTOVER AT THAT TIME. EVEN W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR

RANGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SRN MD/COUNTIES ALONG THE BAY AND

PARTS OF THE ERN DC METRO SUBURBS FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP...

TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWERED FROM THE MIXING OF RAIN/SLEET AND EVEN

SFC TEMPS WAVERING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR ANY LENGTH OF

TIME MIDDAY.

THIS WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF I-95

Well i see channel 4 and channel 9 have snow starting at 9, mixing at 3 in calvert and 4 am in DC.  Then staying mixed until thursday afternoon.  Is this right?  If so, doesn't seem like hardly any snow at all, even for DC.  This can't be right....right?

 

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted

Maybe not DCA, but I'm in DC and I'm sitting at 16

Yeah.. it was 18 at the Science Center this morning in Downtown Baltimore.  After looking at the temps in the region this morning, I have more confidence that the cold air will last through the entire front end piece... and based on the guidance we may get just inside the comma head for the period where there is enough flow off the ocean to turn us over... maybe just a little drizzle?  then as the precip field pivots to more of a NE to SW direction we hopefully flip back over to snow a couple inches on the back end.  

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted

Well i see channel 4 and channel 9 have snow starting at 9, mixing at 3 in calvert and 4 am in DC.  Then staying mixed until thursday afternoon.  Is this right?  If so, doesn't seem like hardly any snow at all, even for DC.  This can't be right....right?

Here this is the euro from earlier... 

 

DCA

THU 06Z 13-FEB -2.9 -3.2 1020 90 98 0.21 553 538

THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.5 -0.4 1009 92 100 0.54 550 542

THU 18Z 13-FEB 1.0 1.7 996 92 77 0.24 543 546

FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.1 -4.9 992 88 78 0.16 532 539

FRI 06Z 14-FEB 2.4 -1.6 996 80 84 0.21 533 536

 

But it is consistent with its previous runs.  The two columns after FEB are Surface and 850 temps... notice that it doesnt get above freezing til between 12z and 18z.  That would suggest the change over to be during mid day Thurs...  then another .37 inches of QPF after the 850s crash to -4.9 between 007 and 06z on Friday.  So basically that means back to snow around Dinner time on Thursday with perhaps another 2-4 inches.   The euro has showed this type of output over and over again... 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Heh, ran through 6z guidance. All systems go. High res nam is a pummeling for the cities all things considered. Column looks to go sleet sometime between 4-7am for a bit before a taper but a solid 6-10 is on the ground.

Best deform will prob be loudon/fdk but that's still a moving target.

Here's my guess for fun:

Dca: 7.5

Bwi: 8.5

Iad: 11.5

Jyo: 13

Fdk: 13

Mby: 10

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mdsnowlover

mdsnowlover

Posted
Posted

Heh, ran through 6z guidance. All systems go. High res nam is a pummeling for the cities all things considered. Column looks to go sleet sometime between 4-7am for a bit before a taper but a solid 6-10 is on the ground.

Best deform will prob be loudon/fdk but that's still a moving target.

Here's my guess for fun:

Dca: 7.5

Bwi: 8.5

Iad: 11.5

Jyo: 13

Fdk: 13

Mby: 10

thanks for all you efforts. Time to sit back and enjoy  !!

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Joshfsu123

Joshfsu123

Posted
Posted

Capitol Hill made it to 17 and Navy Yard made it to 15

 

Yep. For whatever reason (river probably) my area in Navy Yard always runs a bit cooler, especially when compared to DCA. Temps are fine this AM in Navy Yard.

 

GFS still having QPF issues but pretty much locked onto the euro solution. Good consensus now at H5 (NAM is still a bit weird in regards to cutting off)

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted

RGEM is wet (1.2" through 12z and 1.7"ish for the total) but the low is over Rehobeth at 18z so our 850s warm for most of the day until we crash between 21z and 00z Friday. Move the low 25 miles east and our 850s are much better.

The RGEM is struggling with this. Yesterday it took the low up the Chesapeake Bay. Not sure why folks have been clinging to it so much. In years past we mostly ignored it.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

The RGEM is struggling with this. Yesterday it took the low up the Chesapeake Bay. Not sure why folks have been clinging to it so much. In years past we mostly ignored it.

Agree. I just started looking at it this year. It's pretty good with lighter events. Did well on Jan 21st. It's obvious now that it struggles with big storms.

We'll see how the event unfolds. I'm starting to wonder if the nam is better than I think. Probably not. But sure seems like the nam is handling this storm better than the gfs. Euro locked into this storm in September it seems

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jnis

jnis

Posted
Posted

LWX forecast for Damascus...   I'm hoping for 10 -12

 

  • TonightSnow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Northeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
  • ThursdaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  •  
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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted

The RGEM is struggling with this. Yesterday it took the low up the Chesapeake Bay. Not sure why folks have been clinging to it so much. In years past we mostly ignored it.

Good point on the recent jumps on the track of the low. It scored a win or two this winter but the set up was completely different. I like that it supports a wet solution though.

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winterymix

winterymix

Posted
Posted

I'm liking the high rez NAM and this indicates snow begins around 9 pm most areas tonight and changes to sleet from SE to NW starting around 8 am and mixing back to snow around 3 pm Thursday afternoon.  The system cuts off 24 hours after the start.

 

Not bad.  It doesn't seem to bring rain or freezing rain into DC and Baltimore.   Sure, snow depths will be a bit curtailed due to about six to eight hours of mixing with and/or changing to sleet.  I'm guessing most areas in DC/Balto. will see 6 to 10 inches snow before mix with or change to sleet and then another inch or two wrap around snow on the back end. 

 

If the back end could only over-perform...

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