H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 looks like vinyl and others arguing this last night were right after all. There had to be a reason for the GFS to consistently show significantly lower and warmer precip amounts. If it is handling something incorrectly then that explains it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm liking the chances for the wrap around snows here in Salisbury. That's usually rare to get any accumulating snow after the storm changes to rain. MAYBE we can get an inch late Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well i see channel 4 and channel 9 have snow starting at 9, mixing at 3 in calvert and 4 am in DC. Then staying mixed until thursday afternoon. Is this right? If so, doesn't seem like hardly any snow at all, even for DC. This can't be right....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There had to be a reason for the GFS to consistently show significantly lower and warmer precip amounts. If it is handling something incorrectly then that explains it all some mets have said, repeatedly, the GFS is not good at east coast snow storms, guess the GFS proved them right this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Very detailed AFD just out of LWX: LATEST SREF SNOW RATIOS SHOW A BROAD 10-12:1 REGIME FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WEST - WHILE THE BAY TO I-95 IS SPREAD BETWEEN 5-10:1. AS W/ MOST WINTRY COASTAL STORM SYSTEMS...MIXING OF SLEET/RAIN WITHIN 50-100 MILES OF THE SFC LOW ALWAYS A FACTOR FOR OUR REGION. THE DAYTIME HRS OF THU WILL BE NO DIFFERENT W/ PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG AND E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM MID MRNG THRU LATE EVE W/ THE POSSIBLE BRIEF CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW W/ WHAT LITTLE PRECIP IS STILL LEFTOVER AT THAT TIME. EVEN W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR RANGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SRN MD/COUNTIES ALONG THE BAY AND PARTS OF THE ERN DC METRO SUBURBS FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP... TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWERED FROM THE MIXING OF RAIN/SLEET AND EVEN SFC TEMPS WAVERING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME MIDDAY. THIS WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF I-95 Well i see channel 4 and channel 9 have snow starting at 9, mixing at 3 in calvert and 4 am in DC. Then staying mixed until thursday afternoon. Is this right? If so, doesn't seem like hardly any snow at all, even for DC. This can't be right....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here are my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Maybe not DCA, but I'm in DC and I'm sitting at 16 Yeah.. it was 18 at the Science Center this morning in Downtown Baltimore. After looking at the temps in the region this morning, I have more confidence that the cold air will last through the entire front end piece... and based on the guidance we may get just inside the comma head for the period where there is enough flow off the ocean to turn us over... maybe just a little drizzle? then as the precip field pivots to more of a NE to SW direction we hopefully flip back over to snow a couple inches on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Most spots are in the mid-teens. River not helping tonight. Capitol Hill made it to 17 and Navy Yard made it to 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well i see channel 4 and channel 9 have snow starting at 9, mixing at 3 in calvert and 4 am in DC. Then staying mixed until thursday afternoon. Is this right? If so, doesn't seem like hardly any snow at all, even for DC. This can't be right....right? Here this is the euro from earlier... DCA THU 06Z 13-FEB -2.9 -3.2 1020 90 98 0.21 553 538 THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.5 -0.4 1009 92 100 0.54 550 542 THU 18Z 13-FEB 1.0 1.7 996 92 77 0.24 543 546 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.1 -4.9 992 88 78 0.16 532 539 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 2.4 -1.6 996 80 84 0.21 533 536 But it is consistent with its previous runs. The two columns after FEB are Surface and 850 temps... notice that it doesnt get above freezing til between 12z and 18z. That would suggest the change over to be during mid day Thurs... then another .37 inches of QPF after the 850s crash to -4.9 between 007 and 06z on Friday. So basically that means back to snow around Dinner time on Thursday with perhaps another 2-4 inches. The euro has showed this type of output over and over again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here are my thoughts snowfall.jpg LOVE IT!!! Now just take a track that ends up about 50 miles east of the models and keep even more of the warm air outta here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heh, ran through 6z guidance. All systems go. High res nam is a pummeling for the cities all things considered. Column looks to go sleet sometime between 4-7am for a bit before a taper but a solid 6-10 is on the ground. Best deform will prob be loudon/fdk but that's still a moving target. Here's my guess for fun: Dca: 7.5 Bwi: 8.5 Iad: 11.5 Jyo: 13 Fdk: 13 Mby: 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heh, ran through 6z guidance. All systems go. High res nam is a pummeling for the cities all things considered. Column looks to go sleet sometime between 4-7am for a bit before a taper but a solid 6-10 is on the ground. Best deform will prob be loudon/fdk but that's still a moving target. Here's my guess for fun: Dca: 7.5 Bwi: 8.5 Iad: 11.5 Jyo: 13 Fdk: 13 Mby: 10 thanks for all you efforts. Time to sit back and enjoy !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From LWX: my P&C says 3-7" tonight and another 5-9" tomorrow. (So 8-16.") ZFP says 4-6" tonight, and 10-14" total. WSW says 6-10" total accumulation with up to 12" at elevation. Not sure why they don't tie all these forecasts together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Capitol Hill made it to 17 and Navy Yard made it to 15 Yep. For whatever reason (river probably) my area in Navy Yard always runs a bit cooler, especially when compared to DCA. Temps are fine this AM in Navy Yard. GFS still having QPF issues but pretty much locked onto the euro solution. Good consensus now at H5 (NAM is still a bit weird in regards to cutting off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Loving the look of the deform band on the EURO, jackpot west of town but pivots through DC metro to cap us off with another few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, I fell asleep at midnight and had been waking up at 3 to check euro and NAM Woke up at 5. Data is staggering. Lynchburg and Roanoke have legit shot at top 10 event ever, top 3-4 is even possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM is wet (1.2" through 12z and 1.7"ish for the total) but the low is over Rehobeth at 18z so our 850s warm for most of the day until we crash between 21z and 00z Friday. Move the low 25 miles east and our 850s are much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM is wet (1.2" through 12z and 1.7"ish for the total) but the low is over Rehobeth at 18z so our 850s warm for most of the day until we crash between 21z and 00z Friday. Move the low 25 miles east and our 850s are much better. The RGEM is struggling with this. Yesterday it took the low up the Chesapeake Bay. Not sure why folks have been clinging to it so much. In years past we mostly ignored it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just want to see a wall of heavy snow approaching at 8 am tonight and put 6-10 on the ground by daybreak, and then will take my chances with the Thursday evolution. The gambler in me like that this could bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RGEM is struggling with this. Yesterday it took the low up the Chesapeake Bay. Not sure why folks have been clinging to it so much. In years past we mostly ignored it. Agree. I just started looking at it this year. It's pretty good with lighter events. Did well on Jan 21st. It's obvious now that it struggles with big storms. We'll see how the event unfolds. I'm starting to wonder if the nam is better than I think. Probably not. But sure seems like the nam is handling this storm better than the gfs. Euro locked into this storm in September it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LWX forecast for Damascus... I'm hoping for 10 -12 TonightSnow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Northeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. ThursdaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I never their I would say this, but it seems like the media outlets are erring low here. I guess they are not buying that temps won't create a large rain and changeover band and/or they discount the back end comma head additive inches. 3 inches as a low to a range seems laughably small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RGEM is struggling with this. Yesterday it took the low up the Chesapeake Bay. Not sure why folks have been clinging to it so much. In years past we mostly ignored it. Good point on the recent jumps on the track of the low. It scored a win or two this winter but the set up was completely different. I like that it supports a wet solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm liking the high rez NAM and this indicates snow begins around 9 pm most areas tonight and changes to sleet from SE to NW starting around 8 am and mixing back to snow around 3 pm Thursday afternoon. The system cuts off 24 hours after the start. Not bad. It doesn't seem to bring rain or freezing rain into DC and Baltimore. Sure, snow depths will be a bit curtailed due to about six to eight hours of mixing with and/or changing to sleet. I'm guessing most areas in DC/Balto. will see 6 to 10 inches snow before mix with or change to sleet and then another inch or two wrap around snow on the back end. If the back end could only over-perform... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 14 IMBY this AM. And Red Sky in the morning..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the back end could only over-perform... In my MA region experience, the back end is likely to move out faster than modeled.... Just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In my MA region experience, the back end is likely to move out faster than modeled.... Just sayin'... Think capture. If the 500 mb low can hold conversation with the surface low and simply request, "Hold up, Dude. I'm coming. Be there in coupla hours..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In my MA region experience, the back end is likely to move out faster than modeled.... Just sayin'... yes agree with this, storms end sooner than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 got down to 8 degrees in Purcellville. My point and click is now 9 to 17! thinking 12 for me, 13 for Jyo, 9 dca.. we will see.. hopefully we get more than it looks like because I am greedy when it comes to snow, but this will be nice. All nighter tonight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Didn't see a specific thread for this, so Obs thread for this storm here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42835-feb-12-13-obs-for-the-storm-that-wouldnt-say-no/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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