odwalla Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still mixing concerns in the morning, but 1.2" QPFhas already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 DCA sitting at 24* after only dropping 5* since 7pn. No way they'll make 17 tonight. Most spots are in the mid-teens. River not helping tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Shellacking along I81. Back to sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM hammers western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What is the approximate rates per hour from 35 dBz snow returns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What is the approximate rates per hour from 35 dBz snow returns? Depends on snow growth. But definitely in the 2-3" range usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow the NAM turned euroish real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Someone mentioned that there may be thundersnows in the front end thump. I experienced a TSSN in 1987, I think in January, that dumped 6 inches of snow in ten minutes. HUGE flakes simply poured down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, both temp profile and precip distribution wise close to a rip and read of Euro, 12"+ EZF-BWI west, and I-95 flirts with dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow the NAM turned euroish real quick. Funny thing is H5 is completely different. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Holy hell. Bombed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh hi!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Areas near Appling Georgia which is in east central Ga will receive up to 1.2 inches of ice through tonight. They are also under a Civil Emergency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's about time. Yes...God knows you people out there have been long suffering this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, this was nice to wake up to...euro looks better than 12z...back from the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 DCA sitting at 24* after only dropping 5* since 7pn. No way they'll make 17 tonight. Maybe not DCA, but I'm in DC and I'm sitting at 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes...God knows you people out there have been long suffering this winter! Not a bad winter here, but I have not seen a storm over 5" yet. So this will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Very detailed AFD just out of LWX: DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS UP UNTIL THE PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS /SFC AND THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN/ BELOW FREEZING AND PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW AS IT COMES IN LATE TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU... THE HEFTY AMOUNTS OF CLOUD DEBRIS COMING IN JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL MAKE EASILY OVERCOME THE DRY MID LEVELS WITHIN A RELATIVELY BRIEF FEW HRS LATER THIS AFTN. NOW W/ SOME NEAR TERM HI-RES MODELS COMING ONTO THE SCOPE...SOME MORE EXACT TIMING CAN BE ASSESSED. BY THE LATE AFTN HRS...WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE SECTION OF VIRGA WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE AREA - ENCOMPASSING THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE AFTN HRS - 4-6PM OR SLIGHTLY LATER. WITHIN A COUPLE OF HRS AFTER THIS...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY REACH THE SFC AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THRU THE REST OF THE EVE/NIGHTTIME HRS. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY SOLID AS IT COVERS THE CAROLINAS AND MUCH OF SRN VA BEFORE COASTAL LOW TRANSITION TAKES PLACE. THE AXIS OF PRECIP WILL BE MORE WEST-TO-EAST...THEN PIVOTING NE-SW AS THE TRANSITION TAKES PLACE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR ONE...THE ECMWF AND RELATED ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/ LITTLE WAVERING OVER TOTAL QPFS WHICH RANGE BETWEEN 0.5-1.0" LIQUID EQUIV ACROSS THE AREA - MUCH OF THAT ARRIVING W/ THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP WRAPPED AROUND THE HEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE EURO IS ALSO MAINTAINING A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE STORM SYSTEM - KEEPING PRECIP AROUND WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS ON THU. THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN LEANING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF QPF AND SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER EXIT TO THE SYSTEM...MIDDAY/EVE THU. THE 06Z NAM HOWEVER HAS SPLASHED A BIT HIGHER QPF ONTO THE PREV RUN HOWEVER AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECM SOLN. THURSDAY... LATEST SREF SNOW RATIOS SHOW A BROAD 10-12:1 REGIME FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WEST - WHILE THE BAY TO I-95 IS SPREAD BETWEEN 5-10:1. AS W/ MOST WINTRY COASTAL STORM SYSTEMS...MIXING OF SLEET/RAIN WITHIN 50-100 MILES OF THE SFC LOW ALWAYS A FACTOR FOR OUR REGION. THE DAYTIME HRS OF THU WILL BE NO DIFFERENT W/ PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG AND E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM MID MRNG THRU LATE EVE W/ THE POSSIBLE BRIEF CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW W/ WHAT LITTLE PRECIP IS STILL LEFTOVER AT THAT TIME. EVEN W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR RANGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SRN MD/COUNTIES ALONG THE BAY AND PARTS OF THE ERN DC METRO SUBURBS FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP... TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWERED FROM THE MIXING OF RAIN/SLEET AND EVEN SFC TEMPS WAVERING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME MIDDAY. THIS WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF I-95 IN NRN VA AND MD...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE QPF AXIS FOR MANY GUIDANCE MEMBERS AS WE NEAR THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE "COMMA-HEAD" PRECIP ZONE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD INTO THU MRNG/AFTN...THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS CAN DEVELOP - INCREASING SFC WINDS AND DROPPING VSBYS. THIS IS ALSO WHEN DRIER AIR CAN GET ENTRAINED INTO PARTS OF THE SYSTEM AND BEGIN TO CUT OFF PRECIP IN CERTAIN AREAS - WHILE ENHANCING NEARBY BANDS. THIS MAKES THE SECOND PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM TRICKY TO FORECAST...WHERE AREAS THAT RECEIVED MODEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEFORE IT CAN GET ANOTHER QUICK FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BAND(S) SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT LASTS. FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE UPDATE...INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE AXIS THAT IS CENTERED ON THE BLUE RIDGE - W/ JUST OVER A FOOT OF STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA AND TAPERING OFF ON EITHER SIDE. THE ENTIRE CWA OUTSIDE OF ST MARYS AND CALVERT CO ARE UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU MID-LATE IN THE DAY ON THU. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, this was nice to wake up to...euro looks better than 12z...back from the ledge ENS is a bit wetter than op too. Which is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Maybe the GFS will get a clue when the storm is over. Looked like convective feedback ruined that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looked like convective feedback ruined that run. Pretty much time to just stop looking at it. All the other models been solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS still having QPF issues but pretty much locked onto the euro solution. Good consensus now at H5 (NAM is still a bit weird in regards to cutting off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 About 0.8" QPF on the GFS @ DCA thru 48hrs, so it's wetter, despite still being the driest model. It's also toasty..maybe has to due with the lack of precip?...shave a couple degrees off and it'd be ok. Hopefully the cold air holds on longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So it looks like... GFS/ Euro OP H5 and SFC with a blend of Euro ENS / OP and RGEM for Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hot off the press:PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD432 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014VALID 12Z WED FEB 12 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 15 2014....THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLYAND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTCOAST... AS THE PHASED TROUGH ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. THEGUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CLASSIC COASTALWINTER STORM BUT STILL DIFFER ON SOME OF THE IMPORTANT DETAILS...MAINLY THE CRITICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND IF THE TREMENDOUSATLANTIC INFLOW HAS AN IMPACT OR NOT ON THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. LIKETHE LAST FEW NIGHTS... WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND/COMPROMISEOF THE GFS/ECMWF AND SREF MEAN ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES BUTCLOSER TO THE ECMWF/SREF MEAN FOR THERMAL PROFILES... AS THE GFSAPPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME FEEDBACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINETHAT IS NOT ONLY IMPACTING THERMALS BUT KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS LOWEROVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS WPC STILL EXPECTS A HEALTHY AXIS OFHEAVY DEFORMATION/DYNAMIC COOLING SNOWFALL JUST WEST OF I95 ORMORE SNOW FOR DC/BALT UP THROUGH ERN PA INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM purples the DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol RGEM, takes a 974mb closed h5 low into LI sound then the express train to Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hot off the press: PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 432 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 VALID 12Z WED FEB 12 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 15 2014 .... THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST... AS THE PHASED TROUGH ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. THE GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CLASSIC COASTAL WINTER STORM BUT STILL DIFFER ON SOME OF THE IMPORTANT DETAILS... MAINLY THE CRITICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND IF THE TREMENDOUS ATLANTIC INFLOW HAS AN IMPACT OR NOT ON THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. LIKE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS... WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND SREF MEAN ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/SREF MEAN FOR THERMAL PROFILES... AS THE GFS APPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME FEEDBACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THAT IS NOT ONLY IMPACTING THERMALS BUT KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS LOWER OVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS WPC STILL EXPECTS A HEALTHY AXIS OF HEAVY DEFORMATION/DYNAMIC COOLING SNOWFALL JUST WEST OF I95 OR MORE SNOW FOR DC/BALT UP THROUGH ERN PA INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. looks like vinyl and others arguing this last night were right after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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