February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[Ji]

Accuweather mos always matches model

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

how much does it show for ric with the wrap around?

According to the map posted ( I cant see the Euro),... 10-11 inches. I hope that takes into account mixing . But the models are highly n agreement on that comma head coming thru Thursday, with strong lift and possible accumulations/\. We shall see.

[Deck Pic]

Wxbell matches accuweather that panel. There is literally a small and dry precip hole in the middle of the deform band that runs almost right up 95 from DC to Annapolis to just north of Balt. All surrounding areas are 25-.30+. Can't be taken literal as it looks ridiculous.

 

The panel ending at 48 hours?...not the one ending at 42

[jlewis1111]

According to the map posted ( I cant see the Euro),... 10-11 inches. I hope that takes into account mixing . But the models are highly n agreement on that comma head coming thru Thursday, with strong lift and possible accumulations/\. We shall see.

Thank you yes I cant either and we have these dc guys that just want to talk about there area and show no love for RIC SMH

[Deck Pic]

Accuweather mos always matches model

 

lol...it is off quite often....it is accuweather after all

[nflwxman]

euro has deathbanded me the last 5 runs. The RGEM looks similar but more tilted SW to NE.

I'm starting to think 12" is a lock here.

[k94]

Thundersnow possible on euro?

[HighStakes]

The panel ending at 48 hours?...not the one ending at 42

Yes. Then it shows you getting about .25 between 48-54 before ending.

[Ji]

lol...it is off quite often....it is accuweather after all

Accuweather dosent make it up. I'm sure it's coming straight from the euro model

[Deck Pic]

Yes. Then it shows you getting about .25 between 48-54 before ending.

 

yes....thanks...it is a data issue...my map smooths it over....it is an error....

[Deck Pic]

Accuweather dosent make it up. I'm sure it's coming straight from the euro model

 

.but there are going to be subtle differences in any text output......anyway sounds like an error based on wxbell maps...I have good maps and DC gets 0.3" or more that panel

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Thank you yes I cant either and we have these dc guys that just want to talk about there area and show no love for RIC SMH

The local mets have been lowballing this storm, especially nbc12. However, with mixing possible, they probably are staying with smaller amounts and anything more is icing on the cake.

[Ji]

.but there are going to be subtle differences in any text output......anyway sounds like an error based on wxbell maps...I have good maps and DC gets 0.3" or more that panel

Dca gets over 6 this storm?

[Deck Pic]

Dca gets over 6 this storm?

 

35%

[HighStakes]

yes....thanks...it is a data issue...my map smooths it over....it is an error....

No problem. In the same panel that has you at .16 it has skinny band from Frederick to Leesburg at .5-.6.5 getting rocked. Who knows where that band ultimately sets up if it even does at all, but if it does someone may get close to 20.

[WEATHER53]

Like to see it getting cloudy around 11am and thwart the sun.

[MidlothianWX]

Thank you yes I cant either and we have these dc guys that just want to talk about there area and show no love for RIC SMH

I've already mentioned this a few times but...just pop in the central VA thread. That is what it is there for.

[blueapple]

Like to see it getting cloudy around 11am and thwart the sun.

DCA sitting at 24* after only dropping 5* since 7pn. No way they'll make 17 tonight.

[MDstorm]

DCA sitting at 24* after only dropping 5* since 7pn. No way they'll make 17 tonight.

11.5 * here.  Once you take 2 steps outside of DCA, most weather stations are in the mid-upper teens.

 

MDstorm

[Jebman]

I am at 15 degrees and heading straight for 12. Dewpoint is 9

 

ground is frozen real good. roads are cold.

 

edge of the snow shield is approaching the NC/SC border. 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php

[Powderhound]

this sounds good from blacksburg--

 

 

 

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA ARE ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE
7C/KM THROUGH ABOUT A 150MB THICK LAYER...FROM THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT INTENSE 2"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW. UNDERNEATH
THESE BANDS TRAVEL WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY THE LEAST. PRIOR
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES/STORMS IN THE PAST...HAVE LED TO
STRANDED VEHICLES ALONG MAJOR INTERSTATES IN THE REGION. THIS
HAPPENED DURING THE SNOWSTORM OF DECEMBER 2009. NOT SAYING THIS
STORM WILL BE ANOTHER DEC 2009...BUT SOME OF THE CHARACTERISTICS
ARE SIMILAR.

[Jebman]

this sounds good from blacksburg--

Heavy wet snow with those rates is NO time to be driving around. The wet snow gets packed onto the road and it gets real frackin easy to slide. These roads are COLD. Any snow that falls will pile up FAST. I got plenty of food, fresh water, beer and blankets just in case the power goes out. Heavy wet snow will take down branches and powerlines.

[MDstorm]

Watching the sky turn "milky" tomorrow is going to be nice.  Good to even great storm for many on this board coming up.   Not much left to do except watch it all come together.  I'm also waiting for that magical moment when the GFS gets a clue. 

 

MDstorm

[OleFalls]

DCA sitting at 24* after only dropping 5* since 7pn. No way they'll make 17 tonight.

17F here now in Great Falls.

[MDstorm]

Water vapor looks beautiful.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20140212&endTime=-1&duration=12

 

 

MDstorm

[snowfan]

SREFs slightly east, pulls the 1" line east of area.

[snowfan]

NAM looking good for the front end.

[StudentOfClimatology]

NAM comes west a bit, big QPF bomb through 27hrs.

Edit: An absolute crushing on the front end..

[MN Transplant]

Maybe an hour faster with the heavy stuff and a few miles west with the axis. 8" at DCA by 4am.

[mattmfm]

SREF looks great, based on map--will have to wait for plumes--but less spread at 850, line over or tick east of DC at closest approach. Nice CCB showing up at 700RH