February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[nj2va]

Looks like 850's stay away from DC ....WOW great run!

 

On WxBell map, DC gets to about 0 at 12z, +1 at 18z Thursday, -5 by 00z Friday.  Looks like about .2 falls between 12z and 18z and another .4 after 18z.  

[HighStakes]

850's sketchy at 42. Not sure it matters. Widespread 6-10 before that. Front end is sick. Deform is bonus and unresolved

They crash pretty good shortly after hour 42.

[Deck Pic]

Wow still disagreement!  Hopefully last nights Euro verifies.

 

this one only gives you about 15"

[mitchnick]

Fri 6z surface is freaking warm for 1AM

[nj2va]

basically, DC gets 5-8", then mixes, then dryslots with light zr/drizzle/sleet/snow....then gets annihilated with the comma head....and probably picks up another 3-5"....based on euro...8-14" for DC and NW burbs and 12-18" for far NW burbs, and probably a swath of 18"+

 

yeah, the comma head is just sick.  this is a great run.

[mitchnick]

verbatim, surface is so warm late Thursday, I'm not sold what falls is snow

BWI is at 1.6C and DCA is like 2.4

hopefully, it's whacked

[Bob Chill]

They crash pretty good shortly after hour 42.

Game of inches man. If we don't dryslot/lull then there is no flip except brief pellets. I don't even care. It's not a front end thump. It's an uppercut and right cross

[Disc]

Euro all the way. 23" IMBY from this run and even cutting that in half is still a substantial event.

[HighStakes]

Fri 6z surface is freaking warm for 1AM

Just noticed that. Takes temps into mid 30's.

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Anyone have any colorized snowdepth maps for the Euro????

[NOVAForecaster]

[Deck Pic]

 

DCA

THU 06Z 13-FEB  -2.9    -3.2    1020      90      98    0.21     553     538    THU 12Z 13-FEB  -0.5    -0.4    1009      92     100    0.54     550     542    THU 18Z 13-FEB   1.0     1.7     996      92      77    0.24     543     546    FRI 00Z 14-FEB   1.1    -4.9     992      88      78    0.16     532     539    FRI 06Z 14-FEB   2.4    -1.6     996      80      84    0.21     533     536    

 

Thanks....Accuweather sometimes goofy....DCA gets .30" easily in the panel that has 0.16"

[mitchnick]

BWI 1.33" with a mess after 7" thump

[mitchnick]

Thanks....Accuweather sometimes goofy....DCA gets .30" easily in the panel that has 0.16"

this run is better than 12Z, hopefully, it moves closer to Ukie/NAM tomorrow

[Ji]

1.69 jyo

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Thanks.....Nice. I will consider 4 inches a success here in Ric.

[HighStakes]

Thanks....Accuweather sometimes goofy....DCA gets .30" easily in the panel that has 0.16"

Sometimes they are goofy but as of late they been matching wxbell pretty close.

[Deck Pic]

verbatim, surface is so warm late Thursday, I'm not sold what falls is snow

BWI is at 1.6C and DCA is like 2.4

hopefully, it's whacked

 

It ends at like 10pm..who cares what the temp is at 1am?

 

There will be more low level cold than modeled....when we are ripping deform it will be 32-33..

[Ji]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: JYO LAT= 39.08 LON= -77.57 ELE= 390

00Z FEB12

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

WED 00Z 12-FEB -4.9 -12.8 1031 52 12 0.00 546 522

WED 06Z 12-FEB -9.8 -11.4 1033 62 3 0.00 549 524

WED 12Z 12-FEB -12.4 -9.0 1034 59 3 0.00 553 527

WED 18Z 12-FEB -3.3 -8.2 1032 45 3 0.00 554 530

THU 00Z 13-FEB -5.1 -8.4 1027 75 63 0.00 554 533

THU 06Z 13-FEB -4.6 -4.8 1021 91 96 0.20 552 536

THU 12Z 13-FEB -2.5 -0.8 1011 92 99 0.51 549 540

THU 18Z 13-FEB -0.9 -1.7 1000 88 92 0.30 542 542

FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.5 -5.4 995 87 91 0.47 534 538

FRI 06Z 14-FEB 2.0 -2.4 997 77 43 0.18 533 535

FRI 12Z 14-FEB -3.9 -3.0 1003 83 10 0.00 537 535

FRI 18Z 14-FEB 4.5 -2.9 1003 64 61 0.00 540 538

SAT 00Z 15-FEB 2.5 -0.1 1003 79

[mitchnick]

It ends at like 10pm..who cares what the temp is at 1am?

 

There will be more low level cold than modeled....when we are ripping deform it will be 32-33..

well, I only have the 6 hr intervals so that sounds much better, of course

[Deck Pic]

Sometimes they are goofy but as of late they been matching wxbell pretty close.

 

what's wxbell have?...more than 0.16" 

[StudentOfClimatology]

this run is better than 12Z, hopefully, it moves closer to Ukie/NAM tomorrow

I like this run better than the NAM. I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket (the front end). The NAM is the latest to close off at H5 relative to every other model and is likely wrong with that idea.

If a brief changeover is required to attain the highest totals, then I'm all for it.

[clskinsfan]

Seriously? Wow. Well, this is it folks. Game on. 

Its crazy. Basically half the state of VA gets close to 20 inches. Remember that map is 10:1 ratios. Crippling storm for VA,

[mitchnick]

an inch Friday night too  

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Normally I hate depending on wrap around backlash moisture to really amount to anything.....but most of the models are in agreement , and someone could get several inches from it.

[jlewis1111]

how much does it show for ric with the wrap around?

[Ji]

Dissapointing that it didn't go back to epic from last night but this is an acceptable compromise

[Deck Pic]

well, I only have the 6 hr intervals so that sounds much better, of course

 

I think we do as I described.....thump, moderate sleet, dryslot with light precip unknown, deform at 32-33.....but yeah...the surface is always a worry.....

[Ji]

I think we do as I described.....thump, moderate sleet, dryslot with light precip unknown, deform at 32-33.....but yeah...the surface is always a worry.....

You'll get your usual storm saving deathband as it starts getting dark Thursdsy

[HighStakes]

what's wxbell have?...more than 0.16" 

Wxbell matches accuweather that panel. There is literally a small and dry precip hole in the middle of the deform band that runs almost right up 95 from DC to Annapolis to just north of Balt. All surrounding areas are 25-.30+. Can't be taken literal as it looks ridiculous.