February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[Deck Pic]

nice hit...better than 12z...healthier looking for sure....maybe a smidge east..still precip issues

[wxmeddler]

Strong, slow and coastal scraper.

[EasternUSWX]

Hr 48 is still rocking. Man these models are at war. 

[Deck Pic]

it is a really nice hit..984mb low just east of cape may...I dont see how we dont score...QPF in a sec

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hr 48 is still rocking. Man these models are at war. 

CCB love?

[yoda]

nice hit...better than 12z...healthier looking for sure....maybe a smidge east..still precip issues

 

Still good thump before 12z?

[Deck Pic]

deform looks WAY better than at 12z

[Ji]

So it's gfs vs euro ukmet nam and maybe ggem

[mitchnick]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[mitchnick]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[Deck Pic]

DCA/IAD - 1.5"+

[BTRWx]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

That looks amazing

[mitchnick]

48 hr RH 850

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

700mb

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[Deck Pic]

about 0.7" through 12z and colder at that point than last run though mixing likely

 

deform is sick on this run

[Bob Chill]

1.5+ everywhere

Gotta figure out midlevels

[mitchnick]

850 Temp at 48 hrs with wind streamlines

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h48&cu=latest

[Ji]

about 0.7" through 12z and colder at that point than last run though mixing likely

deform is sick on this run

So not as much through 12z as nam:(

[yoda]

about 0.7" through 12z and colder at that point than last run though mixing likely

 

deform is sick on this run

 

Nice QPF through 12z THUR... mmm I love deform talk like that   How sick we talking?

[Deck Pic]

massive hit for Loudoun county...15-20"

[Nor Easter]

Looks like 850's stay away from DC ....WOW great run!

[Deck Pic]

So not as much through 12z as nam:(

 

if this run verifies, with that deform, you probably get no less than 18"

[wxmeddler]

H5 and SFC completely stacked at HR 48. Just an absolute crush job for those who get banded.

[yoda]

H5 and SFC completly stacked at HR 48.

 

Capture eh?  Very nice

[HighStakes]

Deform band just keeps going.

[WEATHER53]

That 48 hour is DC snow perfection .

[Amped]

Wow still disagreement!  Hopefully last nights Euro verifies.

[Bob Chill]

850's sketchy at 42. Not sure it matters. Widespread 6-10 before that. Front end is sick. Deform is bonus and unresolved

[mitchnick]

DCA

THU 06Z 13-FEB  -2.9    -3.2    1020      90      98    0.21     553     538    THU 12Z 13-FEB  -0.5    -0.4    1009      92     100    0.54     550     542    THU 18Z 13-FEB   1.0     1.7     996      92      77    0.24     543     546    FRI 00Z 14-FEB   1.1    -4.9     992      88      78    0.16     532     539    FRI 06Z 14-FEB   2.4    -1.6     996      80      84    0.21     533     536    

[clskinsfan]

Deform just doesnt end. Please let this run verify.

[Deck Pic]

basically, DC gets 5-8", then mixes, then dryslots with light zr/drizzle/sleet/snow....then gets annihilated with the comma head....and probably picks up another 3-5"....based on euro...8-14" for DC and NW burbs and 12-18" for far NW burbs, and probably a swath of 18"+